Bush Approval Hits a Low Point in State
His handling of Iraq gets poor marks. California would back Kerry, even with Nader in the race.
By Michael Finnegan, Times Staff Writer
President Bush's popularity in California has dropped to the lowest level of his presidency amid rising public concern over his handling of Iraq and the economy, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll that found dislike of Bush driving support for his Democratic rival.
At a time of mounting American casualties in Iraq, the survey found a sharp turnaround in attitudes toward Bush's management of the war: 56% of California voters disapprove, up from 44% in July.
Most say the war is worth neither the lost lives of U.S. troops nor the cost to taxpayers. A solid majority of California voters believe Bush has no clear plan for Iraq. Two-thirds are concerned it will become another Vietnam.
The surge in public dissatisfaction with the Republican president on Iraq is among the starkest findings of a survey that illustrates the difficulties that Bush faces in trying to win California in the contest with Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry in November.
The poll affirmed the state's continuing tilt toward Democrats at a time when the country as a whole is almost evenly split between the two major parties.
Capturing the breach between California and Bush was poll respondent Roger Sack of Palo Alto, a Democrat who described himself as "uniformly negative" on the president.
"He represents a cultural kind of strain that I don't like ? call it Texas, call it born-again, call it Southern ? while at the same time, coming out of a country-club Republican background, and I think he's incompetent on top of all of that," Sack, a 62-year-old computer marketer, said in a follow-up interview.
Overall, the survey found, 54% of California voters disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job, while 44% approve.
On the economy, 53% disapprove of Bush's performance and 42% approve.
Bush's best showing came on his handling of terrorism ? there, voters were split, but as in the other categories, his approval ratings slumped from past polls.
If the election were held today, the poll found, California voters would choose Kerry over Bush, 53% to 41%, in a two-way race.
With independent Ralph Nader on the ballot, Kerry would still defeat Bush in a romp, 49% to 39%, with Nader at 6%.
Either way, just 6% of voters are undecided ? remarkably few for an election still more than six months away.
Despite Kerry's wide lead, the poll reflects a key challenge ahead for the Massachusetts senator, one he has tried to meet with television advertising in more closely divided states: to define himself clearly for voters. Fewer than a third of Kerry's California supporters say they will vote for him because they like him and his policies; 65% say they back him primarily because of their opposition to Bush.
Among them is Los Angeles lawyer Chad Levy, 27, a Democrat who called Kerry "one of those unobjectionable candidates."
"He seems all right, but I wouldn't say he's exactly inspired me or anything like that," Levy said. "I don't see anything wrong with him." Or in the words of Sack: "He's a little deficient in the charisma department."
By contrast, the president's support base, while smaller, is more solid. More than three out of four Bush supporters say they will vote for him mainly because they like him and his policies; just 17% because of opposition to Kerry.
Bush has climbed slightly in national polls, but The Times' poll shows that Iraq poses growing problems here in California. Just 41% of voters approve of the way he has handled the situation, down from 51% in July.
The poll found that public sentiment on Iraq was intense, mainly against the war: 47% strongly disapprove of what Bush has done there while 24% strongly approve.
"The thing I lose sleep over right now is these young men being killed," said Democrat Culvert William, 66, a retired San Diego high-school counselor who backs Kerry.
Bush's handling of Iraq draws dismal scores from Democrats and liberals (more than 80% of each disapprove), but Republicans and conservatives remain solidly behind him on the issue (roughly three out of four approve).
"He's doing the right thing," said Bush supporter Rita Fortney, 63, a Republican homemaker who lives in Sonoma County. "Nobody likes to go to war, but if that's what you've got to do to protect the United States, then that's what you've got to do."
Retired engineer Allen Sanderfer, 83, a Carpinteria Republican, wondered why the U.S. was at war in Iraq when many of the Sept. 11, 2001, hijackers were Saudi Arabian. "I can't understand for the life of me why, when A attacks you, you go after B or C," he said.
Nearly two-thirds of moderates disapprove of the president's handling of Iraq, along with 60% of independents. Both are key voting blocs in California, particularly for Republicans seeking to overcome Democrats' advantage in voter registration.
Half of the state's voters say they are very concerned that Iraq will become another Vietnam in which the United States does not accomplish its goals despite years of military involvement. An additional 17% are somewhat concerned, while about a third are not concerned.
"Didn't we learn anything from that horrible travesty?" asked Democrat Mary Bradshaw, 55, a Palm Springs mental-health therapist.
Roughly three out of five California voters see the Iraq war as not worth the military lives lost or the money spent. The strongest opposition comes from African Americans, statistically the most loyal Democrats; 86% of them see it as not worth the lives lost, and 80% say it is not worth the cost to taxpayers.
If Bush's news conference on Iraq last week was meant to buttress his position, it did the opposite among California voters, the poll found. Nearly two-thirds caught Bush's presentation, but 59% of them say he did not clearly explain his reasons for going to war. Also, 38% say the president's remarks made them view him less favorably, 14% say more favorably, and just under half say it made no difference.
