SlowSpyder
Lifer
Sure, absolutely. But 100% of retiree's positions are not taken by new people joining the workforce. The math he used only makes sense if that is the case, and that isn't reality.
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Jobs Report GREAT NEWS (unless you're a republican)
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Sure, absolutely. But 100% of retiree's positions are not taken by new people joining the workforce. The math he used only makes sense if that is the case, and that isn't reality.
MomentsofSanity
Lifer
No that's not accurate. Those two retire. Two people below them move into their jobs. Etc.. Etc... The two graduates now occupy an entry position vacated by the movement of the others.
You are looking at it too literally.
Brainonska511
Lifer
It sounds like you like to play Chicken Little with your investments. Better to just invest and hold and don't worry about the small bumps in the road.
Joepublic2
Golden Member
I stand to make a nice chunk of change after the brexit vote. I bought a FTSE index fund a few days after the vote to exit because I knew the fear-mongering media would be pissed that the UK didn't make the "right" decision, spout gloom and doom, and the markets would have a panic sell off as a result. I didn't expect it to rebound quite so quickly or strongly, though. That did surprise me.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...her-rbs-makes-a-loss-and-william-hill-closes/
Of course it wouldn't have always been 10/12 or 12/12. That would be assuming that the size and composition of our labor force is static and it most certainly is not. In fact, that was the whole point of my example, which seems to have escaped you.
People join (turn 16) and leave the labor force (die) every day. For the next 20 years or so however will be that we have an expanding portion of the population that is still considered to be in the labor force by the BLS definition but is no longer working nor desires to work. (retirees) At the same time we continue to have new people join the labor force (turn 16). That means that our labor force participation rate will naturally decline for the next couple of decades at least until the boomers die off.
There is really no way around it, it's just math. As a larger proportion of the population becomes an age where people tend to stop working you will see the labor force participation rate decline, all else being equal. It should be expected.
Which has been anticipated ever since Reagan. Boomers & GenX'ers have invested heavily is the SS trust funds, pensions, 401k's & their homes.
Meh. That's a shitty attitude & a broad brush smear.
rudder
Lifer
Which came after the meltdown initiated by acts Clinton signed into law. But I digress.
Bush was anything but a fiscal conservative but I would take the Bush deficits rather than the debt wrung up by Obama.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51580
Not sure about Trump because he is a man without details, but with Clinton we know the problem will grow.
So cheer your quarter of a million jobs...kudos to Obama. But while he has been long retired the shit will hit the fan. But hey leftists scored a shit ton of Internet brownie points!
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Gawd. Nafta was signed by GHWB before he left office, needing only ratification by Congress, not Clinton. Just an inconvenient fact for you, obviously. Manufacturing employment didn't take a nosedive until the GWB years. Manufacturing output has actually gone up as employment fell, indicating that automation is a helluva lot bigger factor than offshoring. It can be no other way.
It wasn't the law that allowed the bankers to blow up the economy but rather preaching the ownership society from the bully pulpit & ridiculously lax regulation by the Bushistas.
Oh, yeh- with Doom!, of course.
Thump553
Lifer
So a whole generation all acted the same, huh? I raised four kids and put them through college on my dime. Lived very frugally-probably went on a vacation trip maybe once a decade, if that. Initially our savings got eaten up by inflation, then stagflation for the past couple of decades really sapped our earning power (unless your daddy's name was Trump).
Pray tell, what are the country's real issues? Unfettered gun rights? Outright ban of abortion in all cases, government dictation of personal decisions such as sexual preferences, etc.? Our generation (Bill Clinton) did balance the budget and made real strides towards lowering the deficit until GWB gave it all away and then went crazy war spending.
Ungrateful wretch.
ivwshane
Lifer
I thought it was pretty obvious that the comment I was making was a generalized statement.
Ungrateful? I'm certainly ungrateful that the generation that organized against war is the same generation that meddled in other countries and brought more war, death and destruction into this world once they became they came into power. I'm ungrateful that the generation that helped fight for civil rights and equal rights is now the generation that stands in the way of progress towards those same causes. I'm ungrateful that the generation that once stood against "the man" and corporatism became the generation that put money before people and religion before country and has become "the man". I'm ungrateful that the generation that once was all about personal responsibility and community living did a 180 and has relied on future generations to take care of them while those same future generations get the shaft because of their refusal to enact proper change in that same system to keep it working for future generations. Sure I'm grateful that the boomer generation started off great but I'm not grateful that then they turned into the very thing they were against once they became a political force.
For all the good that generation did it was negated by all the shit they either voted for or let happen on their watch.
They went from peace and love to greed is good and their selfish, shortsighted policies have now come back to bite them in the ass all while screwing the generations of people that will come after them.
You know what else the "me generation" gave us? Donald fucking trump! Trump encapsulates the boomer generation and everything that's wrong with it perfectly.
So congrats on being able to raise a family of four with a good enough wage to do so, you should totally be proud that your generation will probably be the last one to do that in a long while (at least until most of you are gone).
Mai72
Lifer
Actually Howard Stern gave us Donald Trump. CNN has an interesting article on the evolution of Trump, and how Stern's radio show 20 years ago started the angry white man syndrome. It's an interesting article.
I'm going to take a much different view on the economy that I seriously doubt many people are going to agree with me. You need to think a bit outside the box.
Ok. We are going thru a monumental shift in our economy. A major disruption. If you don't know what I'm talking about you should read "Disrupt You." Anyway, the traditional way that many Americans entered the workforc was to go to college, graduate and find a decent job that paid well. That model isn't working that well for many young people today. For one, student loan debt is at 1.3T. Many people are graduating and they can't find work, or they are taking positions that are beneath their abilities. The truth is you don't need to go to college to make money. There are plenty of examples of people who are financially successful and they either quit school, didnt attend or went in another direction. They aren't even using their degree. I've met and read about so many people pursued something entirely different when they graduated.
