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Karl Rove on how McCain can win.

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,561
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122411909182439021.html

His campaign understands the dire circumstances it faces and is narrowing his travels almost exclusively to Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. If he carries those states, while losing only Iowa and New Mexico from the GOP's 2004 total, Mr. McCain will carry 274 Electoral College votes and the White House. It's threading the needle, but it's come to that.



Look at the big three. Can anyone say Florida, Virginia and Ohio are not close? Ohio has issues with voter registration and Ohio polls have mostly been within the margin of erro. Virginia is the state where Wilder had an 8 point lead going into the election and won by only one half a percent. Florida is the one state where we did have a successful plan to keep Democrats from voting in 2004, and can you say Florida's a lock for Obama? No.

So if McCain sweeps those three states he just has to win Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. Two toss up states, and one that Obama doesn't have much of lead in and might be susceptible to McCains native Arizona spillover.

Basically, if the three biggies, Florida and Virginia and Ohio go to McCain, he could actually win it.
 

TheSlamma

Diamond Member
Sep 6, 2005
7,625
4
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Well with the media saying it's in the bag for Obama that isn't helping either... it gets those college kids saying: "meh I don't have to vote now it's already a win here" oops

If Boulder doesn't vote Colorado will go Red
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
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I really think FL is going Blue this election. I live here and I can tell you that I have seen a progressive increase of Obama support across all of south florida over the past 6 months. Keep in mind that south florida is full of crazy old cubans that scream communism any chance they get. Yet, despite that, it is still chalked full of Obama support. It's quite a shocking surprise and a good one at that.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
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He can still win, but it is one hell of an uphill battle.

BTW look at the polls and you see they are still rather close.
Rasmussen at 4, Zogby at 5, Gallup traditional +3, IBD/TIPP (which was the closest in 2004) +3.

I would say overall Obama is at +4 or 5. Well within striking distance.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
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Originally posted by: Xavier434
I really think FL is going Blue this election. I live here and I can tell you that I have seen a progressive increase of Obama support across all of south florida over the past 6 months. Keep in mind that south florida is full of crazy old cubans that scream communism any chance they get. Yet, despite that, it is still chalked full of Obama support. It's quite a shocking surprise and a good one at that.
South Florida is the strength of the Democrat party in Florida.
Florida 2004 map

 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,061
494
126
It will take a miracle, but I agree. It is still within the realm of possibility now. This is going to be tight to the end.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
141
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FiveThirtyEight has Obama up +7.3 and RCP has Obama up +8.6 in VA.

I wouldn't worry about Democrats getting too lazy with their lead; Obama and his surrogates are telling supporters everyday not to get too comfortable with their lead to vote.

I think voter turnout will set a new modern day record this year, to Obama's benefit.

In the end, Bush will not only be remembered as one of the worst Presidents in our country's history, but also the man who dismembered the GOP's power in Washington.
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,511
140
106
I think this is Obama's to lose. I find it doubtful McCain can really do much now to gain ground. It will have to be a mistake on Obama's part to change the dynamics. I also think the undecided will break to Obama so even in close states were the MOE is not exceeded, Obama will carry those states too.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: Xavier434
I really think FL is going Blue this election. I live here and I can tell you that I have seen a progressive increase of Obama support across all of south florida over the past 6 months. Keep in mind that south florida is full of crazy old cubans that scream communism any chance they get. Yet, despite that, it is still chalked full of Obama support. It's quite a shocking surprise and a good one at that.
South Florida is the strength of the Democrat party in Florida.
Florida 2004 map
Yes, but this is very different. What I am trying to portray here is that a lot of the traditional die hard repubs in this area are switching sides. I have other family amongst various locations in FL as well and I have spoken to them about this stuff. My father is an example of someone who is undecided and from what I can gather I think he slightly leans towards McCain. He is telling me about how the west coast of FL is going blue as well. It is not a trend limited to S. Florida.
 

