Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Dissipate
Originally posted by: Chunkee
What about the banks that have been somewhat fiscally responsible? Credit Unions, Smaller Home Town banks etc... If the larger banks go belly up...could not the smaller ones thrive?
I have a BofA account...If I took my business to a local credit union, would that not help the LOCAL economy and help the bank that did not make poor decisions, squander money, and pay CEOs ungodly amounts of money and bonuses? Would this work? Let the behemoths die off and let the little guy get a chance to grow a bit?
Have you ever heard of a 'run on the bank?' That is exactly what you would have if the big banks went belly up. You would have a general panic and a total collapse of the banking system.
I think this is one key point people miss. Not only will big banks collapse but small banks will collapse also. The entire system will be chaos. Overnight lending will stop, money market funds will stop, companies will be without ANY liquidity. The result of that is insolvency for many major companies within 24 hours. Within 48 hours that would spread internationally as ALL capital market lending halts. Stock markets would probably fall 50%+ within 24 hours.
After the massive amount of equity is evaporated, the global wealth pool would be immensely damaged. Thus, even though the big banks are gone, the little banks (those that survived the run) wouldn't have any ability to lend anyway, since nobody will deposit funds and there is no loans for them to take in order to lend. Nobody will give them equity since everybody would fear a run on that bank.
People say it never got that bad during the GD. Great, but this is an entirely different banking system. Where runs used to be people sitting outside the banks in lines, now at a keystroke hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidity can be gone.
The type of operational structure we have now is awesome when it works and can be downright frightening when it doesn't.
To think that it's as simple as letting big banks fail, having a 2-week market spasm, and then everything moves along A-OK is stupid. It'd take years before the system even started looking like a shadow of its former self. The world probably won't recover for a decade, if not longer.
This isn't a fearmongering post either,
it's simple reality of what would happen.