John Dvorak: AMD misses the emerging subpar market

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
64
91
There is a new trend in computing, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. is not on its bandwagon. I call the trend subpar computing.

The AMD-Intel battle isn't what it used to be; people actually cared about their processors during a time when processors' performance could be quantified. But those days are over.
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I have no idea how long it will take AMD to once again play catch-up in an emerging market. It's as if nobody at the company is doing strategic analysis.

How this can happen after its slow start in the booming notebook market? Mobile computing is just about all the entire industry has been talking about for the last 15 years! Is AMD deaf?

http://www.marketwatch.com/new...9612%2D34DE48884993%7D

Kind of a scathing op-piece on AMD. How many of you remember Dvorak from the Computer Shopper days?
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
64
91
I had never seen that before but holy crap that is the funniest thing I've seen in more than a month! :laugh:

I can't say I was ever a fan of the Dvorak, but every good investor knows it doesn't matter whether the analysis is correct or flawed but rather how many people will read it and act on it.

To me he's giving AMD some tough love, I disagree with the tactic but I kind of appreciate that at least he cares enough to try. IMO Dvorak has never really been value-add to the industry, he's one of those guys whose entire credibility in the industry hinges on timely criticism of the obviously underperforming so as to continually sell himself as a technical analyst that must be looked up to when he speaks.

The counter-argument to Dvorak's rant against AMD being prepared for this subpar market segment is that AMD bought ATi in part to gain an upper-hand (at some point) in this segment with the lower-end of their envisioned Fusion product line.
 

Drsignguy

Platinum Member
Mar 24, 2002
2,264
0
76
Originally posted by: soonerproud
Does anyone actually ever take Dvorak seriously any more?


He does bring interesting topics to his table and is very opinionated. Not to say that is a bad thing.

 

taltamir

Lifer
Mar 21, 2004
13,576
6
76
Originally posted by: Idontcare
I had never seen that before but holy crap that is the funniest thing I've seen in more than a month! :laugh:

I can't say I was ever a fan of the Dvorak, but every good investor knows it doesn't matter whether the analysis is correct or flawed but rather how many people will read it and act on it.

To me he's giving AMD some tough love, I disagree with the tactic but I kind of appreciate that at least he cares enough to try. IMO Dvorak has never really been value-add to the industry, he's one of those guys whose entire credibility in the industry hinges on timely criticism of the obviously underperforming so as to continually sell himself as a technical analyst that must be looked up to when he speaks.

The counter-argument to Dvorak's rant against AMD being prepared for this subpar market segment is that AMD bought ATi in part to gain an upper-hand (at some point) in this segment with the lower-end of their envisioned Fusion product line.

That about sums it out... "AMD misses the point, intel leads with atom" is all nice and neat, but intel has its own fusion which is expected (in theory) to dominate that market segment. (while the atom is more fitting for the ipod type devices).

They are taking their sweet time getting there though... And they have been way behind on the laptop market.
 

jones377

Senior member
May 2, 2004
467
70
91
AMD has (had?) a core named Bobcat on their roadmaps for the sub-10W market. But it appears to have dissapeared, probably due to the cost cutting and layoffs. They simply can't afford to keep so many projects going at the same time.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
0
I couldn't disagree with this guy more than I do .

Lets look at the present wars that are raging. Between Intel and AMD/NV. At the same time why did AMD by ATI.

AMD had to by ATI because Intels Road Maps were saying intel had hugh planes with multi core. After Intel discovered its wasn't going to beable to ramp GHz .

AMD also knew that Intel Was going to make a GPU/CPU. SO they buy ATI and fusion was born . Make know mistake about it AMD had to buy ATI or NV . ATI was WAy Cheaper. I think AMD made a good decision very good indeed, in fact. I don't like Hector much. But I thought this move was Brillant. We shall see with the ATI 4870x2.

AMD new Intel was going multicore. AMD is going Multi core . ON both CPU / GPU .

ODD man out NV / Hence NV love match with Via.

As the die gets smaller = roadmaps. What goes on the chips increases along with number of cores.

