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Latest Polls and Averages - Real Clear Politics.com

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Do you research these things before you post?

Originally posted by: ntdz
Originally posted by: conjur
Then tell me why Gallup and others were so wrong in the 2000 election but Zogby was the only one showing Gore winning the popular vote by a small margin?

Hmm??

other polls were wrong in gore's favor! zogby's tracking polls just aren't truthworthy, they're done on the internet. Zogby got lucky, they picked the right sample at the end of hte race, thats ALL. These polls are a general snapshot, they aren't supposed to be exactly right, they just show a very general direction the race is headed. And right now, the race clearly is going in bush's favor.



http://archives.cnn.com/2000/A...nntime.poll/index.html

http://www.newsmax.com/archive...2000/11/7/143653.shtml


http://www.abilene2000.com/elec/polls1017.html

CNN-USA Today-Gallup
? Bush, 47 percent
? Gore, 44 percent
? Nader, 3 percent
? Buchanan, 1 percent


ICR
? Bush, 42 percent
? Gore, 39 percent
? Nader, 7 percent
? Buchanan, 2 percent


NBC-Wall Street Journal
? Bush, 48 percent
? Gore 42 percent
? Nader, 5 percent
? Buchanan, 1 percent
 
New poll by Opinion Dynamics out today: Bush 49% Kerry 42%.

I don't think Bush will win by that much... but I believe he'll do better than most people think on popular vote, probably winning by 3% or so. I still think Bush could win the popular but lose the electoral with an upset in Florida or Ohio. It would be interesting to see all the Gore-nutballs backtrack on their "popular vote matters" mantra.

My most basic instinct still tells me no presidential candidate has ever won using a foundation of negativism, and basically saying we should fear the president, fear the administration, etc. Challengers should always focus on how they can make things better and have a positive vision. I don't think Kerry has effectively got that message across... people just don't know him.
 
Engineer, looking at those polls from 2000 it makes me think of a few things.

a) this is the most speculative: I bet a lot of those Nader votes switch to Gore last minute
b) the Bush drunk driving bombshell broke by Fox News in last 4 days
c) the shameless, lying "medi-scare" fear tactic offensive launched by Gore in last 5 days.
d) lower than normal turnout by Reps
 
Originally posted by: cwjerome
Engineer, looking at those polls from 2000 it makes me think of a few things.

a) this is the most speculative: I bet a lot of those Nader votes switch to Gore last minute
b) the Bush drunk driving bombshell broke by Fox News in last 4 days
c) the shameless, lying "medi-scare" fear tactic offensive launched by Gore in last 5 days.
d) lower than normal turnout by Reps


Gore's gone...it was in response to nutz proposing that the 2000 polls leading up to the election were in favor of Gore.
 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Do you research these things before you post?

Originally posted by: ntdz
Originally posted by: conjur
Then tell me why Gallup and others were so wrong in the 2000 election but Zogby was the only one showing Gore winning the popular vote by a small margin?

Hmm??

other polls were wrong in gore's favor! zogby's tracking polls just aren't truthworthy, they're done on the internet. Zogby got lucky, they picked the right sample at the end of hte race, thats ALL. These polls are a general snapshot, they aren't supposed to be exactly right, they just show a very general direction the race is headed. And right now, the race clearly is going in bush's favor.



http://archives.cnn.com/2000/A...nntime.poll/index.html

http://www.newsmax.com/archive...2000/11/7/143653.shtml


http://www.abilene2000.com/elec/polls1017.html

CNN-USA Today-Gallup
? Bush, 47 percent
? Gore, 44 percent
? Nader, 3 percent
? Buchanan, 1 percent


ICR
? Bush, 42 percent
? Gore, 39 percent
? Nader, 7 percent
? Buchanan, 2 percent


NBC-Wall Street Journal
? Bush, 48 percent
? Gore 42 percent
? Nader, 5 percent
? Buchanan, 1 percent

great, and there were polls that said gore was winning...but you dont post those convieniently.

