Late Undecideds

[Carmen813]

I keep reading that late undecided voters may break for McCain like they did for Clinton in the primary, but I can't help but feel they are ignoring an important point. During the Democratic primary the policy differences between Clinton and Obama were relatively minor, the differences between Obama and McCain are ginormous. I just don't feel like the primaries will be a good predictor of what happens tomorrow.

Anyone else feel this way?

 

[Genx87]

Hard to say. The thing the strikes me as odd is the % of people who are still saying they are "undecided" at this point in the game. Think I saw a poll last week that still had 11-14% of people claiming they were undecided.

The obvious fear for Democrats here is they arent really undecided but are afraid to tell pollsters they are for McCain out of fear of being considered a racist by the person doing the poll.

Which means McCain is actually doing much better than what is showing. We will only find out tomorrow.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Hard to say. The thing the strikes me as odd is the % of people who are still saying they are "undecided" at this point in the game. Think I saw a poll last week that still had 11-14% of people claiming they were undecided.

The obvious fear for Democrats here is they arent really undecided but are afraid to tell pollsters they are for McCain out of fear of being considered a racist by the person doing the poll.

Which means McCain is actually doing much better than what is showing. We will only find out tomorrow.

Or they are Republicans who just can't bring themselves to votes for old McCain and that lunatic running mate of his.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Genx87
Hard to say. The thing the strikes me as odd is the % of people who are still saying they are "undecided" at this point in the game. Think I saw a poll last week that still had 11-14% of people claiming they were undecided.

The obvious fear for Democrats here is they arent really undecided but are afraid to tell pollsters they are for McCain out of fear of being considered a racist by the person doing the poll.

Which means McCain is actually doing much better than what is showing. We will only find out tomorrow.

Or they are Republicans who just can't bring themselves to votes for old McCain and that lunatic running mate of his.

If so why claim they are still undecided?

 

[Lemon law]

Many of the battle ground state polls have Obama 49%, McCain 44% with undecideds at 7%. Meaning McCain might pull it out, but still, McCain has to get ALL the undecided.
In some other states, independent candidates will get 3 to5% of the vote, with likely Nader voters hurting Obama, but the libertarian voter is more likely to hurt McCain.

As a partisan democrat, I have to like the Obama chances. But in 24 hours or so, I will be going to vote, and in less than 40 hours we should have the results of the only poll that matters.

Barring a mega external event, there is little either campaign can do now to change the outcome, as Obama will spent his time in three battleground States while McCain will barnstorm seven States.

 

[Moonbeam]

I keep thinking that nobody wants to vote for a loser and so the losers keep saying they are going to win.

 

[umbrella39]

I don't know how anyone could still be undecided this late in the game after so many GD months of this much publicized presidential race. Those who wait until they are in the booth before deciding who to vote for -- should just stay home. If you still don't have an opinion by the time November 4th rolls around, you're not paying attention hard enough.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Genx87
Hard to say. The thing the strikes me as odd is the % of people who are still saying they are "undecided" at this point in the game. Think I saw a poll last week that still had 11-14% of people claiming they were undecided.

The obvious fear for Democrats here is they arent really undecided but are afraid to tell pollsters they are for McCain out of fear of being considered a racist by the person doing the poll.

Which means McCain is actually doing much better than what is showing. We will only find out tomorrow.

Or they are Republicans who just can't bring themselves to votes for old McCain and that lunatic running mate of his.

If so why claim they are still undecided?

Good question, but the answer is the same one it is every election...there are some people who just can't make up their mind (or pretend that's the case). This is not an unusual number of undecideds, as far as I know, so if they are McCain supporters afraid of the race card, what was their excuse the last several elections?

 

[Moonbeam]

Seems like the tide is coming in or is Moonie just pulling our leg.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Genx87
Hard to say. The thing the strikes me as odd is the % of people who are still saying they are "undecided" at this point in the game. Think I saw a poll last week that still had 11-14% of people claiming they were undecided.