Whats got AMD and NV all pissie is Intel Is way ahead of them they can see it with Atom they can see it with Nehalem and Larrabee has them worried . Not so much in the Graphics end yet but in the fact its X86 which means the CPU can more than likely interface with the X86 16 core larrabbe rather well. I expect well find that out with the larrabbe card in the high end Nahalem using the QPlink.

IF AMD can survive this storm here their future looks good .
If they survive later we shall find out why ATI was the correct smart choice. It all has to do with EPIC.
That is why just recently AMD has been crying about Intels compilers.

I was kind of shocked to read the thread at XT about INTEL USB 3 . Talk about on bunch of misguided people.
Intel is NOT creating a standard here. They are following one. It is Intel that is developing the hardware inside the chip to get 10x speed improvement . They are ahead of everyone thats ALL . THEY are the first . They are Number 1 get over it. They spent the money . They should enjoy the fruits of their endeavor. You take the reward away from innovation and you get stagnatation. Is that what everyone wants?
Somebody has to lead innovation . Those who are second cry about the leader . Who at the moment is a well oiled machine that is pushing the boundries of tech . Any enthusist that stands against what intel is doing right now . not the past . Stands against progress and innovation.

AMD is on the right track its just can they pull it off . NV is dead in the water.

And the auther of the topic has hendsight only. Hector seen the future its just did he see it in time to save AMD .

 

heyheybooboo

Diamond Member
Jun 29, 2007
6,278
0
0
John C. Dvorak ?? I thought you were dead.

(Sorry - saw Snake Plisken the other night)


Better late than never. I'm guessing ol' John has a wee bit of dementia ... from May, 2005:

AMD's Geode LX Processor Chipset

Only missed it by 3 years, Johnnie. Still sippin' that WIntel koolaid!

Four years if you count the Via Epia mini-ITX...


Intel stockholders may want to go, "Hmmmm...."

 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,587
10,227
126
Originally posted by: Nemesis 1
I was kind of shocked to read the thread at XT about INTEL USB 3 . Talk about on bunch of misguided people.
Intel is NOT creating a standard here. They are following one. It is Intel that is developing the hardware inside the chip to get 10x speed improvement . They are ahead of everyone thats ALL . THEY are the first . They are Number 1 get over it. They spent the money . They should enjoy the fruits of their endeavor. You take the reward away from innovation and you get stagnatation. Is that what everyone wants?
Somebody has to lead innovation . Those who are second cry about the leader . Who at the moment is a well oiled machine that is pushing the boundries of tech . Any enthusist that stands against what intel is doing right now . not the past . Stands against progress and innovation.

So what you are saying is that USB3 is NOT a standard, it's an outright proprietary Intel technology?

That's what the article is complaining about. Do you have any idea what kind of nightmare it is going to be, if every chipset company comes out with their own version of USB3? The whole point of USB is supposed standardization. If that falls through, the sucess of USB3 is doomed.


 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
0
How could you possiably end up with that conclusion. USB3 is a standard that has no hardware. Somebody has to design and fab the circuits inorder for the standard to be finilized. Intel has a fardware circuit almost ready. Intel designed this circuit and right now its in the validation mode.

Intel spent lots of Money to design this circuit.

What AMD/NV is crying about is that they want the design right now befor intel has it completely debugged. AMD and NV should have been designing their own USB devices to compete with intels at the same time winner becomes the standarded. But if Intel did that they would have to wait 4 years for both to develop a competing part. Right now Both NV and AMD are doing alot of crying because they lag and want a free meal ticket.

If you guys believe intel should just hand the designed circuit over to AMD/NV without Monetary compesation your nuts.

Kinda sorta offtopic . But Dvorak and his hindsight is the topic. I was just saying this on account . If one believes 1/3 off what intel researches makes it into market. One must pay attention . You can bet AMD was watching intels research but they may of bought ATI to late in the game. Dvorak had he wriitten this 3 years ago would have shown some forsight. But thats about when Hector seen the handwriting on the wall. Intels is hitting on all cylinders and we have tech companies trying to derail the train . Thats why I brought up USB3 . Intel does the work spends the cash and AMD/NV want a free ride.
Looks to me like intels farsightedness has caused it a hugh problems.

