Other people are feeling way too confident about Biden running against Death Santis. Although his recent polling is weak, in just one election cycle, RDS took FL from a coin flip to a runaway red state. Not to say FL maps well to other key states in the general election, but as you said, he's already proven he can swing a lot of moderates.
I could be wrong, but based on Trump's electoral history, I feel that Trump wins only if the election is a referendum on Biden's first term (i.e. his approval rating does not improve). It's pretty safe to say Trump will lose the popular vote even if he somehow wins the EC. OTOH RDS could potentially win on his own "merits." The hardest part will be gaining the (R) nomination; but in the general, you know he'll dial back the culture war nonsense (to a degree) and try to run on his gubernatorial record. And if Trump loses the primary elections, that means his tight grip on the GOP loosened and I would then question his ability to sabotage the GOP candidate.
Finally, our world IS the bizarro world. Where historically low unemployment sees a majority of Americans outright claiming the economy is "bad." We know tribalism requires Repubs to bash the economy whenever a Democrat is POTUS, but that doesn't explain why so many moderates think the same thing. As
@MrSquished might say, if we can't even convince our
own voters that the sky is blue, then we have a severe messaging problem.