The obvious fear for Democrats here is they arent really undecided but are afraid to tell pollsters they are for McCain out of fear of being considered a racist by the person doing the poll.

Which means McCain is actually doing much better than what is showing. We will only find out tomorrow.

Or they are Republicans who just can't bring themselves to votes for old McCain and that lunatic running mate of his.

If so why claim they are still undecided?

Good question, but the answer is the same one it is every election...there are some people who just can't make up their mind (or pretend that's the case). This is not an unusual number of undecideds, as far as I know, so if they are McCain supporters afraid of the race card, what was their excuse the last several elections?

No idea, do you have a history of polls for undecideds 1-2 days before the election? I never really followed it to know if having high single digits or some polls whowing double digit undecided late in the game is normal. I seem to remember 04 being pretty much about the standard error range of 1-3% at the end.

/shrug

 

[CLite]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Or they are Republicans who just can't bring themselves to votes for old McCain and that lunatic running mate of his.

Exactly. My father has always been republican, he heads a privately owned engineering consulting firm whose revenue is growing like 70% a year it's around 20'ish million now employs 100 or so people.

This is the first time in a long time he is going to vote democrat, he just made up his mind a day or two ago and sent in his absentee ballot since he will be traveling. The whole joe the plumber, bullshit about small town america, Palen's questionable discussions, and the debates sealed the deal for him.

However, semi-related note: The estate tax is so fucked for privately owned businesses, if my father was to pass away his business would be fucked and have to scale massively down however we'd still owe 10's of million in taxes and would certaintly have to file for complete bankruptcy and disperse the company. Luckily we are working on a way to avoid it with a trust, so if the trust work around didn't exist he would have voted Republican.

 

[SP33Demon]

Nate from 538 said that the most that undecided's will swing the polls are 1% or less. He said that 1% is with extremely generous weighting for McCain, which probably won't happen.

It's a non-issue.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: Genx87
Hard to say. The thing the strikes me as odd is the % of people who are still saying they are "undecided" at this point in the game. Think I saw a poll last week that still had 11-14% of people claiming they were undecided.

The obvious fear for Democrats here is they arent really undecided but are afraid to tell pollsters they are for McCain out of fear of being considered a racist by the person doing the poll.

Which means McCain is actually doing much better than what is showing. We will only find out tomorrow.

Or they are Republicans who just can't bring themselves to votes for old McCain and that lunatic running mate of his.

If so why claim they are still undecided?

Because they might not want to vote for Obama out of fear of internally combustioning after they caste a vote for a Dem

As you said, we have to wait till tommorow :beer:

 

[chess9]

Undecided breakdown:

Out of every 10 undecided voters this late:

4 will not vote
1 will vote for some idiot like Barr, or possibly Nader
3 will vote for Obama
2 will vote for McCain

Obama is going to win by a very substantial amount in the electoral college and will take the popular vote by at least 5%.

Notice McCain's Intrade numbers are closing in on 1.

I hear the fat lady singing.

-Robert

 

[Moonbeam]

I think I smell salt and iodine and an increase in barometric pressure.

 

[First]

Obama is polling above 50%, so theoretically he'll still win even if 100% of undecideds go for McCain (which obviously won't happen).

 

[GodlessAstronomer]

Keep in mind that many "undecided" voters are actually 3rd party voters on the polls where that is not an option.

 

[BoomerD]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Hard to say. The thing the strikes me as odd is the % of people who are still saying they are "undecided" at this point in the game. Think I saw a poll last week that still had 11-14% of people claiming they were undecided.

The obvious fear for Democrats here is they arent really undecided but are afraid to tell pollsters they are for McCain out of fear of being considered a racist by the person doing the poll.

Which means McCain is actually doing much better than what is showing. We will only find out tomorrow.

As I've posted here before, this is known as the "Tom Bradley Effect."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...0/AR2008011003274.html