Let's be honest. The US economy got exposed.

[Jhhnn]

Gawd. We were already at the tail end of an overblown business cycle. It was clearly ready to fall down when the Fed stepped in to prop up the repo market last September. It's all about the bond market & the highly leveraged & hedged positions underlying it.

 

[vi edit]

I'm not going to take a position on if this is ultimately a good thing or a bad thing, but it's definitely "a thing".

I was on a 600 person WebEx yesterday where the CIO was giving an update and holding back tears telling us she was packing up her office today and planning to not to return to it. And that we'll be doing the same. We'll be displacing thousands of workers from a downtown office space to their homes. Leases are looking to eventually be cancelled. That's just one employer, in one city. We are by far not alone. The downstream could be chilling if this is done on a large scale. Office space will fail to be leased. Downtown vendors will close up. Private vehicle use and fuel consumption will be way down which impacts the auto and oil industries. "Business" clothing is much less reduced impacting retail. And so on.

And this is just for people that have jobs. We've built an economy on excess. It wasn't structured to handle non-excess.

 

[mect]

I nice comparison I heard about the US economy. Its like a high end sports car with every safety feature removed. It can fly when things are going well. When things aren't, its going to crash, and it isn't pretty.

 

[blackangst1]

Yes, but if people were doing as well as many were to believe we could weather this much better. The fact is this is going to destroy many people. We are going to see historic rates of depression. The housing market will eventually be crushed. Savings depleted. Financial ruin for many. I might sound negative, but I'd rather see this for what it is, and not have the flse hope that everything will magically be fine. We shall see. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

Unfortunately this is the result of social distancing, etc which is needed for this virus. The only way to have prevented this is for no stay at home orders and no social distancing.

 

[woolfe9998]

Unfortunately this is the result of social distancing, etc which is needed for this virus. The only way to have prevented this is for no stay at home orders and no social distancing.

You can't have "no social distancing" during a pandemic. Even if you have no lockdowns, people are going to stay at home as much as possible out of fear. Which is why the economy is not going to rebound quickly even if the lockdowns are all ended for good by late June.

 

[Mai72]

The unemployment rate before COVID-19 was about 3.5%. The lowest in recent memory, but that never told the full story. It's why I said that our economy got exposed. The economy might had been at 3.5% but many of those who were working were gig workers making minimum wage. Or, many are cashiers who are making $12 an hour. An unlivable wage no matter how you cut it. My point is so many of us were living in denial. For example, I have a buddy who was trying to argue that his $15 an hour is enough money and that all of his needs are met. I then asked him why hasn't he moved out of his parent's home yet? He's in his mid-30s, and still living at home. Hey, if he's happy good for him. I don't think he is, and I wouldn't want to be in his position. IMO, he is living in denial. That was most of America before this pandemic. Living in denial that everything is perfectly fine.

I just had read an article that the public schools are worried that they may not be able to open in the fall. If we get hit hard again and have to go thru the second round of state closures we are in real trouble. It's going to be bad. Im sorry if I sound negative, but I'd rather have this mindset, be proactive with my time while I can, than be taken by suprise when the sh*t hits the fan.

 

[blackangst1]

You can't have "no social distancing" during a pandemic. Even if you have no lockdowns, people are going to stay at home as much as possible out of fear. Which is why the economy is not going to rebound quickly even if the lockdowns are all ended for good by late June.

Right which is exactly my point. The people that are most affected by loss of jobs are those in the service industry who mingle with the public. Could Trump have had a more positive effect on this? Absolutely, But no matter what he could have done, nothing would have stopped the economy from crashing or loss of jobs.

 

[Mai72]

You can't have "no social distancing" during a pandemic. Even if you have no lockdowns, people are going to stay at home as much as possible out of fear. Which is why the economy is not going to rebound quickly even if the lockdowns are all ended for good by late June.

Agreed. it's not going to be a V-shape rebiund like many people are hoping for. This is going to be a long retracted recovery that could take years. Possibly even a decade.

 

[woolfe9998]

Agreed. it's not going to be a V-shape rebiund like many people are hoping for. This is going to be a long retracted recovery that could take years. Possibly even a decade.

Protracted, yes. Damn, I hope recovery doesn't take a decade like you're suggesting.

 

[iRONic]

I'm not going to take a position on if this is ultimately a good thing or a bad thing, but it's definitely "a thing".

I was on a 600 person WebEx yesterday where the CIO was giving an update and holding back tears telling us she was packing up her office today and planning to not to return to it. And that we'll be doing the same. We'll be displacing thousands of workers from a downtown office space to their homes. Leases are looking to eventually be cancelled. That's just one employer, in one city. We are by far not alone. The downstream could be chilling if this is done on a large scale. Office space will fail to be leased. Downtown vendors will close up. Private vehicle use and fuel consumption will be way down which impacts the auto and oil industries. "Business" clothing is much less reduced impacting retail. And so on.

