Joe isn't going anywhere. McCain is going to beat that horse until it's dead, bloody, and unidentifiable.
OrByte
Diamond Member
- Jul 21, 2000
- 9,303
- 144
- 106
about 20 days to go and Obama is going to outspend McCain in all of the "battleground" states.
I don't like that Rove is basically right here about McCain's chances...but I have to believe that Obama's decision to forego public financing is going to pay off these last days before the election.
I remember people riding his ass for flip floping on public financing...but now it sure does look like he made the right decision.
I don't like that Rove is basically right here about McCain's chances...but I have to believe that Obama's decision to forego public financing is going to pay off these last days before the election.
I remember people riding his ass for flip floping on public financing...but now it sure does look like he made the right decision.
He'll most likely get another slight bump as he always does after debates.
Then he'll push his numbers up again with his prime time Comedy Special.
And the Gallup Traditional Model is BS. I'd stick with their registered voter numbers. Zogby is GARBAGE as has been stated several times. Ras has a 1-2 point republican house effect. The true lead is probably 6 to 8 points.
Let's also remember that Obama purchased 30 min of national prime time on the night of Oct. 29th. No one knows for certain what it will be about. I look forward to it.
http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/10/obama-primetime.html
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
Presuming the DOW isn't up to 12k or more and gas is selling at $1.50 I'd say that if he can promise people things like extended unemployment benefits and a superior healthcare package to what they have now, the lower classes, who are hardest hit in any recession, would be simply stupid not to support it because they are the ones who run the real risk of being out of work, out of money, no healthcare.Originally posted by: Xavier434
Let's also remember that Obama purchased 30 min of national prime time on the night of Oct. 29th. No one knows for certain what it will be about. I look forward to it.
http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/10/obama-primetime.html
Vic
Elite Member
- Jun 12, 2001
- 50,422
- 14,337
- 136
What was Obama supposed to do? Snub all the donors who were sending him campaign money? Maybe McCain should have found more donors himself, or taken better advantage of the rules he wrote himself, so he wouldn't have to be on the election dole, eh?
I'm not sure how effective that Rove plan is because then Obama would also be able to shift resources out of PA and flood the other states more than he already has.
Except he never signed a pledge to take public financing. That's all McCain spin. What he signed was an agreement to sit down with mccain and come to some sort of agreement. McCain (being the smart politician he is) jumped right into the public financing because he knew he couldn't keep up with Obama's massive grassroots fundraising and then tried to strongarm Obama into public financing. Obama (also being a smart politician) realized that if he did that he would be eaten alive by 527s and McCain would sit back and go "what? I have nothing to do with 527s".
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Obama wasn't going ot let another democrat be had by 527 swiftboating.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Obama wasn't going ot let another democrat be had by 527 swiftboating.
OrByte
Diamond Member
- Jul 21, 2000
- 9,303
- 144
- 106
What he should have done was stick to his promise.
It might have cost him the election, but at least he stuck to his promise right? :roll:
At the time I remember I didn't like hearing him changing his mind on the public financing deal. But I do distinctly remember thinking to myself if he WINS then it would have been the right decision, and I want my President making the right decisions even though he/she may take some personal flak for making the tough (albeit right) decisions.
imho I think that is what it boils down to.
Keep his word? Not make promises he can't keep? Hold himself to the same standards he'd hold McCain?
This isn't the point. I'm not talking about McCain's financial problems. He's driven his own campaign into the ground. I'm talking about Obama breaking one of the few promises he's made in the public eye since the race started.
Honestly though, I didn't mean for this to evolve into a deep discussion on the matter - it's centuries ago as far as I'm concerned.
:thumbsup:
Putting aside the various spins on this story which is a big debate on its own, this is what everyone should want from their president regardless of who is elected.
Vic
Elite Member
- Jun 12, 2001
- 50,422
- 14,337
- 136
Since I think the Presidential election campaign fund should be gotten rid of, I have no problems with Obama's decision. A political candidate who can't raise money obviously doesn't have the publics' support IMO.
Plus, as noted by another poster above, this "promise" is little more than spin.
DrPizza
Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Absolutely brilliant. You are a political genius. Spend 3 days in each state, spend the rest of his campaign money in those states, and sit back and watch his numbers rise while Obama spends the next 3 weeks at Disneyland or something.
Seriously, to think that Obama and his staff are going to sit back and watch that happen is wishful thinking. The Republicans would be smartest to take their money & use it to help Republican Senators who are up for re-election.
- Aug 23, 2003
- 25,375
- 142
- 116
FiveThirtyEight's latest projections show that all the current "battleground" states are ones Obama doesn't need to win the election. States like NC, MO, NV, OH, and FL. He currently has 286 EV outside the "battleground" zone.
AstroManLuca
Lifer
- Jun 24, 2004
- 15,628
- 5
- 81
Yeah, it looks like Virginia might make the election for Obama. It's now solidly enough in the Obama column that 538 no longer considers it a battleground. But McCain needs VA in order to win. Technically he could still win if he trades Virginia for Pennsylvania while winning all the other battlegrounds, but PA is just as unlikely to go to McCain.
Fern
Elite Member
- Sep 30, 2003
- 26,907
- 174
- 106
I have real doubts that either Karl Rove's or Dick Morris's ideas would work.