Edit: I never said or implied ALL the other polls were in Gore's favor, just some of them.
 
Originally posted by: ntdz
great, and there were polls that said gore was winning...but you dont post those convieniently.

Edit: I never said or implied ALL the other polls were in Gore's favor, just some of them.

Please post them.....I went through 3 pages of Yahoo and Google...that's what I found. The only one I didn't post was from a self professed Conservative publication.

I'll be waiting. Seems to me that ALL of them other than Zogby were in favor of Bush?

 
Originally posted by: cwjerome
New poll by Opinion Dynamics out today: Bush 49% Kerry 42%.

I don't think Bush will win by that much... but I believe he'll do better than most people think on popular vote, probably winning by 3% or so. I still think Bush could win the popular but lose the electoral with an upset in Florida or Ohio. It would be interesting to see all the Gore-nutballs backtrack on their "popular vote matters" mantra.

My most basic instinct still tells me no presidential candidate has ever won using a foundation of negativism, and basically saying we should fear the president, fear the administration, etc. Challengers should always focus on how they can make things better and have a positive vision. I don't think Kerry has effectively got that message across... people just don't know him.
That's just utter tripe.

NBC/WSJ poll showed 33% thought Kerry came out of the debates as a stronger candidate, Bush only got 17%.

Kerry is connecting more and more and so is Edwards. Otoh, we have Cheney "Grooowlll...grrrrrr" suitcase nukes! Grrroooowwwwlllll!! And Bush "healthcare is fine...stop whining."
 
Virtually every poll said Kerry won the debates, but that doesn't necessarily translate into votes. Kerry has squandered his debate boost. He's got the "anybody but Bush" crowd, but I don't think he's connected with the masses. People know Bush and they know what he's about... that's what it's coming down to, has Kerry effectively gotten his message across? I say no. A lot of people don't really know what this guy is about.

What it boils down to is the Dems nominated a dud, and the campaign strats have been faulty. This was was an easy win, and I think they blew it. Conjur, ya can't base everything on polls... you gotta have expert analysis also... that's why I'm here 😉
 
Originally posted by: cwjerome
I'm not saying Bush is trouncing Kerry, I'm saying he has surged while Kerry is flat, which is what polls and pundits say. Don't get jittery and desperate, and I'm not buying that all polls that show Bush up are skewed, adn all polls that don't are correct. Even if that were true, the fact that they have gone up from previous scores indicates a trend.

Yes BBond, a dovish Lib. He was anti-Vietnam war, for massive UN control over our foreign policy, against the military build up of the 80s, against star wars, FOR a nuclear freeze, against Gulf War 1, consistently voted against most major armaments, the CIA, and intelligence. He's been a liberal senator from Massachusetts and no friend of the military.

Boomark my last post, that's how it is folks 😉

Bush's numbers have been dropping since the Republican hate-fest. The polls are skewed so Bush can justify the theft of his second election. They can point to their skewed pre-election poll results and claim the polls were right all along.

Kerry was in combat in Vietnam. Where was Bush?

What "massive UN control over foreign policy"? I understand you prefer no control to the point of making up information to attack a nation that isn't a threat, so coming from that far out in right field, just what do you call "massive UN control" anyway?

Dick Cheney took responsibility for the defense cuts but he, his party, and apparently his supporters seem to have election stimulated amnesia about it now.

Star Wars was a boondoggle when Reagan proposed it and it still doesn't work. It needlessly escalated the nuclear arms race and wasted billions of dollars. It will cost upwards of $25 billion for 2005/2006. Bush was fixated on missile defense when he was being warned about terrorism, which he ignored. Wise decision in retrospect? Bush hasn't given up and he's still underfunding Homeland Security while Bechtel and others make billions on missile defense that has to be 'choreographed' to hit anything but the ocean under the test site.

