Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

[Brainonska511]

My baseline expectation is the intentional near collapse of all legal immigration during his term.

The legal immigration system has been a shit show for over a decade now, largely because Congress (really, Republicans) don't want to take any common sense reforms. I even had one former coworker with a PhD just give up on getting a green card from an H1B and return home because of the fucking mess that it is. We have all these smart people who want to come here, learn, and invest their lives and money, and we tell them to piss up a rope, so they go home and do it in their own countries instead (ie, 5G technology).

 

[gothuevos]

edit: nm

 

[K1052]

The legal immigration system has been a shit show for over a decade now, largely because Congress (really, Republicans) don't want to take any common sense reforms. I even had one former coworker with a PhD just give up on getting a green card from an H1B and return home because of the fucking mess that it is. We have all these smart people who want to come here, learn, and invest their lives and money, and we tell them to piss up a rope, so they go home and do it in their own countries instead (ie, 5G technology).

Yeah this is one area that needs to get revisited every so often but just doesn't because the politics are so toxic.

 

[repoman0]

I hope he does it. Deport every single one. I want to see thousands of busses rolling around this country rounding people up. I hope Trump enacts every single policy he said he would. People voted for this, Fuck 'em.

Yep. I’m finding it pretty easy to go into FYGM mode with how broad a coalition of people voted for him. He’ll be great for me personally, judging by my brokerage accounts so far, and in MA we’ll be insulated from most of the federal BS. So, fuck it. Give the people what they want, although I think large majorities of them are in for a surprise.

 

[JD50]

Yep. I’m finding it pretty easy to go into FYGM mode with how broad a coalition of people voted for him. He’ll be great for me personally, judging by my brokerage accounts so far, and in MA we’ll be insulated from most of the federal BS. So, fuck it. Give the people what they want, although I think large majorities of them are in for a surprise.

Yep, I'm in Maryland so me and my family (LGTBQ kid) are pretty much safe. I'm solidly upper middle class so those tax cuts should put more money in my pocket. As a bonus I live on the Eastern Shore in MAGA country so I'll get to see those a-holes suffer first hand.

 

[repoman0]

Yep, I'm in Maryland so me and my family (LGTBQ kid) are pretty much safe. I'm solidly upper middle class so those tax cuts should put more money in my pocket. As a bonus I live on the Eastern Shore in MAGA country so I'll get to see those a-holes suffer first hand.

Large coalitions of people who apparently can’t afford anything voting for a permissive corporate price gouging environment and putting lots of money into the hands of wealthy equity owning blue state residents … *chef’s kiss*

 

[DZero]

Democrats in the House and Senate need to let this man do what he said he will do. Obviously don't vote for any of this nonsense, but don't block it either. We tried holding him back, and this is what we get. 14 million Democrats stayed home because they have their own stupid little pet issues that Kamala wasn't perfect on, fuck them too.

They were democrats on the first place? or they are just like mercenaries?

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

lmao people are saying this kind of story is fake while CEOs are telling the news this is EXACTLY what they are doing

https://twitter.com/x/status/1854550692267991357

I love it. I'm imagining the dumbfounded expression from Senator Keely in the birdcage from the 'THIS is a MAN' scene near the end.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Yep. I’m finding it pretty easy to go into FYGM mode with how broad a coalition of people voted for him. He’ll be great for me personally, judging by my brokerage accounts so far, and in MA we’ll be insulated from most of the federal BS. So, fuck it. Give the people what they want, although I think large majorities of them are in for a surprise.

- Californian checking in. Voted Harris but would likely benefit a lot more from a Trump presidency. My body is ready (being male with a vasectomy), my 401K/funds/securities are ready, my outrageously expensive house is ready.

America wanted this and I'm not just gonna kick rocks and pout like a sucker.

Let's make some money!

 

[Fanatical Meat]

- Californian checking in. Voted Harris but would likely benefit a lot more from a Trump presidency. My body is ready (being male with a vasectomy), my 401K/funds/securities are ready, my outrageously expensive house is ready.

America wanted this and I'm not just gonna kick rocks and pout like a sucker.

Let's make some money!

Similar, not as financially stable as you but home is fine and we should own it soon. Outside of pregnancy range, I plan on mostly sitting this one out because as of now it appears the majority wanted this.

 

[biostud]

So with what you know now, would you have preferred Trump to stay in office?

 

[ondma]

I just went and looked at the results.. looks like Jacky Rosen's gonna pull this one out.. so the dems lost 3 senate seats in red states (WV, MT, OH) and 1 in a swing state (PA).

I'm not seeing a massive rejection of dems across the board outside of red states and PA. It's just for whatever reason.. they like Trump!