DaveSimmons

Elite Member
Aug 12, 2001
40,730
670
126
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: Xavier434
I really think FL is going Blue this election. I live here and I can tell you that I have seen a progressive increase of Obama support across all of south florida over the past 6 months. Keep in mind that south florida is full of crazy old cubans that scream communism any chance they get. Yet, despite that, it is still chalked full of Obama support. It's quite a shocking surprise and a good one at that.
South Florida is the strength of the Democrat party in Florida.
Florida 2004 map
Not that Florida dems have had much luck in following simple directions to vote properly.

If McCain takes Florida, odds are 50-50 it's because of voter incompetence, again.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
5
0
Dick Morris on how McCain can win.

Hammer Obama with the tax and spend label. Turn Joe the Plumber into an ad.
Use Obama's words against him.
The short term impact of the third debate will be to help Barack Obama. But the long term implications may give John McCain a needed boost. Obama looked good, but McCain opened the tax-and-spend issue in a way that might prevail.

Obama took the worst that McCain could hand out and came out looking good. McCain was the more aggressive debater, but Obama looked like the better president. The constants of the debate remained. Obama is smoother, prettier, younger and more presidential. But McCain had a feisty appeal, a Trumanesque approach that may resonate in these times of anger and unrest.

Obama seemed to rise above the charges and show his reasonableness and his ability to inspire confidence. McCain was like a trial lawyer, hammering out his points, but Obama came across with dignity.

Finally, John McCain came out swinging. In his feisty, aggressive style, he scored key points on spending and taxes. Coherent in a way that he has not been in previous debates, McCain repeatedly turned Obama's spending plans against the Democratic candidate. The continued invocation of Joe the Plumber brought a populist edge to the tax issue that it has lacked since Ronald Reagan.

Strategically, every debate is a chance to ratify the issues that will dominate the weeks that follow. McCain and Obama both made taxes and spending the key issues of the future. With Obama opposing a spending freeze and billing it as a hatchet as opposed to a scalpel, McCain was able to push the Democrat into an uncomfortable position.

McCain has now established the tax issue in a way he has not been able to do so far in the contest. Now he can widen the gap between the campaigns on this key issue. If the Republicans concentrate their campaign on the key issue of taxes and abandon the other lines of attack, they can use the lines developed in this debate to do better and better as Election Day nears.

There was no knockout in this debate. Obama emerged with class and charisma from a slugfest. He seemed to be the kind of man we want as president. But McCain was able to set up the tax issue in a way that could eventually close the gap.

Remember 1992. Clinton had a big lead over George Bush Sr. with three weeks to go. But then Bush and Quayle hammered him over the tax issue and his big spending plans. Day after day, the Republicans gained, and Clinton fell back. By the Thursday before the Tuesday election, Bush had gained the lead. Ultimately Clinton was saved at the bell by the announcement by Special Prosecutor Lawrence Walsh that he was going to indict Bush's Defense Secretary Cap Weinberger. That restored the Clinton lead and delivered the victory to him.

McCain is not as good on television as Obama is. So the immediate impact of the debate was to help Obama.

But the tax-and-spend issue is the one that Republicans want at the center of the race, and McCain put it there.

So this may turn out to have been a turning point for McCain, after all.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
141
116
Somebody wake me up if McCain closes the race to under a +5 average advantage for Obama in the national trackers.

Right now Obama is up +6.9 to +7.7 depending on who you ask. FiveThirtyEight's model expects that to tighten to +6 for Obama by election day given the current trends.
 

ayabe

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2005
7,449
0
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Well Dick Morris also says it's absolutely fair to compare Obama to OBL, so yeah anyways.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,929
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Nice post, but no way in hell McCain will win Colorado now. Wishful thinking by Rove.
 

SirStev0

Lifer
Nov 13, 2003
10,449
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How isn't PA being considered? I agree Ohio def has the possibility of going red. PA a little less so because of very strong Demo in philly, but after spending a year working in Pittsburgh, I have to say race will def play in PA. Pittsburgh is incredibly racists. Coming from bumblefuck PA, I know Pennsyltucky will go redish even though Obama will probably help that area out the most. Without both Philly and Pittsburgh, there is a chance he might drop PA.
 

