last day in vegas, black or red?

[Printer Bandit]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA

 

[Macamus Prime]

Holy shit Macamus, lose the ego. You dead wrong, people called you out on it. The end. No sense in defending an indefensible position.

 

[Macamus Prime]

And out of the 10 times my girlfriend has played roulette, one of them she won $400 on a 00. Clearly we should always play 00!!

I don't remember stating it as a fact. I even countered a similar point.

Are you this uptight and iron fist-like with her as well?

 

[Macamus Prime]

Only problem with your post is the spreading of misinformation.

While you may play however you like, you stating a "50/50" chance at getting your money back from your play style is factually wrong.

Other than that, variance has been a good friend to you thus far.

The 50/50 is indeed wrong. Yes, there is a 00 and 0. Yes, it has landed and it will land.

Probability does indeed state you will lose all your money if you try to follow any sort of method really. Even when the odds are "in your favor".

But, here is the steel toed boot kick to the nuts; it's gambling. It is suppose to be fun. It's in a city where there are tons of hot women, tons of parties and a chance to win money.

Also, I did not demand anyone follow this method.

Plus, no one has even tried this approach - and I am talking about just having fun. No one is to rely on gambling to build up retirement money or make enough money to buy a home or be able to feed their children.

The whole point is to enjoy it.

Clearly, life has puked on some of you something fierce to leave you so disenchanted to any concept of enjoyment.

Enjoy your misery gents - I hope it lasts forever, since you are the ones inviting it into your lives.

 

[OverVolt]

Doesn't roulette have the worst odds ever?

I really hate roulette. The betting in roulette also sucks.

 

[darkxshade]

Doesn't roulette have the worst odds ever?

Slots have the worst odds, that and the lottery.

 

[OverVolt]

The lottery is the mathematically challenged tax, so no disagreements there

 

[shortylickens]

Doesn't roulette have the worst odds ever?

I really hate roulette. The betting in roulette also sucks.

If you run the stats on them you see all gambling is designed to get money from you over the long run. You cannot win.
But roulette is especially bad because of that freakin 0 and double 0. They seriously screw up your chances of making any money.

 

[Schfifty Five]

The 50/50 is indeed wrong. Yes, there is a 00 and 0. Yes, it has landed and it will land.

Probability does indeed state you will lose all your money if you try to follow any sort of method really. Even when the odds are "in your favor".

But, here is the steel toed boot kick to the nuts; it's gambling. It is suppose to be fun. It's in a city where there are tons of hot women, tons of parties and a chance to win money.

Also, I did not demand anyone follow this method.

Plus, no one has even tried this approach - and I am talking about just having fun. No one is to rely on gambling to build up retirement money or make enough money to buy a home or be able to feed their children.

The whole point is to enjoy it.

Clearly, life has puked on some of you something fierce to leave you so disenchanted to any concept of enjoyment.

Enjoy your misery gents - I hope it lasts forever, since you are the ones inviting it into your lives.

It is fun. I like gambling. I understand that there is math part and a fun part. I try to factor in both when playing.

I just wanted to point out that the only issue I had with your post was the incorrect claim of 50/50. But other than that, I had no beef w/ your post. Everyone has their own play style. Some tend to side with the math side, others to the fun side. Both are fine.

 

[alkemyst]

Actually in classes like Queueing Theory and advanced probability classes you can indeed learn how to play that you mostly win. Casinos have to post their payouts and the rules/elements of each game like how many decks of cards you are facing.

With a sufficient bank roll and keeping emotion out of play, I know of two 'math' guys that have personally been asked to not come back to certain casinos.

It's a slow process that ends up breaking down when one's emotion thinks they can now go big on a bet to quicken the pace or decide to go beyond their 'goal'.

 

[bhanson]

Actually in classes like Queueing Theory and advanced probability classes you can indeed learn how to play that you mostly win. Casinos have to post their payouts and the rules/elements of each game like how many decks of cards you are facing.

With a sufficient bank roll and keeping emotion out of play, I know of two 'math' guys that have personally been asked to not come back to certain casinos.

It's a slow process that ends up breaking down when one's emotion thinks they can now go big on a bet to quicken the pace or decide to go beyond their 'goal'.

What games are you talking about? Blackjack?

 

[alkemyst]

What games are you talking about? Blackjack?

It can be any game, blackjack and cards are usually a safer bet, but even machine games have physical odds that manifest themselves.

This is why lotteries change their balls. Certain balls are more likely to be picked even though they try hard to make them equal.

It's advanced math and most will just cry bullshit here. Even how phone calls and cpu's work with queueing most wouldn't believe just hearing it discussed...they'd think most traffic would be rejected.

A typical example of this kind of math is the 'Birthday question'. How many people do you have to randomly ask for their birthday before one has the same Month/Day as your's.

Most think about 1/2 of 365 days. It's closer to 20 people, I think 22 was the average; but I didn't look it up. Now of course, if you are a guy that happened to be born on February 29th you may never find a match in localized testing

 

[bhanson]

It can be any game, blackjack and cards are usually a safer bet, but even machine games have physical odds that manifest themselves.

This is why lotteries change their balls. Certain balls are more likely to be picked even though they try hard to make them equal.

It's advanced math and most will just cry bullshit here. Even how phone calls and cpu's work with queueing most wouldn't believe just hearing it discussed...they'd think most traffic would be rejected.