And they like Trump a hell of a lot more than a black woman!

I don't think the Dems can lean into DEI so much going forward.. they need to actually talk 6th grade level solutions to people.

I actually don't think Republicans can talk 6th grade level solutions either.. but Trump could!

Not you personally, but I dont think it is productive to keep denigrating the electorate and blaming the media because people support Trump. Yes, it is inconceivable to me that a rational person could vote for such a flawed human being as Trump, no matter what his policies. However, the Dems can't blame this loss on the inequities of the electoral college. Trump won the popular vote too, by almost 5M votes. You can call it a "red wave" or not, but losing control of the Senate, failing to gain control of the House, and losing decisively the presidency seems to me that it should lead to some serious soul searching by the Dems about what they emphasize in their message, instead of, as Kamala promised, to simply "keep fighting". The Dems long ago lost touch with the rural vote and middle class working Americans. Picking a "good ole boy" like Tim Walz as VP was certainly not going to bring this back. In this election, we see support even eroding in several of the subgroups that have traditionally supported Democrats. I have to admit that I dont really have the answer, but the extreme emphasis on DEI and identity politics seem to me to have been soundly rejected in this election. I dont really know how the Dems can win back this support, I admit. Perhaps a simply straightforward approach would have been best. Simply say inflation was too high because of the covid aftermath, admit that people are hurting, but emphasize inflation is now down, and propose something like an across the board middle class tax cut that will benefit everyone, not just certain subgroups. And continually attacking Trump, while certainly accurate and justified, obviously was not productive. Anyone who has not lived under a rock for the past 8 years knows what Trump is. That is a big part of his appeal to his hardcore base, and the rest who voted for him were willing to overlook his flaws because they were not convinced the Dems offered a valid alternative.

 

[Brainonska511]

However, the Dems can't blame this loss on the inequities of the electoral college. Trump won the popular vote too, by almost 5M votes.

The popular vote is still being tabulated. How can you say this with any sort of certainty?

 

[DarthKyrie]

Not you personally, but I dont think it is productive to keep denigrating the electorate and blaming the media because people support Trump. Yes, it is inconceivable to me that a rational person could vote for such a flawed human being as Trump, no matter what his policies. However, the Dems can't blame this loss on the inequities of the electoral college. Trump won the popular vote too, by almost 5M votes. You can call it a "red wave" or not, but losing control of the Senate, failing to gain control of the House, and losing decisively the presidency seems to me that it should lead to some serious soul searching by the Dems about what they emphasize in their message, instead of, as Kamala promised, to simply "keep fighting". The Dems long ago lost touch with the rural vote and middle class working Americans. Picking a "good ole boy" like Tim Walz as VP was certainly not going to bring this back. In this election, we see support even eroding in several of the subgroups that have traditionally supported Democrats. I have to admit that I dont really have the answer, but the extreme emphasis on DEI and identity politics seem to me to have been soundly rejected in this election. I dont really know how the Dems can win back this support, I admit. Perhaps a simply straightforward approach would have been best. Simply say inflation was too high because of the covid aftermath, admit that people are hurting, but emphasize inflation is now down, and propose something like an across the board middle class tax cut that will benefit everyone, not just certain subgroups. And continually attacking Trump, while certainly accurate and justified, obviously was not productive. Anyone who has not lived under a rock for the past 8 years knows what Trump is. That is a big part of his appeal to his hardcore base, and the rest who voted for him were willing to overlook his flaws because they were not convinced the Dems offered a valid alternative.

Here's the rub of it all, the electorate at large is in favor of the Democrats' policies, but they hate being talked to like they have a brain in their head and want really simple language used so they don't have to think. These same people get mad at you when you point out that fact.

 

[Indus]

Here's the rub of it all, the electorate at large is in favor of the Democrats' policies, but they hate being talked to like they have a brain in their head and want really simple language used so they don't have to think. These same people get mad at you when you point out that fact.

Ding ding ding..

Other than PA which swung too much and kicked out Case your point is right on the money.

BTW this is an interesting listen from a left show talking to an indy trump fan over why Trump won and why the left has lost its way so much that Trump seemed better.. (these are not hardcore MAGA dumdums.. these are approachable)

 

[Fanatical Meat]

The popular vote is still being tabulated. How can you say this with any sort of certainty?

At this point it’s nearly certain he has won the popular vote. We can quibble about how much but as of now it’s nearly a certainty.
Democrats message is off and I really hope they drop issues that voters aren’t interested in and focus on issues voters want.

 

[DarthKyrie]

Ding ding ding..

Other than PA which swung too much and kicked out Case your point is right on the money.

