State split on Bush, Kerry
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Bush has thin edge, poll hints
Jon Kamman
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 20, 2004 12:00 AM
Arizona voters, narrowly split between candidates, see President Bush as more capable of handling war and combating terrorism but Sen. John Kerry as the better choice for dealing with most domestic issues.
The contrast of strengths emerged graphically in an Arizona Republic statewide poll of 600 likely voters.
Asked whom they would choose if the election were held now, respondents gave Bush a 44-41 percent edge over Kerry, a gap within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Eleven percent of respondents were undecided.
State leaders of both parties agreed that the closeness of the poll portends a mighty fight.
"Arizona is going to see a presidential campaign like we have never seen before," state Democratic Chairman Jim Pederson said.
His Republican counterpart, Bob Fannin, said, "The national and state campaigns (for Bush) are not taking anything for granted."
Bush outscored Kerry by at least 15 percentage points as the better leader on war, homeland security and anti-terrorism.
But by an average of 13 points, respondents expressed greater confidence in Kerry on managing environmental, health care and energy matters.
The candidates virtually tied in voter confidence on who should handle their top concerns, the economy and jobs. Results on education, taxation and balancing the budget also were statistically even.By a 7-point margin, Bush was seen as better for handling immigration issues.
Parties' perspectives
Pederson said Bush's slim lead proves that support for the president is eroding even among Republicans, who outnumber Democrats by 14 percent in Arizona's total voter registration. In 2000, Bush won the state by 6 percentage points over Al Gore.Fannin said he sees little evidence of slippage in GOP voters' support of Bush, but if it exists, it's because the president is working through challenges that give all voters doubts.
Fannin identified them as "inheriting a recession, the aftermath of 9/11, and the war on terror." He said support will build as conditions improve in Iraq and the economy continues a turnaround described as the fastest in 20 years.
Outside evaluations
Two nonpartisan pollsters, invited to review results, expressed surprise that Bush scored so well in defense and war categories, considering widespread criticism that his administration led the nation into war on the basis of faulty intelligence, was ill-prepared for the aftermath, has been unable to stop Iraqi insurgency and allowed abuse of prisoners of war.
Bruce Merrill, who oversees numerous polls as a professor in the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University, said, "I'm surprised Kerry doesn't do better than he has" in the war and terrorism categories.
"A lot of stuff (in the war) has gone wrong, but Kerry has not been able to convince people that Bush is not a good choice," Merrill said.
Merrill's most recent poll of Arizonans, conducted a month ago, showed Bush ahead of Kerry, 43-38 percent, with a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points.
Except for the war-related areas, the latest poll's results differed little from nationwide polls conducted by Zogby International, company President John Zogby said.
Among other highlights of the Republic poll were a split, 48-48 percent, on whether the United States should have gone to war in Iraq, and a more than 2-1 rejection of pulling troops out now.
Independents leaning
Results of several questions gave mixed signals about where members of both parties stand but indicated a trend toward Kerry among non-party registrants.
Independents, a rapidly growing force in Arizona, favored Kerry by 45-28 percent over Bush.
Also, nearly half (49 percent) said they hold a lower opinion of Bush now than when he took office, a proportion not far below Democrats' 56 percent. And well under half (41 percent) of independents rated the president's overall job performance as good to excellent.
Although Republicans overwhelmingly (90 percent) gave the president a positive rating in overall job performance, 19 percent said their opinion of Bush had declined since he took office, and 12 percent said they would vote for Kerry.
Democrats also sent seemingly contradictory messages. All of the GOP votes for Kerry, and more, would be offset by what the poll turned up as a 14 percent Democratic vote for Bush. Also, one in eight Democrats (12 percent) had higher regard for him now than four years ago, and three in eight (37 percent) gave him a good-to-excellent overall rating.
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Bush has thin edge, poll hints
Jon Kamman
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 20, 2004 12:00 AM
Arizona voters, narrowly split between candidates, see President Bush as more capable of handling war and combating terrorism but Sen. John Kerry as the better choice for dealing with most domestic issues.
The contrast of strengths emerged graphically in an Arizona Republic statewide poll of 600 likely voters.
Asked whom they would choose if the election were held now, respondents gave Bush a 44-41 percent edge over Kerry, a gap within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Eleven percent of respondents were undecided.
State leaders of both parties agreed that the closeness of the poll portends a mighty fight.
"Arizona is going to see a presidential campaign like we have never seen before," state Democratic Chairman Jim Pederson said.
His Republican counterpart, Bob Fannin, said, "The national and state campaigns (for Bush) are not taking anything for granted."
Bush outscored Kerry by at least 15 percentage points as the better leader on war, homeland security and anti-terrorism.
But by an average of 13 points, respondents expressed greater confidence in Kerry on managing environmental, health care and energy matters.
The candidates virtually tied in voter confidence on who should handle their top concerns, the economy and jobs. Results on education, taxation and balancing the budget also were statistically even.By a 7-point margin, Bush was seen as better for handling immigration issues.
Parties' perspectives
Pederson said Bush's slim lead proves that support for the president is eroding even among Republicans, who outnumber Democrats by 14 percent in Arizona's total voter registration. In 2000, Bush won the state by 6 percentage points over Al Gore.Fannin said he sees little evidence of slippage in GOP voters' support of Bush, but if it exists, it's because the president is working through challenges that give all voters doubts.
Fannin identified them as "inheriting a recession, the aftermath of 9/11, and the war on terror." He said support will build as conditions improve in Iraq and the economy continues a turnaround described as the fastest in 20 years.
Outside evaluations
Two nonpartisan pollsters, invited to review results, expressed surprise that Bush scored so well in defense and war categories, considering widespread criticism that his administration led the nation into war on the basis of faulty intelligence, was ill-prepared for the aftermath, has been unable to stop Iraqi insurgency and allowed abuse of prisoners of war.
Bruce Merrill, who oversees numerous polls as a professor in the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University, said, "I'm surprised Kerry doesn't do better than he has" in the war and terrorism categories.
"A lot of stuff (in the war) has gone wrong, but Kerry has not been able to convince people that Bush is not a good choice," Merrill said.
Merrill's most recent poll of Arizonans, conducted a month ago, showed Bush ahead of Kerry, 43-38 percent, with a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points.
Except for the war-related areas, the latest poll's results differed little from nationwide polls conducted by Zogby International, company President John Zogby said.
Among other highlights of the Republic poll were a split, 48-48 percent, on whether the United States should have gone to war in Iraq, and a more than 2-1 rejection of pulling troops out now.
Independents leaning
Results of several questions gave mixed signals about where members of both parties stand but indicated a trend toward Kerry among non-party registrants.
Independents, a rapidly growing force in Arizona, favored Kerry by 45-28 percent over Bush.
Also, nearly half (49 percent) said they hold a lower opinion of Bush now than when he took office, a proportion not far below Democrats' 56 percent. And well under half (41 percent) of independents rated the president's overall job performance as good to excellent.
Although Republicans overwhelmingly (90 percent) gave the president a positive rating in overall job performance, 19 percent said their opinion of Bush had declined since he took office, and 12 percent said they would vote for Kerry.
Democrats also sent seemingly contradictory messages. All of the GOP votes for Kerry, and more, would be offset by what the poll turned up as a 14 percent Democratic vote for Bush. Also, one in eight Democrats (12 percent) had higher regard for him now than four years ago, and three in eight (37 percent) gave him a good-to-excellent overall rating.
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