Yeah, it's interesting. One could make a strong case for any of the three top contenders . . . Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, but since the last two already have multiple MVP awards, that might be the tie breaker.
This years MVP race/narrative has an interesting shift in the narrative. There's been consistent arguments for the past 3 seasons that Jokic is the best player in the NBA because he has the best advanced stat metrics. Whether it is VORP, BPM, LEBRON, or RAPTOR (gag, I hate Fivethirtyfive's attempt at sports statistics), Jokic is well beyond his peers. The problem with these metrics is that they are biased to certain play styles. It goes deep into the math of how these calculations are made, but essentially, Jokic is an extreme outlier that breaks many of the metrics. On the one hand, you could say Jokic is that good of a player and the metrics are quantifying just how good he is.
On the other hand, there is the old school "eye test." For some of these advanced metrics, like RAPTOR, Jokic is a top 5 defensive player in the NBA. Other metrics have him as a top 20 defensive player. The worst is his DBPM rating that has him as the #1 defensive player, and amazingly, his value for 2022-2023 would place him tied for 5th for all time defensive performances by any NBA player (2021-2022 would be 6th!). Anybody who has watched Jokic, would never put him on the same level of the well-known defensive players that will win the defensive player of the year award (Lopez, JJJ, etc). Some would even rate Jokic as average and at times a liability on the defensive end. So there is an extreme disconnect between the eye test and these advance stats.
And that's what, thankfully, has changed this year and may lead to a non-Jokic winner for MVP. Seems like defensive prowess is now further highlighted, and there is better acknowledgement that advanced stats are convoluted and possibly misleading. Jokic may still win based on his offensive skillset, but I'm just glad more are appreciating how advanced stats can't place a single numerical value on a player that accurately assesses their contribution on both sides of the court. Better models are needed, and maybe someday someone will create a much better metric than the crappy RAPTOR rating system.