Latest poll puts Hilary Clinton ahead in Texas by an astonishing 16 percent.

[techs]

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/texas.html

Clinton 54 percent
Obama 38 percent
Unsure 9 percent.
Poll taken February 13th.

What is really interesting about this poll is it shows Clintons slide has stopped and she is now gaining on Obama. Texas is the second largest state with a population of almost 23 million.
Winning Texas by only 52 to 48 would easily overcome the whole vote advantage by Obama and if Clinton gets the polls 54 percent she would surge into the lead in delegates nationally.
Texas by itself will overwhelm at least 12 of Obamas victories in far smaller states.
Go Lone Star state!

And the other big state primary in Ohio on the same day? Another Rassmussen Poll also done on February 13th:

Clinton 51 percent
Obama 37 percent
Unsure 12 percent.

So even if Obama wins 75 percent of the Unsure vote Clinton still wins an astounding 54 percent to Obamas 47 percent!!!
And Ohio is the 7th largest state with almost 11.5 million in population.

If these polls hold up, not only will Clinton surge into the lead, it will be a big lead.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: techs
Texas by itself will overwhelm at least 12 of Obamas victories in far smaller states.

:laugh:

You're as delusional as a Hillary troll could possibly be, techs.

If she's lucky (and that's a big IF) she'll get a fairly even split of delegates from Texas. If she's not, Obama will walk away with a majority. I might advise you to check up on the districting and how delegates are awarded in Texas. It is completely different than other states, and heavily favors Obama (as in more delegates awarded in black areas than latino ones).

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: techs
Texas by itself will overwhelm at least 12 of Obamas victories in far smaller states.

:laugh:

You're as delusional as a Hillary troll could possibly be, techs.

If she's lucky (and that's a big IF) she'll get a fairly even split of delegates from Texas. If she's not, Obama will walk away with a majority. I might advise you to check up on the districting and how delegates are awarded in Texas. It is completely different than other states, and heavily favors Obama (as in more delegates awarded in black areas than latino ones).

I can't imagine the convention nominating Obama who lost the popular vote.
The super delegates would be pressured to vote for the candidate who got the most votes.
Not to mention Florida which would mean Obama would have lost the popular vote BIG time.
And if he managed to get a few more delegates than Clinton, it would be clear that if Florida were counted he would have lost.
I can't see the Democrats committing suicide by nominating someone who got fewer votes and only won in delegates because Florida was disenfranchised.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: techs
I can't imagine the convention nominating Obama who lost the popular vote.
The super delegates would be pressured to vote for the candidate who got the most votes.
Not to mention Florida which would mean Obama would have lost the popular vote BIG time.
And if he managed to get a few more delegates than Clinton, it would be clear that if Florida were counted he would have lost.
I can't see the Democrats committing suicide by nominating someone who got fewer votes and only won in delegates because Florida was disenfranchised.

Uh, last I checked, techs, Obama is winning the popular vote as well. And even if you factor in the results of both FL and MI, he still leads the popular vote by around 60,000 votes.

She would need to win Texas by a large margin, with even larger margins in the right districts, to make it a worthwhile victory there for her. If it's even close, she'll gain nothing. It's her last stand.

 

[Bitek]

Florida was a bogus election and everyone knows it. There is no way she can lose a huge number of states, lose elected dels, then try to jerrymander Florida into the nomination against the agreed to rules, effectively allowing FL to fuckup another election and disenfranchise the rest of the country with their electoral incompetence...again.

She is losing the support of the Supers as well. She has to win the outright majority of elected dels (from states who actually managed to run their elections properly) or its game over. Anything less she endangers destroying the party w/ repercussions far beyond Nov.

 

[Nebor]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: techs
Texas by itself will overwhelm at least 12 of Obamas victories in far smaller states.

:laugh:

You're as delusional as a Hillary troll could possibly be, techs.

If she's lucky (and that's a big IF) she'll get a fairly even split of delegates from Texas. If she's not, Obama will walk away with a majority. I might advise you to check up on the districting and how delegates are awarded in Texas. It is completely different than other states, and heavily favors Obama (as in more delegates awarded in black areas than latino ones).

Pabster is right, the districts in Texas are totally fucked. They'll be one block wide and 3 miles long at some point, just to include some projects, or some mansions. Everything is jerrymandered to keep the people in power, in power.

 

[cKGunslinger]

Well, one thing we've all seen this election season is just how accurate polls have been. :laugh:

 

[alchemize]

Here's one that gives her a 7% lead (with 11% undecided):
http://www.southernpoliticalre...storylink_215_220.aspx

Here's one that gives Obama a 6% lead:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/txdem8-702.html

All within the last few days.

It's close in Texas. But Texas is an open state, and I think they independents and republicans will push Obama over the top.