AstroManLuca

Lifer
Jun 24, 2004
15,628
5
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Rove is completely right. McCain needs to stop pouring his limited money into states where he has no chance, like Pennsylvania. None of the states mentioned are guaranteed wins for Obama. Some are leaning strongly toward Obama, but they're still up for grabs and you have to remember that polls aren't always right.

McCain should (and probably already did) take a cue from FiveThirtyEight's statistician and focused on the most likely scenario in which he wins.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
141
116
Originally posted by: SirStev0
How isn't PA being considered?
Because Gore and Kerry carried PA, and Obama has between an +11.8 to +13.6 lead there right now.

It certainly didn't help McCain that Obama just had Bill, Hillary and Joe spend a couple days stumping exclusively all over that state to harden the numbers in their favor.

Look at what the candidate is doing to see what they think about their chances.

McCain just took ads in WI off the air to re-allocate resources. He's given up on MI and WI, and he's shifting ad buys to Bush states that he's trailing Obama in. Obama, on the other hand, feels good enough about certain Bush states that he's thinking of buying ads deep in Bush territory to spread McCain even thinner; places like Georgia and Kentucky.

McCain's campaign admitted today that even with RNC funding included, they will be BADLY outspent by Obama in ad buys.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
2
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I read the Rove comments and he makes some valid points, but he seems to fail to realize that Obama will change tactics almost as fast as McCain changes his. And the longer and deeper the economic problem's are,
the larger the Obama lead will become. Some things are just too big to be spun, McCain needs to catch a break from an external event, because he can't reinvent himself.
 

jonks

Lifer
Feb 7, 2005
13,918
18
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Of course anything is possible, but if you accept the places Obama is up by about 10pts as going blue, then Obama would have to only win one of the following to get 270, and Obama is currently ahead (or behind) as listed:

MO +4
IN -4
OH +3
VA +7
NC (even)
FL +4
NV +2 & CO +5

That's a LOT of paths to 270. And if he were to only get CO and lose NV, then you have the 269-269. In which case Obama also wins.

If there is an EV tie, the election is kicked to the House, Obama or McCain would have to control a majority of the 50 state delegations to win the White House. The newly elected and re-elected House members would vote in this scenario.

Currently, the Democrats hold a 26-21 lead among state delegations in the House, with three states split down the middle: Arizona, Kansas and Mississippi.

The Democrats are expected to pick up even more House seats in November, which suggests Obama would coast to victory.

 

Stuxnet

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2005
8,403
1
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I don't see Florida going to McCain.

11 threads on the front page, techs. Not bad!
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
2
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Technically he's not yet lost, but it's certainly a safe prediction. There are too many "ifs" and maybes and what not for him to stand a good betting chance on it.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
2
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As for Joe the plumber, Obama gave a well thought out answer and ole Joe is buying a plumbing business at a very poor time. To some extent, it depends on Joe's business model, is he mainly commercial depending on new building, or residential, depending on existing plumbing to break down and need repair? But either way, in a coming certain recession, new home building is almost certain to slow to a crawl, and homeowners will be slower to call on expensive plumbers when they have plumbing problems. If ole Joe is such a dumb MF that he can't understand, that a tax plan that puts more money in middle class hands is the only way he will
be able to grow his business, then let him vote for McCain and see his American dream evaporate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10...olitics/16plumber.html
 

Fingolfin269

Lifer
Feb 28, 2003
17,948
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I just wish everyone would stop saying 'Joe the plumber'. I thought I heard the end of it last night until I heard a sound bite from Biden this morning saying 'Joe the plumber'. I had to turn off the radio and breathe...

This is the election for the US Presidency and we're throwing around phrases like 'Joe the plumber'. Please stop already!
 

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