The point of my post isn't about comparing AMD vs. NV leaps relative to each other that you wanted to make out of my post. I realize that I used 780 as a comparison not 780Ti because I wanted to use 3 years as a point of reference. Obviously the move from 480 to 780TI is an even greater increase in performance but it doesn't make the comparison as valid since now you are stretching to 3.5 years from the time 480 came out. You can use NV or AMD or mix and match upgrades and pick almost any time in the last 3-4 years and use a 3-year timeframe and you'll end u with a performance increase anywhere from 2-3X vs. where we project 880 to land, which makes it a lot less impressive.
@Russian Sensation
What's your best guess as to what comes out by 2016?
- Maxwell comes out Q4 this year
- Perhaps a big Maxwell later in 2015?
- Any word on what AMD is doing? HBM is the only thing I have heard.
Let's use the GTX Titan as a point of reference, so early 2013. How much faster are we looking at compared to a Titan? Assume a 550mm^2 big die. So what are we expecting by early 2016?
Its a myth that 20nm cant do highpower. The real reason is transistor cost. And 16FF will only cost more. Unlike previous, there is no cheaper transistors for anyone sofar but Intel when going below 28nm.
I did not say "can't do". I said it was only 10% faster at 20nm than 28nm. That and Moore's Law has essentially reversed as your slides show. Somewhere between 20 and 28nm is rock bottom for price per transistor - perhaps at 28nm as the Samsung slide implies. STMicro claims that FD SOI could give it more life at 20nm. I'm skeptical though.
As I said earlier, after that they're going to have to pull on some insane stuff beyond 14nm, like quadruple patterning or something along those lines, especially because EUV does not look like it's happening any time soon.
Equally important, the gains for die shrinks seem to be smaller on high power processes than low power ones.
Intel calculate transistor/cost way different than the others. You have no idea how much Intel's 14nm process cost today.
Judging by the delays and other issues, my guess is they are having serious problems with heat, leakage, and probably die yields.
Do you know how much Intel's 14nm is costing? Your post implies you have some information that we don't.
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