Hayabusa Rider
Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
- Jan 26, 2000
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Originally posted by: jbourne77
It's interesting that you bring this up, as I was just discussing this with my students a few days ago. I'm teaching an Operations Research course this semester and I was discussing Linear Programming. For those of you unfamiliar, in a nutshell, it's one way (of many) to mathematically model a problem in order to find an optimal solution. You basically define your variables, then constraints, then you define the objective which is subject to those constraints. When properly defined, you end up with an enclosed area bound by a line representing each constraint, and your objective "pushes" you to a vertex of this area, with the idea being that said vertex is your optimal solution.
One student had the idea of trying model best-outcomes for government policies. Realistically speaking, the notion is absurd, but it spawned some very interesting discussion, especially when people started considering the constraints that we would need to impose. It quickly became apparent that it would be impossible to define any constraints without creating an invalid model (one with no enclosed area caused by conflicting constraints).
Of course, our discussion was an awful simplification of one of humanity's most complex problems, made even more complex by differing values, agendas, and priorities. Regardless, it was fun to talk about. I continued reflecting on this for a couple days. Finally I realized that I can't even reconcile several of MY OWN ideas... how the hell can it be possible for our government or society to make any inroads whatsoever.
Political agreement is impossible, for many of us cannot even agree with ourselves. The notion that we can convince someone else of our position is downright hysterical, even if you remove the element of ego.
It wasn't always this bad. Once upon a time things were heated (they are always were), but one side understood that the other was trying to do good although in a way they disagreed with. Of course that's a generalization, but I think a fair one.
These days it's qualitatively different. The liberals assume that the conservatives are evil and vice versa. When one considers the opposition in that light, debate becomes war.
Regarding your thought experiment (which I find intriguing), you more or less tried to play Hari Seldon. Asimov had faith in a determinate universe, where mere processing power was all that was needed to account for human activities into some arbitrary future date. What he failed to consider was Gödel, who effectively described our situation. In effect we cannot account for future actions because we do not know the full range of actions we might take in response to any given situation. Although behavior isn't random it is chaotic, tending towards certain resolutions of problems, however precision is inherently impossible. There is no algorithm which can describe it, and therefore it's impossible to resolve.
One might say that in the future a machine intelligence may come about which is "above" our "set" of behaviors, but since whatever we develop is a byproduct of the universe of our possible actions, it would be linked to us. Therefore I think it fundamentally impossible to do what you attempted.
Thinking is fun!