Is there any sane human being AGAINST a nuclear freeze???! Oh, Bush. He wants a new class of battle field nuclear weapons that can actually be used in combat.

Kerry voted against the first Gulf war because he believed diplomatic efforts hadn't been exhausted and Bush1 was rushing to war. The story U.S. Ambassador April Gilespie taking Bush's message to Saddam that the U.S. had no opinion on Arab/Arab conflicts and that America was not associated with Kuwait giving Saddam the green light he was looking for since he believed Kuwait was part of Iraq anyway. The results of the 1991 Gulf War were dubious at best. At least Bush1 knew enough not to go into Baghdad. If only his son had known as much.

I'm sick of people who use the word 'liberal' as a pejorative. Liberals ideals were the force behind the creation of the middle class. Liberals brought us out of the Great Depression and improved the lot of millions of American workers. After witnessing what so called 'conservatives' have done over the past four years, I much prefer a liberal.

And what do you people have against the great state of Massachusettes? The birthplace of the revolution. A state that contributes far more to America in tax dollars than they get in return. The neocon habit of dividing Americans is really deplorable. But I suppose it's the only way you people can win as a radical, marginalized minority.

 
Originally posted by: cwjerome
Virtually every poll said Kerry won the debates, but that doesn't necessarily translate into votes. Kerry has squandered his debate boost. He's got the "anybody but Bush" crowd, but I don't think he's connected with the masses. People know Bush and they know what he's about... that's what it's coming down to, has Kerry effectively gotten his message across? I say no. A lot of people don't really know what this guy is about.

What it boils down to is the Dems nominated a dud, and the campaign strats have been faulty. This was was an easy win, and I think they blew it. Conjur, ya can't base everything on polls... you gotta have expert analysis also... that's why I'm here 😉

Weren't you the guy complaining about partisan politics last night?

If people know Bush and what he's about they'll vote for Kerry in record numbers. The problem is we don't hear about what Bush is really about. Just slogans and his Jay Leno impression of stump speech one-liners.

He promised to outline a clear plan for the next four years at the Republican Convention but the convention was only a hate fest. His administraion hides behind an unprecedented cloak of secrecy. The Bush policies we do see are disasters. Iraq, the economy, jobs, the environment, health care, 'homeland security, all disasters. And not even the ability to admit ONE mistake.

As far as your expert analysis, I'm sure everyone here is aware of your value as a pundit. :disgust:

 
Jesus....

You say Bush's numbers have been dropping since their "hate-fest"... I assume you mean convention. How can anyone take what you say seriously with all your over-the-top hate-rhetoric?? Anyways, his numbers went up very well after the convention and dropped since the debates, and are now edging upwards. I advise you to look at the major running polls going since August.

Kerry was in combat in Vietnam. Great for him... that makes him a hawk? I figure you'd crap on the people of the National Guard like it's nothing. During the 70s he advocated more UN involvement (and even approval) in our foreign policy decisions and even went so far as to say all international actions taken by the US should be under UN control. He says those were emotional statements made long ago, but it gives insight into the thinking of a guy who is suspicious of our military and craves international approval. And the bottom line is he was anti-war, ie. "dove". He wanted to abolish the CIA!!

Throughout his Senate career he was a typical East-coast arch liberal like Kennedy and Dukakis. He voted consistently against military weapons systems and voted against defense spending increases. He was against Reagan's aggresive military stance, against the arms race, and advocated the nuclear freeze strategy... all of which put him on the wrong side of history. He was against star wars, against the Gulf War, voted to gut the military in the 90s, voted to lower the intelligence budget after the first WTC bombing, etc etc.

I am not necessarily saying any of this is good or bad, I am stating facts to show he was a dove. I can't believe you are even arguing this, lol. You bring up Cheney, criticize star wars, and defend his actions in the Gulf War... who cares? I'm not defending any of that, I'm giving evidence that shows Kerry is/was a dove. Type "dove" "hawk" and "1980s" into google... and learn damnit.