And this is just for people that have jobs. We've built an economy on excess. It wasn't structured to handle non-excess.

Same thing happened 3 weeks ago at my wife's Fortune 100 employer. They are divesting leases and property downtown as well.

Ripple effect may get tsunami-size...

 

[eelw]

I’m still waiting for Biden administration to review the job numbers these past 3 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trumpity Dumpity fudged these numbers lower than they actually are. Like how he said not to trust Obama’s unemployment rate. Double it. In this case, quadruple it.

 

[Wreckem]

Same thing happened 3 weeks ago at my wife's Fortune 100 employer. They are divesting leases and property downtown as well.

Ripple effect may get tsunami-size...

And this is all because working from home is just as productive as being at a centralized location in most cases were work from home is feasible.

Teaching unfortunately is not one of those things that is effective from home. It sort of works for college age students but drastically works less the younger you get.

Im still holding out hope that this will allow for reform of school calendars and how long school days are. We should be start school mid morning around 10am and ending around 2. School years should be longer. School days should be shorter. There are plenty of studies on how this would improve and close education gaps. We don’t do this because the education system currently is seen as babysitter.

 

[hal2kilo]

And this is all because working from home is just as productive as being at a centralized location in most cases were work from home is feasible.

Teaching unfortunately is not one of those things that is effective from home. It sort of works for college age students but drastically works less the younger you get.

Im still holding out hope that this will allow for reform of school calendars and how long school days are. We should be start school mid morning around 10am and ending around 2. School years should be longer. School days should be shorter. There are plenty of studies on how this would improve and close education gaps. We don’t do this because the education system currently is seen as babysitter.

Looks like Twitter is making the work at home thing permanent if you want.

Twitter Makes Working From Home a Permanent Option for Some Employees

'The past few months have proven we can make that work,' a Twitter spokesperson said on the company's decision to make working from home a permanent option for some employees.

www.entrepreneur.com

 

[Muse]

If Basic Income and Housing were covered by a safety net, the economy could take a hit and it would cause far less fear, anxiety, and violence as a result. Our people would be in a FAR better position to weather storms like this without risk of losing everything. By risk I mean certainty (in this case). The consequences of this year's economic collapse are going to be far, wide, and long lasting.

You forgot one more element of a safety net against an emergency of this sort (huge, far reaching) and that's health care.

 

[Muse]

Unfortunately this is the result of social distancing, etc which is needed for this virus. The only way to have prevented this is for no stay at home orders and no social distancing.

You can't imagine how ugly that would have gotten. The nature of the collapse that would create.

 

[Muse]

Right which is exactly my point. The people that are most affected by loss of jobs are those in the service industry who mingle with the public. Could Trump have had a more positive effect on this? Absolutely, But no matter what he could have done, nothing would have stopped the economy from crashing or loss of jobs.

No, Trump blew our chance to proactively prepare for the onslaught by insisting on denying it was coming for as long as he possibly could. Even now he proclaims at times (with no conviction behind it) that things will be swimmingly fine in short order. Testing, PPE, ventilators, contact tracing infrastructure, an intelligent overseer would have been all over that. He should have appointed a covid-19 czar but did not. Instead he eventually (and very late) appointed two competing task forces headed by Pence and his son-in-law, neither of which were capable. He should never have scuttled the pandemic response team early in his administration that Obama had put in place. We could have been, should be miles ahead of where we are.

 

[blackangst1]

No, Trump blew our chance to proactively prepare for the onslaught by insisting on denying it was coming for as long as he possibly could. Even now he proclaims at times (with no conviction behind it) that things will be swimmingly fine in short order. Testing, PPE, ventilators, contact tracing infrastructure, an intelligent overseer would have been all over that. He should have appointed a covid-19 czar but did not. Instead he eventually (and very late) appointed two competing task forces headed by Pence and his son-in-law, neither of which were capable. He should never have scuttled the pandemic response team early in his administration that Obama had put in place. We could have been, should be miles ahead of where we are.

So, how many jobs could he have saved? Since we're, ya know, talking about the economy....

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

Is it any surprise? People keep zero savings, they eat out at $40+ on a regular basis, drive expensive cars they can't afford, buy $1000 phones on credit, etc.. Anyone with half a brain should have known the good times don't last forever.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

So, how many jobs could he have saved? Since we're, ya know, talking about the economy....

Pretty much go hand in hand IMO. We should be on the downside of this thing at this point with competent leadership. Now we are looking at a long recovery with a lot of hardships along the way. This idiot has turned the virus into a political issue now. Instead of it being based on science and facts this fool has a base of people who believe that masks are stupid and that it's all a hoax.

 

[ElFenix]

The unemployment rate before COVID-19 was about 3.5%. The lowest in recent memory, but that never told the full story. It's why I said that our economy got exposed. The economy might had been at 3.5% but many of those who were working were gig workers making minimum wage. Or, many are cashiers who are making $12 an hour. An unlivable wage no matter how you cut it. My point is so many of us were living in denial. .