Another thing that no body has brought up is the internet, and how it's changing industries and people's lives. There are 16 year olds who make 6 figures. There are many people who make $50k a year doing what they love online. Yea, I know many older people have a difficult time listening to the fact that many people make money thru their laptops and smartphones. It's real. Older people have been conditioned to think you need to work at a traditional job to make money. Not so. The internet is a game changer.
Back to the economy. Automaton and globalization have and will continue to disrupt our economy. Many traditional jobs are going to disappear. We will see driverless cars and trucks and Amazon drones. Uber is wrecking havoc on the cab industry. VR is going to replace going to replace shopping online. Newspapers, radio and TV are going to be threatened. Universities are going to feel the pressure from online colleges. I could go on.
All you need to do is look at the past to see where the future is headed. People in Flint Michigan were making $40 an hour just 20 years ago.
I'm going to take a much different view on the economy that I seriously doubt many people are going to agree with me. You need to think a bit outside the box.
Ok. We are going thru a monumental shift in our economy. A major disruption. If you don't know what I'm talking about you should read "Disrupt You." Anyway, the traditional way that many Americans entered the workforc was to go to college, graduate and find a decent job that paid well. That model isn't working that well for many young people today. For one, student loan debt is at 1.3T. Many people are graduating and they can't find work, or they are taking positions that are beneath their abilities. The truth is you don't need to go to college to make money. There are plenty of examples of people who are financially successful and they either quit school, didnt attend or went in another direction. They aren't even using their degree. I've met and read about so many people pursued something entirely different when they graduated.
Another thing that no body has brought up is the internet, and how it's changing industries and people's lives. There are 16 year olds who make 6 figures. There are many people who make $50k a year doing what they love online. Yea, I know many older people have a difficult time listening to the fact that many people make money thru their laptops and smartphones. It's real. Older people have been conditioned to think you need to work at a traditional job to make money. Not so. The internet is a game changer.
Back to the economy. Automaton and globalization have and will continue to disrupt our economy. Many traditional jobs are going to disappear. We will see driverless cars and trucks and Amazon drones. Uber is wrecking havoc on the cab industry. VR is going to replace going to replace shopping online. Newspapers, radio and TV are going to be threatened. Universities are going to feel the pressure from online colleges. I could go on.
All you need to do is look at the past to see where the future is headed. People in Flint Michigan were making $40 an hour just 20 years ago.
It's pretty obvious that you need to get over yourself. It's the same mentality as the Trumpsters directed towards boomers rather than minorities & women.
ivwshane
Lifer
Which is the same mentality you have against Republicans and the right. The difference, as I'm sure you are quite aware, is that there is no truth to what trump says.
Don't take it personal, it's not your fault that your generation sucks, in general.
We're both right-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement
It doesn't change anything. Automation & robot assembly take a bigger bite out of manufacturing jobs than offshoring, I figure. It's not like Nafta changed the trend line. Even the Chinese are on their way to being automated out of their jobs.
rudder
Lifer
Gawd huh? So by using that term you wish to insinuate you know what the hell you are talking about?
Please google the following and get back to me:
The Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000
This act in essence deregulated the OTC derivitives market. This has been discussed ad nauseum so I don't wish to explain it any further.
This is why P&N has devolved into sensible people arguing with folks suffering from LBD. You know one month lambasting Wall Street and corporate money in politics and the next licking the dog shit off Hilary's shoes because she is so wonderful. Free yourself from your safe space and maybe you will grow to see the Political leaders for what they really are (regardless of the R or D next to their name).
werepossum
Elite Member
Very difficult to do that since people drop out of the work force from both ends, gave up trying to find a job (i.e. bad economy) and don't need a job (i.e. investments and/or spouse doing well enough to not work.) I agree it's a problem because Social Security is a Ponzi scheme dependent on an ever-increasing number of workers, but I see no way to quantify the number of people not working by cause.Good news but concerns about labor force participation are legitimate and should be addressed while you're crowing about the headline unemployment rate.
werepossum
Elite Member
Say rather that the AMERICAN free market economy based on human labor is dying. It's still booming in Red China and Germany. We elected to choose the path where we get cheap imported stuff, the path that leads to national debt exceeding GDP, the path that yields a huge number of poor people dependent on government, a relatively small number of very wealthy, and a smallish Mandarin class of government workers and talented professionals. Within that framework, 255,000 new $10 jobs is about the best we can expect.
Somebody at Clown College is very proud that Anandtech has adopted his new forum software.
If you think we got 255,000 new $10/hour jobs you should actually go read the jobs report. Wage growth has been considerably higher this year than at any time since the financial crash. If all the jobs were $10/hour jobs we would see declines in wages, not growth.
Funny what people believe. According to the World Bank, the labor force participation rate in Germany is 60%, in China 71% & it's been falling in both countries.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.ZS
We're not in Jamestown anymore.
werepossum
Elite Member
Good to hear, although it will be awhile before I have time to read it.
DrPizza
Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
But, obviously, not a while before you can make incorrect comments on it. Maybe you should reflect on that point.
Spungo
Diamond Member
I laugh every time I hear this argument. The millennial generation is larger than the baby boomer generation. There are more millennials hitting the market than there are baby boomers leaving the market. The overall labor participation should be rising. The fact that it's not is why we have this overwhelming consensus that we're still in a depression. Young people are strong supporters of Bernie because he's saying everything is shit. Hillbot is saying everything is awesome, which is absolutely true if you're ultra rich like she is.
https://www.reddit.com/r/lostgeneration/
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