Other tech companies worried their tech will disappear from the market . So they are willing to stop progress for their own survival . IN the end the east will have all your tech.
Because intel will be broken up and the eastern power houses will run unchecked.
 

myocardia

Diamond Member
Jun 21, 2003
9,291
30
91
No, John Dvorak is only infamous (as opposed to famous) for his opinions. The Dvorak keyboard is named after August Dvorak, it's co-creator.
 

Lonyo

Lifer
Aug 10, 2002
21,938
6
81
Whatever you call the things, they were triggered by the success of the $400 EeePC from ASUS. These are smallish machines with 7- to 10-inch screens and look like they were mostly influenced by the cheap $200 OLPC (One Laptop per Child) machines, designed for the Third World.

Wait, what's that? The OLPC laptop that inspired all these machines runs an AMD processor? Say WHAT?! But AMD are missing the market!
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
64
91
Originally posted by: Lonyo
Whatever you call the things, they were triggered by the success of the $400 EeePC from ASUS. These are smallish machines with 7- to 10-inch screens and look like they were mostly influenced by the cheap $200 OLPC (One Laptop per Child) machines, designed for the Third World.

Wait, what's that? The OLPC laptop that inspired all these machines runs an AMD processor? Say WHAT?! But AMD are missing the market!

I also like the implications he's making that a product coming to market can suddenly cause a myriad of other products to come to market within months, including entirely new CPU designs.

Yes Dvorak, the EeePC success a few months ago is exactly what got Via off its ass to begin the design of Nano as well as Intel deciding to design, tape-out, and ruch to market the Atom in 90 days.

A good 60% of his ramblings is just a string of existing product names pulled together in some pseudo-random chronology and passed off as chronology being THE cause-and-effect of the current market situation.

The more I think about how lame it is the more I despise myself for creating this thread.
 

Keysplayr

Elite Member
Jan 16, 2003
21,219
56
91
Originally posted by: Nemesis 1
I couldn't disagree with this guy more than I do .

Lets look at the present wars that are raging. Between Intel and AMD/NV. At the same time why did AMD by ATI.

AMD had to by ATI because Intels Road Maps were saying intel had hugh planes with multi core. After Intel discovered its wasn't going to beable to ramp GHz .

AMD also knew that Intel Was going to make a GPU/CPU. SO they buy ATI and fusion was born . Make know mistake about it AMD had to buy ATI or NV . ATI was WAy Cheaper. I think AMD made a good decision very good indeed, in fact. I don't like Hector much. But I thought this move was Brillant. We shall see with the ATI 4870x2.

AMD new Intel was going multicore. AMD is going Multi core . ON both CPU / GPU .

ODD man out NV / Hence NV love match with Via.

As the die gets smaller = roadmaps. What goes on the chips increases along with number of cores.

Whats got AMD and NV all pissie is Intel Is way ahead of them they can see it with Atom they can see it with Nehalem and Larrabee has them worried . Not so much in the Graphics end yet but in the fact its X86 which means the CPU can more than likely interface with the X86 16 core larrabbe rather well. I expect well find that out with the larrabbe card in the high end Nahalem using the QPlink.

IF AMD can survive this storm here their future looks good .
If they survive later we shall find out why ATI was the correct smart choice. It all has to do with EPIC.
That is why just recently AMD has been crying about Intels compilers.

I was kind of shocked to read the thread at XT about INTEL USB 3 . Talk about on bunch of misguided people.
Intel is NOT creating a standard here. They are following one. It is Intel that is developing the hardware inside the chip to get 10x speed improvement . They are ahead of everyone thats ALL . THEY are the first . They are Number 1 get over it. They spent the money . They should enjoy the fruits of their endeavor. You take the reward away from innovation and you get stagnatation. Is that what everyone wants?
Somebody has to lead innovation . Those who are second cry about the leader . Who at the moment is a well oiled machine that is pushing the boundries of tech . Any enthusist that stands against what intel is doing right now . not the past . Stands against progress and innovation.