BTW this is an interesting listen from a left show talking to an indy trump fan over why Trump won and why the left has lost its way so much that Trump seemed better.. (these are not hardcore MAGA dumdums.. these are approachable)

I know I am right because I have been dealing with it all my life. I don't have many friends because the average person is so stupid, and I hate talking to people as if they are dumber than a box of rocks.

 

[ondma]

So with what you know now, would you have preferred Trump to stay in office?

Well, at least we would be done with him now, assuming he actually left office after his second term!! We could have blamed HIM and the Reps for post Covid inflation, the border and international crises. And at least he would have served under a divided Congress. Now he has both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court immunity ruling to bolster his power.

I dont know what he will actually pass but I am retired, and my wife has health issues, so I am very concerned about what he will do regarding Social Security, Medicare, and my CSRS pension. It would be great for me if he eliminated tax on SS, but overall it is a bad plan that would seriously weaken it for future beneficiaries.

Edit: Here is something really scary. If NV and AZ go to Trump, as they are leaning, that gives Trump 30 states, nearly enough to ratify a constitutional amendment to eliminate the 2 term limit. Edit 2: Actually it takes 3/4 of the state conventions to ratify an amendment. I thought it was 2/3. So that actually means 38 states. Not likely to happen I guess, although who knows what else Trump would do to stay in power.

 

[Brainonska511]

At this point it’s nearly certain he has won the popular vote. We can quibble about how much but as of now it’s nearly a certainty.
Democrats message is off and I really hope they drop issues that voters aren’t interested in and focus on issues voters want.

Yes, it's almost certainly true Democrats lost the popular vote. However, we shouldn't start ascribing things without understanding how big that loss really was.

 

[gothuevos]

Not you personally, but I dont think it is productive to keep denigrating the electorate and blaming the media because people support Trump.

Can we stop with this? Trump has denigrated half of the population for 8 years and he gets a pass. Trump voters get VERY sensitive when you simply point out their affinity for illiberalism, or at least the fact that they are happy to look away. But it is an absolutely fair criticism, or should be. I'm not even calling it a racist or sexist thing. Simply that too many US voters are absolutely ok with authoritarianism. Now maybe that's not what politicians running for office should say, but it is absolutely fact.

As far as "DEI and woke," what exactly was in Harris' platform that supported this? Or are you saying it was just baggage from 2020? This is an overplayed angle IMO. I think the transgender prisoner ads definitely hurt Harris, but weren't they pre-existing laws under Trump? Her campaign seemingly never countered this.

As far as rural and working class - what else should Dems do to support them? A lot of what Dems ultimately would like to pass is instantly shot down as socialism, anyway. So how do you reach these people? Man are they going to be in for a surprise when Elon crashes the dollar and tries to push our economy to all-crypto.

Maybe the next Dem candidate should just do what Obama did - pick a single economic pet project (healthcare in his case), and just hammer that point to death. Ignore everything else. Don't even engage in culture wars.

But I think it is sad/interesting/damning that apparently (?) it's now politically taboo to point out that too many US voters are ok with illiberalism, because apparently this now pushes them to vote for more of it? Huh?????? @Jaskalas was right, humans are just dumb.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Yes, it's almost certainly true Democrats lost the popular vote. However, we shouldn't start ascribing things without understanding how big that loss really was.

the info is in, the economy and immigration. Those were the two big issues on voters minds.

 

[ondma]

Can we stop with this? Trump has denigrated half of the population for 8 years and he gets a pass. Trump voters get VERY sensitive when you simply point out their affinity for illiberalism, or at least the fact that they are happy to look away. But it is an absolutely fair criticism, or should be. I'm not even calling it a racist or sexist thing. Simply that too many US voters are absolutely ok with authoritarianism. Now maybe that's not what politicians running for office should say, but it is absolutely fact.

As far as "DEI and woke," what exactly was in Harris' platform that supported this? Or are you saying it was just baggage from 2020? This is an overplayed angle IMO. I think the transgender prisoner ads definitely hurt Harris, but weren't they pre-existing laws under Trump? Her campaign seemingly never countered this.

As far as rural and working class - what else should Dems do to support them? A lot of what Dems ultimately would like to pass is instantly shot down as socialism, anyway. So how do you reach these people? Man are they going to be in for a surprise when Elon crashes the dollar and tries to push our economy to all-crypto.

Maybe the next Dem candidate should just do what Obama did - pick a single economic pet project (healthcare in his case), and just hammer that point to death. Ignore everything else. Don't even engage in culture wars.

But I think it is sad/interesting/damning that apparently (?) it's now politically taboo to point out that too many US voters are ok with illiberalism, because apparently this now pushes them to vote for more of it? Huh?????? @Jaskalas was right, humans are just dumb.