As far as the word liberal goes, make up your own conclusion. And your last paragraph is meaningless rant... nothing to comment on there.
 
Originally posted by: cwjerome
Jesus....

You say Bush's numbers have been dropping since their "hate-fest"... I assume you mean convention. How can anyone take what you say seriously with all your over-the-top hate-rhetoric?? Anyways, his numbers went up very well after the convention and dropped since the debates, and are now edging upwards. I advise you to look at the major running polls going since August.

Kerry was in combat in Vietnam. Great for him... that makes him a hawk? I figure you'd crap on the people of the National Guard like it's nothing. During the 70s he advocated more UN involvement (and even approval) in our foreign policy decisions and even went so far as to say all international actions taken by the US should be under UN control. He says those were emotional statements made long ago, but it gives insight into the thinking of a guy who is suspicious of our military and craves international approval. And the bottom line is he was anti-war, ie. "dove". He wanted to abolish the CIA!!

Throughout his Senate career he was a typical East-coast arch liberal like Kennedy and Dukakis. He voted consistently against military weapons systems and voted against defense spending increases. He was against Reagan's aggresive military stance, against the arms race, and advocated the nuclear freeze strategy... all of which put him on the wrong side of history. He was against star wars, against the Gulf War, voted to gut the military in the 90s, voted to lower the intelligence budget after the first WTC bombing, etc etc.

I am not necessarily saying any of this is good or bad, I am stating facts to show he was a dove. I can't believe you are even arguing this, lol. You bring up Cheney, criticize star wars, and defend his actions in the Gulf War... who cares? I'm not defending any of that, I'm giving evidence that shows Kerry is/was a dove. Type "dove" "hawk" and "1980s" into google... and learn damnit.

As far as the word liberal goes, make up your own conclusion. And your last paragraph is meaningless rant... nothing to comment on there.

I pegged you right when you were talking all that above-the-partisan-politics BS last night.

You're a closet neocon. Too insecure to admit it and unable to respond to facts. Just keep repeating the hate radio talking points.

 
Originally posted by: cwjerome
Jesus....

You say Bush's numbers have been dropping since their "hate-fest"... I assume you mean convention. How can anyone take what you say seriously with all your over-the-top hate-rhetoric?? Anyways, his numbers went up very well after the convention and dropped since the debates, and are now edging upwards. I advise you to look at the major running polls going since August.
Did you not watch that hate-fest? That's what the RNC was.

Kerry was in combat in Vietnam. Great for him... that makes him a hawk? I figure you'd crap on the people of the National Guard like it's nothing. During the 70s he advocated more UN involvement (and even approval) in our foreign policy decisions and even went so far as to say all international actions taken by the US should be under UN control. He says those were emotional statements made long ago, but it gives insight into the thinking of a guy who is suspicious of our military and craves international approval. And the bottom line is he was anti-war, ie. "dove". He wanted to abolish the CIA!!
Abolish the CIA? Hunh? And, he doesn't crave international approval. However, Kerry would be sure we could justify any military action to not only America, but the rest of the world, too.

Throughout his Senate career he was a typical East-coast arch liberal like Kennedy and Dukakis. He voted consistently against military weapons systems and voted against defense spending increases. He was against Reagan's aggresive military stance, against the arms race, and advocated the nuclear freeze strategy... all of which put him on the wrong side of history. He was against star wars, against the Gulf War, voted to gut the military in the 90s, voted to lower the intelligence budget after the first WTC bombing, etc etc.
He voted against the same weapons systems Dick Cheney and other Republicans wanted to cut. He voted along with Republicans, including following Sec'y of Defense Cheney's recommendations, to cut military programs in the 90s. He voted to cut the intelligence budget because a $1 billion hidden surplus was found. He voted against the first Gulf War along with 46 other Senators in a 52-47 vote. In fact, he was right to do so as part of the evidence was FAKED SATELLITE IMAGES showing Iraqi troops and tanks on the Saudi border where there were NONE.