AMD is on the right track its just can they pull it off . NV is dead in the water.

And the auther of the topic has hendsight only. Hector seen the future its just did he see it in time to save AMD .

I'm not sure if AMD is "pissie" or not, but why would Nvidia be "pissie" about Atom?

Headline: "Nvidia Rivals Intels Atom"
http://www.eetindia.co.in/ART_...800001_NP_bea9043d.HTM

And what of Nehalem? Nice chip for sure. Nice improvement over Penryn, but that's about it. And Larrabee? Dude, until we get some concrete numbers from this thing, it is as good as nothing. Honestly, How can you expect Intel to compete graphics wise with either ATI or Nvidia? Intel has the money for sure. But whether or not they have the "know how" has yet to be seen.
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,986
1
0
Dvorak's great. Like him or hate him, he gets people thinking. (And he's right on AMD.)
 

heyheybooboo

Diamond Member
Jun 29, 2007
6,278
0
0
Originally posted by: keysplayr2003
Originally posted by: Nemesis 1
I couldn't disagree with this guy more than I do .

Lets look at the present wars that are raging. Between Intel and AMD/NV. At the same time why did AMD by ATI.

AMD had to by ATI because Intels Road Maps were saying intel had hugh planes with multi core. After Intel discovered its wasn't going to beable to ramp GHz .

AMD also knew that Intel Was going to make a GPU/CPU. SO they buy ATI and fusion was born . Make know mistake about it AMD had to buy ATI or NV . ATI was WAy Cheaper. I think AMD made a good decision very good indeed, in fact. I don't like Hector much. But I thought this move was Brillant. We shall see with the ATI 4870x2.

AMD new Intel was going multicore. AMD is going Multi core . ON both CPU / GPU .

ODD man out NV / Hence NV love match with Via.

As the die gets smaller = roadmaps. What goes on the chips increases along with number of cores.

Whats got AMD and NV all pissie is Intel Is way ahead of them they can see it with Atom they can see it with Nehalem and Larrabee has them worried . Not so much in the Graphics end yet but in the fact its X86 which means the CPU can more than likely interface with the X86 16 core larrabbe rather well. I expect well find that out with the larrabbe card in the high end Nahalem using the QPlink.

IF AMD can survive this storm here their future looks good .
If they survive later we shall find out why ATI was the correct smart choice. It all has to do with EPIC.
That is why just recently AMD has been crying about Intels compilers.

I was kind of shocked to read the thread at XT about INTEL USB 3 . Talk about on bunch of misguided people.
Intel is NOT creating a standard here. They are following one. It is Intel that is developing the hardware inside the chip to get 10x speed improvement . They are ahead of everyone thats ALL . THEY are the first . They are Number 1 get over it. They spent the money . They should enjoy the fruits of their endeavor. You take the reward away from innovation and you get stagnatation. Is that what everyone wants?
Somebody has to lead innovation . Those who are second cry about the leader . Who at the moment is a well oiled machine that is pushing the boundries of tech . Any enthusist that stands against what intel is doing right now . not the past . Stands against progress and innovation.

AMD is on the right track its just can they pull it off . NV is dead in the water.

And the auther of the topic has hendsight only. Hector seen the future its just did he see it in time to save AMD .

I'm not sure if AMD is "pissie" or not, but why would Nvidia be "pissie" about Atom?

Headline: "Nvidia Rivals Intels Atom"
http://www.eetindia.co.in/ART_...800001_NP_bea9043d.HTM

And what of Nehalem? Nice chip for sure. Nice improvement over Penryn, but that's about it. And Larrabee? Dude, until we get some concrete numbers from this thing, it is as good as nothing. Honestly, How can you expect Intel to compete graphics wise with either ATI or Nvidia? Intel has the money for sure. But whether or not they have the "know how" has yet to be seen.

Maybe they could bring back the Intel i740 AGP card ?

:)