So just because Trump does it, it is OK for the Dems to do it? That was not my point though, as that particular comment was in reference to a few posters on this forum who are very derogatory of anybody who supports Trump, or even like myself, who will never support Trump but who do not necessarily buy into the entire Dem agenda, or at least disagree with the emphasis on certain points. Even if it were true (which I dont agree with) it serves no purpose, and simply serves to reinforce the animosity and distrust already sowed by Trump.

You can argue that the Dems have a perfect platform, and are doing everything right, but just look at the last election and see if you can seriously argue that.

I did say in that post what perhaps Kamala could have done differently. I am not going to restate it. Kamala had two very serious problems to overcome, and I dont think she addressed either of them effectively. First, is that she ran as a very "progressive" candidate in the 2020 primaries. When she tried to take more moderate positions now, it made her seem like she was flip flopping just to gain votes. (Yea I know Vance was the king of flip/floppers) Secondly she was obviously tied to the actual or perceived failures of the Biden presidency, i.e. inflation, the border, international unrest, and perceived high levels of crime. I think she could have distanced herself more from Biden without totally throwing him under the bus. Hell, the Reps were even using her own quote from The View against her. Perhaps, like Kevin O'Leary, the shark tank guy said (he is kind of a jerk, but I agree on this) she could have admitted they perhaps made mistakes, but saying she learned from them, and will now do x,y,z differently. Anyway, I still stick to my point that the Dems need to shift their message to remain (or become again) politically relevant. The final data that cemented that to me was the huge shift to Trump from "independents".

 

[manly]

Yes, it's almost certainly true Democrats lost the popular vote. However, we shouldn't start ascribing things without understanding how big that loss really was.

We can already say a lot based on exit polls. 2024 is a disaster compared to 2020. A talking head on CNN noted that the only subgroup Harris improved in are college-educated white women. There might have been a second group, but I've forgotten. She held serve with ages 65+ (perhaps many seniors know Repugs are coming after their entitlements).
But you're right the final margin won't be 5M. We know a Trump 2.0 was always a distinct possibility (perhaps even probable) but I don't recall anybody predicting Trump wins the national PV.

I'm not gonna be overly harsh on Harris because she played the hand she's dealt, and Muricans simply decided no thanks on a Black woman as POTUS. It's sad as fuck, but we knew this was a problem from the jump.

There's other stuff I can't begin to explain like Sherrod Brown going from +6 this summer to -4 to a MAGAt. Jacky Rosen was +10 in final polling averages, and will win by about 2%. This suggests Biden/Harris ultimately dragged down ballot Dems down with them, but that's hard to say without better evidence.

There was definitely a lot of irrational exuberance around here in late Sept after the debate, while some of us knew the race was destined to be competitive. We knew a lot of the electorate is dumb, but worse they don't even know it. In the end, it kinda was competitive (margins are tight), but it wasn't (0/7 in the battlegrounds is sad).

One thing is absolutely certain: we need to drastically change to win back the Latino vote. We'll be fucked for a long time if we don't fix that because Latinos are a prime driver of population growth. We saw a preview of this shift in south Florida in 2020 and didn't know what to make of it. It's now obviously a four alarm fire.

Oh and so much for Prof. Allan Lichtman. He straight up pulled a gothuevos on us. Also, big misses from J Ann Selzer and Ralston.

 

[Muse]

The two things I think Trump actually believes in are racism and that tariffs are good. So yea, I kinda expect follow through in these areas no matter what people are telling themselves.

If he follows through on those in a big way his popularity will plummet. We know that. He won't like that. The one easier to not follow through on is the deportations, at least at the scale he said he'd do it.

 

[Muse]

LMAO that you think Trump was merely employing rhetoric in a campaign or that he isn't interested in exercising the broad executive powers that SCROTUS has granted him.

Not to say it's a done deal, perhaps somebody like an Ivanka Trump (I know, she quit long ago) would moderate his impulses and federal courts will have a say. It depends on who he listens to for economic advice. If it's fuckers like Larry Kudlow, then all bets are off on rational policy.

I didn't say it was just rhetoric, but actual implementation of mass deportations isn't gonna happen with a wave of his hand. He hasn't been good at doing things he said he was going to do in his first term. Now, a depleted version of who he was then, how good is he going to be at following through? His ACA replacement never got beyond a "concept." His wall paid by Mexico or whoever was a cornerstone at best. His infrastructure nonexistent. He did next to nothing. Did a bit of globe trotting shaking hands with dictators. Played golf. Visited his resorts. You anticipate he's going to get a bunch of things done he said he will do? All of it? HAHAHA