This was the point AOC was making when with the "everyone is working two jobs" quote. Yeah unemployment is low but it doesn't tell the whole story. For example, lots of people have to work multiple jobs to make ends meet.

The mouth breathers who are desperately trying to convince themselves that she's a moron ran with hurr durr she thinks people working two jerbs get counted twice hurrr

 

[Svnla]

Don't forget the states, counties, cities, and towns. Their budgets are blow up into pieces and most, if not all, are in serious trouble because of the shortages in much lower sale tax, and lower income from revenues/fees of consumption and lower revenue from lower gasoline usage. Plus the high payout from the high number of unemployed workers. Talk about double whammies. Just from NY State, it is short by $15 Billion (for now) from this virus per CNBC source.

Unlike Federal government, they must balance their budgets each and every year. Scary indeed if this virus is not getting better.

State budget hits due to coronavirus are trickling in and it's not pretty

States are reporting the first tax revenue decimated by the coronavirus pandemic. Georgia, Texas, Pennsylvania and Tennessee are seeing big declines.

www.usatoday.com

 

[nickqt]

Capitalism as a State Religion means that wealthy individuals and the corporations they own and operate are not just allowed, but rewarded for extracting as close to 100% of "inefficiency" out of the economy. They keep those inefficiencies, or profits, for themselves and the people who give them money, passing crumbs to the politicians who pass the laws that they write. And the rich they use those profits to further entrench into law their ability to retain their wealth and get even more. Hence, the rise in billionaires over the past 40 years.

More billionaires necessarily mean that there is less inefficiencies in the economy. I mean, it doesn't matter about the wealth they "create", the actual capital came from somewhere, which is why banks are basically the fists of corporations.

For those of us who aren't rich (anything under $20m liquidity or $50m total wealth isn't rich, by the way, just comfortable), inefficiencies are what "everyone else" literally survives on. Rather than inefficiencies in the economy (fair prices for natural resources, fair prices for labor) allowing most Americans to live a comfortable and secure life, they are squeezed tighter and tighter by the wealthy and the politicians they control, so that even people who are middle class are just 3-4 paychecks away from debt, or bankruptcy...never mind losing their job for months-to-years.

The less "inefficiency" in the market, the less money for everyone else. Period.

Inefficiencies in the economy is pretty much how every single person on these forums makes their living.

When society hits a crisis like COVID, which attenuates the total amount of money being spent into the economy, then "everyone else" is stuck trying to live on savings. And let's be real fucking clear, the rich, who own and operate this economy, do not want people to save money, because ALL of their wealth is created by everyone else spending money on stuff, which is what creates the inefficiencies. They're still getting the majority of the little bit created, and well, the rest of us...hope you have an "essential" job.

The rich will be just fine, and the richest of the rich are going to make A FUCKING KILLING during and after this. If you disagree that's fine, but you're incredibly naive and absolutely wrong.

So, the obvious solution is to claim what we were promised by the capitalists when it was Capitalism vs Communism: fewer hours and better benefits for our continued approval and support of an economic system where the rich can use their money to become richer. A 30 Hour full-time work week, minimum wage of $15, universal health care, and tax credits/laws that encourage corporations to not be a cancer on society (feeding as much as possible under color of law on natural resources and the people in society, destroying the society in the process).

Or, we can just let as many people die as it takes to get the economy working for the rich again, while most people remain living on the brink of bankruptcy. And, by the way, the rich who own and operate this economy want everyone to live on the brink of bankruptcy, so they're scared of losing their job/healthcare. It means less time for critical thinking about how things could be better, and more time spent just to stay in place.

No, it's not communism, it's social democracy. Purse makers can still make purses and charge what they want. Same for cars, electronics, anything that isn't essential. At least, that's where we should be aiming for, if we want to be a functioning society. Of course, for the rich, they don't need a functioning society, they just need armed guards and politicians.

 

[local]

Trump cannot let the economy fail and he will go to extreme lengths to keep it from dying. I am betting that more and more people will jump on his open everything up bandwagon when the choice is between becoming homeless and exposing yourself to the virus or exposing yourself to the virus while trying to work/shop/eat/whatever. I fully expect emergency approval to use one of the vaccines without full 3rd phase trials by this fall. Right now I don't plan on taking one without full testing but who knows how I will feel in a few months.

 

[Muse]

So, how many jobs could he have saved? Since we're, ya know, talking about the economy....

Millions for sure.

 

[sactoking]

I work in a city of about 250,000. The overall region is about 450,000. My employer is an integrated health system with over 7,000 employees. Just found out yesterday that 600+ people, myself included, are now permanent work from home. My employer owns a TON of property in the region. Looking to divest a big chunk of that. The economy of the region isn't going to recover from this type of monumental shift in employment any time soon.