A typical example of this kind of math is the 'Birthday question'. How many people do you have to randomly ask for their birthday before one has the same Month/Day as your's.

Most think about 1/2 of 365 days. It's closer to 20 people, I think 22 was the average; but I didn't look it up. Now of course, if you are a guy that happened to be born on February 29th you may never find a match in localized testing

That question has no answer. It could be 1 or 9000 or more.

I think you mean how many people do you need in a room for there to be a 50% chance that two of them share the same birthday.

 

[the DRIZZLE]

A typical example of this kind of math is the 'Birthday question'. How many people do you have to randomly ask for their birthday before one has the same Month/Day as your's.

Most think about 1/2 of 365 days. It's closer to 20 people, I think 22 was the average; but I didn't look it up. Now of course, if you are a guy that happened to be born on February 29th you may never find a match in localized testing

Man you butchered that. That is not the birthday question at all. The birthday question is about the probability of ANY TWO PEOPLE IN A ROOM OF N PEOPLE having the same birthday. For a room of 22 people the odds are around 50% which is probably what you are referring to.

The answer to the question that bhanson asked is 253 if my math is right. (but I haven't done this in a while)

 

[shortylickens]

What games are you talking about? Blackjack?

Blackjack is the only one where strategy will guarantee a win, and only under certain circumstances. If they reshuffle the deck constantly you can forget about counting cards.
And I dont think he paid close attention in that advanced probability course, cuz he'd remember that you have to play literally millions of spins on roulette before you can come up with any kind of patterns that can be used to help ensure a win. Not every table is exactly the same, so eventually you can find the patterns, but right around the time you start winning they replace the fucking wheel.
Or ask you to leave.

Yup, you heard right folks. In most of the big main strip casinos in Vegas, you will be forcibly ejected should they determine you won too much. So you see, you really CANT beat them.

 

[alkemyst]

That question has no answer. It could be 1 or 9000 or more.

I think you mean how many people do you need in a room for there to be a 50% chance that two of them share the same birthday.

No

 

[alkemyst]

Man you butchered that. That is not the birthday question at all. The birthday question is about the probability of ANY TWO PEOPLE IN A ROOM OF N PEOPLE having the same birthday. For a room of 22 people the odds are around 50% which is probably what you are referring to.

The answer to the question that bhanson asked is 253 if my math is right. (but I haven't done this in a while)

Yes I did state the problem incorrectly. My memory was off, thanks for googling though to clear it up.

it was an example that people don't understand odds and chances. Not trying to do the proof.

 

[Schfifty Five]

Man you butchered that. That is not the birthday question at all. The birthday question is about the probability of ANY TWO PEOPLE IN A ROOM OF N PEOPLE having the same birthday. For a room of 22 people the odds are around 50% which is probably what you are referring to.

The answer to the question that bhanson asked is 253 if my math is right. (but I haven't done this in a while)

Seems like you and Bhanson both asked the same question?

 

[the DRIZZLE]

Seems like you and Bhanson both asked the same question?

Ooops, you're right. I read it as "how many people would you have to ask before there is a 50% chance that one of them would share your birthday".

 

[bhanson]

No

How is that no?

 

[shortylickens]

Isnt that 1-(1/365 x 1/364) or something?

 

[AyashiKaibutsu]

Blackjack is the only one where strategy will guarantee a win, and only under certain circumstances. If they reshuffle the deck constantly you can forget about counting cards.
And I dont think he paid close attention in that advanced probability course, cuz he'd remember that you have to play literally millions of spins on roulette before you can come up with any kind of patterns that can be used to help ensure a win. Not every table is exactly the same, so eventually you can find the patterns, but right around the time you start winning they replace the fucking wheel.
Or ask you to leave.

Yup, you heard right folks. In most of the big main strip casinos in Vegas, you will be forcibly ejected should they determine you won too much. So you see, you really CANT beat them.

Blackjack will never guarantee a win. You can get an edge by counting cards (assuming they don't reshuffle frequently, don't use multiple decks, or have reduced payout for blackjack)(pretty much all casinos will have one implemented). Even if they didn't implement those counting would just give you a positive expected value that over the long run would let you win. It doesn't guarantee it except in the very long run (there's still the chance you could go broke before getting there).

 

[shortylickens]

Blackjack will never guarantee a win. You can get an edge by counting cards (assuming they don't reshuffle frequently, don't use multiple decks, or have reduced payout for blackjack)(pretty much all casinos will have one implemented). Even if they didn't implement those counting would just give you a positive expected value that over the long run would let you win. It doesn't guarantee it except in the very long run (there's still the chance you could go broke before getting there).

As long as you know what you are doing, blackjack is 50/50. By itself that means over the long run you will break even.
BUT, if the house pays out a little extra when you actually get blackjack and not just 21, it means you make money over the long run.
Unfortunately we're talking thousands of hands and nobody except little old ladies has that kind of time. And they play the slots anyway.

 

[alkemyst]

As long as you know what you are doing, blackjack is 50/50. By itself that means over the long run you will break even.
BUT, if the house pays out a little extra when you actually get blackjack and not just 21, it means you make money over the long run.
Unfortunately we're talking thousands of hands and nobody except little old ladies has that kind of time. And they play the slots anyway.

no