Stop spreading lies and distortions that have been debunked for MONTHS.
 
BBond, saying Kerry was not a good pick and that the campaign has been run shoddily is partisan? Why? Maybe in your world any criticism of your savior is partisan... but not in the real world. How can anyone who reads my post you quoted think I was a partisan? I am not lying, I am not pushing for one candidate, I am not trying to sell propaganda, I am not making huge value-judgements on the candidate's issues... I am giving my interpretation of the polls and why Kerry is lagging when he shouldn't be. Look at your response and compare it to mine... seriously, read them both... you give a biased laundry list of things showing why Bush sucks so much... now that IS partisan kiddo.
 
Boy you guys sure get nasty don't you. Conjur, you calling the RNC a hate-fest is like Rhode Island calling Alaska small. It's just a biased judgement, so stop spreading your mean-spirited partisanship. How can you people claim to fight hate with hate? I swear the attacks around here are so hateful and vitriolic. Don't you fear-mongers know that overall there's about .5% difference between Kerry and Bush? You act like Bush is the devil incarnate and Kerry will save the world! Get a grip.

You guys try and qualify every little thing he did in desperate attempts to save his image, but who gives a flip? I am not arguing why, and I am not justifying anything.... I was showing what he's done to be considered a dove. Lies and distortions? You must be reading the DNC playbook again, my partisan friends. The fact that you guys are religiously fighting an absurd battle to say that Kerry hasn't been considered a dove is beyond all pale. There is simply no argument there... you must not know what a dove and hawk is in the context of the last 30 years.

One word: wow
 
One word: Wow.


Good job in completely distorting the facts and my viewpoint. No sane person can deny the RNC wasn't a hate-fest. Two more words: Zell Miller. He summed up the general theme of that convention.

And, there's MUCH more than .5% difference between Bush and Kerry. You're just into complete and utter hyperbole now. As for a DNC playbook, since you seem so knowledgeable on it, care to point a link to it? I'd like to see this "DNC playbook".


Still waiting on your proof Kerry wanted to abolish the CIA.

And, your failure to respond on my remaining points is duly noted.
 
Originally posted by: conjur
One word: Wow.


Good job in completely distorting the facts and my viewpoint. No sane person can deny the RNC wasn't a hate-fest. Two more words: Zell Miller. He summed up the general theme of that convention.

And, there's MUCH more than .5% difference between Bush and Kerry. You're just into complete and utter hyperbole now. As for a DNC playbook, since you seem so knowledgeable on it, care to point a link to it? I'd like to see this "DNC playbook".


Still waiting on your proof Kerry wanted to abolish the CIA.

And, your failure to respond on my remaining points is duly noted.

you say a bunch of rubbish and expect everyone to respond to everything you say? You call the RNC a hate fest and all you do on this board, day in, day out, nearly 24/7...is hate on bush. It's hipocracy at it's greatest level. I'm not afraid to admit I'm conservative, I'm proud of it, why isn't Kerry proud of being a liberal? Oh yeah, because Americans, rightly so, have a negative attitude about them.
 
Originally posted by: ntdz
Originally posted by: conjur
One word: Wow.


Good job in completely distorting the facts and my viewpoint. No sane person can deny the RNC wasn't a hate-fest. Two more words: Zell Miller. He summed up the general theme of that convention.

And, there's MUCH more than .5% difference between Bush and Kerry. You're just into complete and utter hyperbole now. As for a DNC playbook, since you seem so knowledgeable on it, care to point a link to it? I'd like to see this "DNC playbook".


Still waiting on your proof Kerry wanted to abolish the CIA.

