465mm2 for 40 broadwell cores with 100MB L3 cache (see post
#22) + 107 mm2 for the rest of the processor including 40 PCIe lanes, quad channel memory controller (see post
#28 for the 238 mm2 die estimate for "parts of 18C Haswell beyond cores and L3 cache" which would be ~2.23 times greater in size than if were shrunk to 14nm (see post #23), so 238 mm2 * 1/2.23= 107 mm2).
You
can't assume that. Uncores, Cores, Caches all have different scaling factors.
Also, I just found out the core sizes on the Core M chip and the Core i3/i5/i7 15/28W chips are different. The Core M cores are ~7mm2 and the latter turns out to be 8.2mm2. The reason is likely because Core M is using 14nm SoC process and 15W/28W ones use regular process. Xeon D is likely using the SoC process.
The shared L3 cache blocks on Core M are 6.6mm2 and Core ix are 7.2mm2. The System Agent section is 11.82mm2 on the former and 12.41mm2 on the latter.
That means while there is a density advantage, there is a significant clock speed sacrifice. Because Xeon EP and EX chips have high-frequency counterparts and they are all derivatives from the same die, it means they need to all use the regular process, not the slower and denser SoC one.
New math: 328mm2 for 40 cores, 180mm2 for 100MB L3 = 508mm2, or ~510mm2.
And you need to add the Uncore. And its the
least scalable part of the chip. Haswell's 2 channel memory controller is 10.7mm2. Broadwell is nearly 8mm2. I highly doubt the Uncores would scale better than to be 60% of the size. And the Uncores have to be further larger because it has to support more cores. 60% scaling with Uncore means 143mm2 or total of 653mm2.
I also doubt they would make something much larger than 700mm2 anyway. The much lower volume Knights Landing is supposedly 720mm2.
If the size is ok, power won't be. So there is no reason for them to put in 40 cores either way.
Couple of reasons why what you are proposing won't happen:
1. Power, power power. Too much power for 40 cores
2. Die sizes are way too large for a "Tick".
Nehalem EX - 45nm 8 cores. 684mm2
Westmere EX - 32nm 10 cores. 513mm2
Ivy Bridge EX - 22nm 15 cores, 541mm2
Haswell EX - 22nm 18 cores. 664mm2
Tick = Smaller Die, Tock = Bigger die
What happens to Skylake EX if Broadwell EX already turns out to be 700mm2? Are they going to put 54 cores on the same 14nm process? Simply put Broadwell EX has to be in the ~500mm2 range.