Despite Bush's Iraq troubles, the survey was not uniformly bleak for the president on national security issues, which his campaign views as a prime asset for November. On the subject of terrorism, 55% say Bush's policies have made the country safer, while 22% say they have made it less safe. Overall, voters were split on Bush's record of handling terrorism: 49% approve, 48% disapprove.
"He's doing a good job of keeping us protected," Fortney said. "I think he's doing all he can. I really do."
Still, many California voters find credible the allegations by former White House counter- terrorism chief Richard A. Clarke that Bush neglected terrorism before the Sept. 11 attacks.
Asked about those charges and national security advisor Condoleezza Rice's assertion that Bush did all he could to thwart terrorism before the attacks, 47% of California voters say they believe Clarke more than Rice, while 42% back Rice.
Complicating Bush's efforts in California is the state's lagging economy. With voters calling it the state's most important problem, Bush's ratings have dropped substantially since July. Then, 50% approved of the job he was doing on the economy and 46% disapproved. Now it is nearly the reverse ? 42% approve and 53% disapprove.
As for Bush's tax cuts, 36% say they helped the nation's economy, but 28% believe they hurt it and 31% see them as making no difference.
In the two-way match-up with Kerry, Bush wins strong support from Republicans (80%), conservatives (74%) and whites who attend religious services at least once a week (60%). Despite Bush's appeals to Latino voters, just 36% of them favor Bush over Kerry. That is close to the 38% support he garnered among Latinos in 2000.
Kerry's base is broader. He is heavily favored by Democrats (82%), liberals (86%), blacks (75%), Latinos (58%), union members (67%), voters between the ages of 18 and 29 (58%) and whites who never attend religious services (58%).
Nader, the former consumer advocate whom many Democrats still blame for Al Gore's defeat in 2000, runs strongest among young voters, winning 16% of those between 18 and 29. He also captures at least 10% of liberals, independents, Latinos and unemployed men.
Geographically, the poll reflects the political fault between coastal and inland California. Kerry runs well ahead of Bush in counties along the coast (56% to 36%), but Bush has a narrow edge (49% to 46%) in the less populous inland counties, primarily the Central Valley and the Inland Empire.
In a state dominated by Democrats, the poll also found distinct trouble spots for Bush beyond the built-in disadvantage that any Republican faces in California. Most striking: 32% of moderate Republicans favor Kerry over Bush. And independent voters, now more than 16% of the state's electorate, also prefer Kerry over Bush, 50% to 42%.
Some Republicans have suggested that the election of Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor could help Bush defy expectations and win California. But nine out of 10 voters say the Republican governor's endorsement makes no difference to them in the presidential race.
The survey, supervised by Times polling director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,265 registered California voters between April 17 and 21. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)
Asked of registered California voters
Cost of war
Do you think the outcome of the war in Iraq has been ...
... worth the cost in U.S. military lives?
Yes: 30%
No: 62%
... worth the financial cost to the U.S.?
Yes: 36%
No: 58%
Source: Times Poll
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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)
California outlook
Q: If the November election were being held today, for whom would you vote:
... if George W. Bush and John F. Kerry were running: All voters Democrats Independents Republicans
Bush 41% 11% 42% 80%
Kerry 53 82 50 15
Someone else 0 1 1 0
Don't know 6 6 7 5
... if George W. Bush, John F. Kerry and Ralph Nader were running: All voters Democrats Independents Republicans
Bush 39% 9% 40% 78%
Kerry 49 80 44 14
Nader 6 4 10 3
Don't know 6 7 6 5
Q: Are you planning to vote for your presidential candidate mostly because you like him and his policies or mostly because you are voting against his opponent?
All Voters
Like candidate: 52%
Voting against opponent: 44%
Don't know: 4%
Voting for Bush
Like candidate: 78%
Voting against opponent: 17%
Don't know: 5%
Voting for Kerry
Like candidate: 32%
Voting against opponent: 65%
Don't know: 3%
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling: Approve Dispprove
Overall job 44% 54%
Situation in Iraq 41% 56%
War on terrorism 49% 48%
Economy 42% 53%
Q: Over the past three years, George W. Bush's policies on terrorism and national security have made the country: All voters Democrats Independents Republicans
More secure 55% 35% 59% 83%
Less secure 22 37 18 5
No difference 21 26 21 11
Don't know 2 2 2 1
Q: Do you think President Bush and his advisors have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq? All voters Democrats Independents Republicans
Clear plan 34% 19% 23% 58%
Not a clear plan 61 78 70 34
Don't know 5 3 7 8
How the Poll Was Conducted
The Los Angeles Times Poll contacted 1,571 California residents, including 1,265 registered voters, by telephone April 17 through 21, 2004. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers were contacted. The sample of all California adults was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and party registration figures from the secretary of state's office. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.
Note: Some columns may not add up to 100% where `don't knows' are not shown. All results shown are among registered voters.
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Associate polling director Jill Darling Richardson and data-management supervisor Claudia Vaughan contributed to this report
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