Well JWST should help narrow down
ne and possibly
fe
There’s already a few gates we’ve passed through that could have significantly reduced N.
For life like us as you well know you need many elements on the periodic table above hydrogen and helium so you need 2nd and more likely 3rd generation stars as supernova are required to produce elements above iron. Our sun and solar system are
Likely a third generation system.
It also appears that a lot of the heavier elements we are more often produced via neutron star mergers via
r-process nucleosynthesis
Those explosions while great for producing heavy elements from hydrogen aren’t great for life anywhere with in dozens or hundreds of light years. So habitable regions of our galaxy had to produce those elements and then settle down before life on Earth could start without being wiped out
Single called life formed fairly quickly on Earth - within the first billion years or so. It then took almost 3 Billion more years for multicellular organisms to form.
So all of this is a long winded way of saying of the 13.7B years this universe has existed it may have taken more than 90% of that time before it was even possible for multicellular life to form. We could literally be one of the first intelligent organisms to send signals into space - at least in our local area.
Of course if the reason we haven’t found anyone is because intelligent races kill themselves off before they can send signals for long or as you point out game theory says stay quiet, shoot first and ask questions later then we as a species are screwed.
I’m actually in the middle of “The Dark Forest” from the the “Three Body” series. And of course the Expanse novels and TV series cover this issue too (They literally put the Drake Equation on screen at one point.)