And, your failure to respond on my remaining points is duly noted.

you say a bunch of rubbish and expect everyone to respond to everything you say? You call the RNC a hate fest and all you do on this board, day in, day out, nearly 24/7...is hate on bush. It's hipocracy at it's greatest level. I'm not afraid to admit I'm conservative, I'm proud of it, why isn't Kerry proud of being a liberal? Oh yeah, because Americans, rightly so, have a negative attitude about them.

As you say....it's all rubbish. And your argument is so much better than anyone elses? Do you know what a true conservative is? Do you think we have a true conservative in the Whitehouse? Kerry is more conservative than Bush....and that should be shaming to the folks in the WH!

PS - I'm still hearing **Crickets** on your polls showing they were wrong in favor of Gore during 2000?

 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: ntdz
Originally posted by: conjur
One word: Wow.


Good job in completely distorting the facts and my viewpoint. No sane person can deny the RNC wasn't a hate-fest. Two more words: Zell Miller. He summed up the general theme of that convention.

And, there's MUCH more than .5% difference between Bush and Kerry. You're just into complete and utter hyperbole now. As for a DNC playbook, since you seem so knowledgeable on it, care to point a link to it? I'd like to see this "DNC playbook".


Still waiting on your proof Kerry wanted to abolish the CIA.

And, your failure to respond on my remaining points is duly noted.

you say a bunch of rubbish and expect everyone to respond to everything you say? You call the RNC a hate fest and all you do on this board, day in, day out, nearly 24/7...is hate on bush. It's hipocracy at it's greatest level. I'm not afraid to admit I'm conservative, I'm proud of it, why isn't Kerry proud of being a liberal? Oh yeah, because Americans, rightly so, have a negative attitude about them.

As you say....it's all rubbish. And your argument is so much better than anyone elses? Do you know what a true conservative is? Do you think we have a true conservative in the Whitehouse? Kerry is more conservative than Bush....and that should be shaming to the folks in the WH!

Kerry is not more Conservative than Bush.😛 You people are hilarious. Just because kerry won't admit that he is liberal(why is he afraid of his ideology?) - doesn't mean you can go around saying he is Conservative. His record speaks for itself and it says he is liberal.

CsG
 
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: ntdz
Originally posted by: conjur
One word: Wow.


Good job in completely distorting the facts and my viewpoint. No sane person can deny the RNC wasn't a hate-fest. Two more words: Zell Miller. He summed up the general theme of that convention.

And, there's MUCH more than .5% difference between Bush and Kerry. You're just into complete and utter hyperbole now. As for a DNC playbook, since you seem so knowledgeable on it, care to point a link to it? I'd like to see this "DNC playbook".


Still waiting on your proof Kerry wanted to abolish the CIA.

And, your failure to respond on my remaining points is duly noted.

you say a bunch of rubbish and expect everyone to respond to everything you say? You call the RNC a hate fest and all you do on this board, day in, day out, nearly 24/7...is hate on bush. It's hipocracy at it's greatest level. I'm not afraid to admit I'm conservative, I'm proud of it, why isn't Kerry proud of being a liberal? Oh yeah, because Americans, rightly so, have a negative attitude about them.

As you say....it's all rubbish. And your argument is so much better than anyone elses? Do you know what a true conservative is? Do you think we have a true conservative in the Whitehouse? Kerry is more conservative than Bush....and that should be shaming to the folks in the WH!

Kerry is not more Conservative than Bush.😛 You people are hilarious. Just because kerry won't admit that he is liberal(why is he afraid of his ideology?) - doesn't mean you can go around saying he is Conservative. His record speaks for itself and it says he is liberal.

CsG

Call it how you see it Cad...I'm calling how I see it. The rest of the country is starting to see it at that too....

 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Call it how you see it Cad...I'm calling how I see it. The rest of the country is starting to see it at that too....

...seeing right through his BS.😉 There are no 2 ways about it- kerry is a liberal. The question is - why doesn't he embrace his ideology?

CsG
 
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