Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: conjur
Let's look at the indicators:
Negative savings rate (conversely: skyrocketing personal debt)
yes this has been on the decline for sometime. However investments are left out of the saving rate. So it appears this leaves much out.
Investments? By whom? The rich? They're a small % of the population. The middle class needs to be investing in order to support themselves in their retirement years. That's going to just be subsistence money. Hardly anything to crow about as signs of a great economy. Or do you mean the rising equity in houses? Oh wait, what equity? Many new mortgages are interest-only or 100% financed or there are 2nd mortgages. There is no equity.
Wages rising < rate of inflation
total compensation is rising faster than inflation.
Proof?
Try this on:
http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots_07162004
http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeat_econindicators_wages_20051215
ecause of the large decline in inflation in November, hourly wages, adjusted for inflation, were up 1% over the month, according to today's Real Earnings release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite a decline in weekly hours last month, real weekly earnings were also up, by 0.6%.
These real wage gains were largely driven by the 8% decline in energy costs last month, leading the consumer price index (CPI) down 0.6% in November, the biggest monthly drop in over 50 years.
Despite these monthly gains in November, both hourly and weekly earnings are lower, in real terms, compared to the same month one year ago. In fact, on a yearly basis, real hourly wages are down in all but two of the last 19 months. For real weekly earnings, 13 of the last 14 months show yearly declines.
With today's release, we have a full four years of real wage data over the recovery that began in November 2001. The real hourly earnings of non-managers in services and blue-collar workers in manufacturing (the sample covered by this survey, which represents more than 80% of payroll employment) are down slightly over this period, as shown in the figure.
Thus, after four years of solid GDP growth and impressive productivity growth (13.5% in the same time period), the average hourly wage of workers in these occupations is down by five cents. Even the large monthly spike last month only replaces the real value lost a few months ago (see figure).
In other words, one great month cannot erase the damage done to real wage trends over the longer term. The loss of five cents in four years is clearly not a success story.
Of course, that big increase was due to a sharp drop in gas prices. Well, that drop in gas prices has been replaced by the recent spike upward in prices.
More people living in poverty
but still at historicaly low levels.
Hunh?
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002719083_poverty04m.html
After declines in the 1990s, child poverty is rising across Washington.
Statewide, the child-poverty rate was 13.7 percent in 1997 but declined to 11.4 percent in 2000 as the economy boomed. Poverty has increased each year since then, census figures show.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/26/news/economy/poverty_survey/
The percentage of the U.S. population living in poverty rose to 12.5 percent from 12.1 percent -- as the poverty rate among children jumped to its highest level in 10 years, the Census Bureau said in an annual report. The rate for adults 18-to-64 and 65-and-older remained steady.
The bureau also said the share of aggregate income for the lowest 20 percent of Americans fell to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent.
http://www.npc.umich.edu/poverty/
In 2004, 12.7 percent of all persons lived in poverty. In 1993 the poverty rate was 15.1 percent. Between 1993 and 2000, the poverty rate fell each year, reaching 11.3 percent in 2000. Poverty has risen in each of the last four years.
The trend is to more and more people living in poverty. Your "historical" perspective doesn't mean squat. It's the trend that matters. Trends don't turn around on a dime and there's nothing to indicate any slowdown in this trend.
More people losing healthcare coverage
It is up, but it is not huge percentage increase.
Oh?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55301-2004Sep27.html
That trend has already begun. From 2001 to 2004, the proportion of workers receiving health coverage through an employer fell from 65 percent to 61 percent, according to the latest Kaiser data. That decline translated into 5 million fewer jobs providing health benefits, with the sharpest drop in small businesses.
...
The number of Americans without health insurance for all of 2003 hit a record 45 million, or 15.6 percent of the population, the highest percentage since 1998, when it was 16.3 percent, according to the latest Census Bureau figures. An analysis by the Lewin Group for Families USA, however, estimates that over a two-year period the number of people lacking insurance for at least one month is much higher and rising.
In 2003-2004, about 85 million were uninsured for some period of time, an increase of 12.7 million over the 1999-2000 estimates. Uninsured rates for Hispanics jumped from 50 percent to 61 percent.
Healthcare costs rising >10%/yr
Yes they are. This first real problem in the list. But this appears to be driven by consumer demand for the best money can by. Consumers rejected HMOs which did for brief time help contain health care costs.
Oh yeah, HMOs were just *wonderful* programs. :roll:
The costs also have to do with an administration that cares more for corporate profits than the well-being of Americans (just look at that disgusting rider on the Patriot Act absolving Eli Lilly of any responsibility re: vaccinations causing autism)
Education (college tuition) in double-digit increases each year
Still one of best investments a person can make in themselves.
If they can do it. With job prospects worse than they have been in the recent past, large student loans will consume a lot more income for a recent grad. Plus, interest rates are now rising on the loans (there was a recent thread discussing that)
Stock markets flat for the last 5 years
Actually longer, but there was also a big buble that needed to be erased. The past 3 year performance is quite good.
Ah, back to cherry-picking date ranges, eh?
Gold at 25-year highs
adjst it to inflation and try again.
Uh...what?
Real Estate bubble bursting
It appears this is going to be a soft landing and buble pop.
Not so in many cities, such as Boston. There are people here in Louisville that are having a hard time selling homes, too. There's one right down the street from me that's been on the market for at least 4 months and they've dropped the price twice.
Hedge funds teetering
no idea, but it seems someone is always complaing about them
For good reason.
Christmas season sales lacking (well, profits will be anyway)
It appears sales were decent. But it would not matter as you find any christmas sales to be negative(up too much the consumer is charging, down to low the consumer is out of cash, next gloom item
Sales may have been "decent" but at what cost to the stores? 50-60% discounts for most of the shopping season aren't helping profits any.
Yearly fiscal deficits >$300 billion
When compared to gdp or inflation it is not a big problem. Debt to gdp appears to falling, lets hope this trend continues.
It sure is a problem. $300 billion is a sh*tload of money! Multiplied by 5 (the project budget shortfall will be that much each year for the next five years), you run into well over $1 trillion. What's the cost of the Iraq War? What's the cost of that Medicare prescription drug bill?
Iraq War costs to rise over $1 trillion (when factoring in long-term costs of injured soldiers - now over 30,000)
I have little doubt we can afford trillion over the next several decades to care for those who served.
We can't afford the $1 trillion for the Medicare drug bill that was passed (under a lot of deception and arm-twisting I might add)
Yeah....great future for the economy
Your gloomy outlook on the economy does not make it gloomy.
Your spin doesn't match up with your rose-colored glasses.
As for Stunt and Pabster, I'm not surprised to see you all fluffing.