They have competing philosophies:
Rove is all about turning out the base. I think McCain has damaged himself with them by the way he's handled the economic issue (bail-out bankers etc - yeah I know he then flip-floped, that's not much help either), among other things.
Morris is all about getting independants. Here again, I think McCain has damaged himself there. He's gone negative in an ineffective way - the only negatives that have risen are his own. I don't know that Palin will help with them either; I think that's doubtful, she seems there more for the base.
Both seem to think that painting Obama as a tax increaser (I just made that word up ) is the ticket for a McCain victory. But I think first he'll have to pursuade people, at least on some subconscience level, that Obama is a liar. Obama promises to cut 95% of peoples' taxes. If Obama is to be trusted, what room does that leave McCain? (I'll cut 96% of everyones' taxes?).
I'm thinking McCain has been badly out maneuvered here. I don't think McCain will get much traction attacking the elements of Obama's tax plan, like the refundable credit for college tuition etc.
Maybe he could point to Bill Clinton's "Millionaire" tax bracket that actually kicked in at about $250K, and claim Obama is really gonna do something similar. I.e., raise taxes for people making only $62,500 (instead of $250K). But again, he's stuck with the problem of convincing people that Obama is lying about his plan.
Pimp his economic recocery plan? Nope, he's blown that.
The WOT? Bah, Iraq is winding down and off the radar screen.
UHC? Sheesh, McCain came out with plan that makes currently tax-free employer provided benefits taxable? What a stroke of marketing genius! [/sarcasm]. Whatever the benefits might be, it's hard to get past that whole "make it taxable" thingy. That whole non-taxable aspect has been enshrined in the tax code for so long I can't see poeple getting comoftable with it. And I'd bet his replacement - a tax credit - will have a sunset provision. Theoretically, you could lose both (you give up the non-taxability and then credit expires)
Drilling? Oil is dropping like a rock right (price per B has dropped more than 50%), and gas is now under $3 in most places and falling fast. Looks like that issue evaporated.
There is a chance, seems like too many people only actually commit once in the voting booth. But I'm not optimistic. I can't think of a *positive* thing McCain can do to sway those voters, and McCain just doesn't have it in him to run an effective negative campign.
Looks to me like he needs an outside/unforseen event to change things up. More likely though we'll just see wicked 527 stuff when the state parties panic.
Fern
They have competing philosophies:
Rove is all about turning out the base. I think McCain has damaged himself with them by the way he's handled the economic issue (bail-out bankers etc - yeah I know he then flip-floped, that's not much help either), among other things.
Morris is all about getting independants. Here again, I think McCain has damaged himself there. He's gone negative in an ineffective way - the only negatives that have risen are his own. I don't know that Palin will help with them either; I think that's doubtful, she seems there more for the base.
Both seem to think that painting Obama as a tax increaser (I just made that word up
) is the ticket for a McCain victory. But I think first he'll have to pursuade people, at least on some subconscience level, that Obama is a liar. Obama promises to cut 95% of peoples' taxes. If Obama is to be trusted, what room does that leave McCain? (I'll cut 96% of everyones' taxes?).I'm thinking McCain has been badly out maneuvered here. I don't think McCain will get much traction attacking the elements of Obama's tax plan, like the refundable credit for college tuition etc.
Maybe he could point to Bill Clinton's "Millionaire" tax bracket that actually kicked in at about $250K, and claim Obama is really gonna do something similar. I.e., raise taxes for people making only $62,500 (instead of $250K). But again, he's stuck with the problem of convincing people that Obama is lying about his plan.
Pimp his economic recocery plan? Nope, he's blown that.
The WOT? Bah, Iraq is winding down and off the radar screen.
UHC? Sheesh, McCain came out with plan that makes currently tax-free employer provided benefits taxable? What a stroke of marketing genius! [/sarcasm]. Whatever the benefits might be, it's hard to get past that whole "make it taxable" thingy. That whole non-taxable aspect has been enshrined in the tax code for so long I can't see poeple getting comoftable with it. And I'd bet his replacement - a tax credit - will have a sunset provision. Theoretically, you could lose both (you give up the non-taxability and then credit expires)
Drilling? Oil is dropping like a rock right (price per B has dropped more than 50%), and gas is now under $3 in most places and falling fast. Looks like that issue evaporated.
There is a chance, seems like too many people only actually commit once in the voting booth. But I'm not optimistic. I can't think of a *positive* thing McCain can do to sway those voters, and McCain just doesn't have it in him to run an effective negative campign.
Looks to me like he needs an outside/unforseen event to change things up. More likely though we'll just see wicked 527 stuff when the state parties panic.
Fern
- Sep 26, 2000
- 28,559
- 4
- 0
At this point I wonder if this isn't a three fold strategy.
The first is, of course, to try and win the Presidency.
The second is to try to turn out the base in the red states to prevent a Democratic Senate majority.
The third is to so fire up the base they are 100 percent behind the filibusters the Republicans will start next year.
The first is, of course, to try and win the Presidency.
The second is to try to turn out the base in the red states to prevent a Democratic Senate majority.
The third is to so fire up the base they are 100 percent behind the filibusters the Republicans will start next year.
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