It's over.

[Moonbeam]

Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

 

[alchemize]

Somebody has to buy those houses

It's kind of like Citibank. A 25% growth on a $1 stock doesn't mean much...

I'm skeptical for now, as you can see...

edit: here are some details, it's all in apartments/condos. Investors looking to rent...

The improvement in starts was led by the multifamily component which made an 82.3 percent monthly surge while the single-family component edged up 1.1 percent.

By region, the rebound in starts was led by a monthly 88.6 percent jump in the Northeast, followed by gains of 58.5 percent in the Midwest and 30.2 percent in the South. Starts were down 24.6 percent in the West.

...

While gains in starts are certainly more encouraging than declines, today's numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Seasonal factors are large during winter months and it does not take much to jack up the adjusted numbers. And this likely was the case-especially with the volatile multifamily component taking the lead. January was not as weak as many believed and February is not as strong as suggested by the headline.

 

[JTsyo]

Originally posted by: alchemize
Somebody has to buy those houses

It's kind of like Citibank. A 25% growth on a $1 stock doesn't mean much...

I'm skeptical for now, as you can see...

I wouldn't be surprised if it went up and then dropped a few time before we see the actual recovery. I don't think people have full confidence yet and will jump out at the first sign of trouble. I also think the financial sector won't recover to previous levels. The industry seemed bloated and now should be leaner going forward.

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: JTsyo

Originally posted by: alchemize
Somebody has to buy those houses

It's kind of like Citibank. A 25% growth on a $1 stock doesn't mean much...

I'm skeptical for now, as you can see...

I wouldn't be surprised if it went up and then dropped a few time before we see the actual recovery. I don't think people have full confidence yet and will jump out at the first sign of trouble. I also think the financial sector won't recover to previous levels. The industry seemed bloated and now should be leaner going forward.

You are likely right... but still, this kind of fluctuation, generally indicates that the bottom has been found, meaning we have only upwards to go. =) good news!

 

[Atreus21]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

Sure. When house prices are going so low, it's just matter of time until it rebounds. It's a great market to be buying in right now.

 

[43st]

Ownership society!! Weeeee!!!

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

Look at the bottom center graph. This increase in housing starts was only a bit more than the decrease in housing starts the month before. We've had 3 unusually large drops followed by this one gain. One month does not indicate a new trend. In fact, if you look at the black trendline on that graph, all this gain did was return us to the linearly falling trendline.

Yes, housing starts can't keep falling forever. Once you get near zero, it is virtually impossible to fall further. So, we must be near the end of the tunnel, it is just that we are at the wrong end of that tunnel. The light is behind us. We only have one way to go and that is up. That is, if we don't just sit and hold our present position.

 

[PingSpike]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

Look at the bottom center graph. This increase in housing starts was only a bit more than the decrease in housing starts the month before. We've had 3 unusually large drops followed by this one gain. One month does not indicate a new trend. In fact, if you look at the black trendline on that graph, all this gain did was return us to the linearly falling trendline.

Yes, housing starts can't keep falling forever. Once you get near zero, it is virtually impossible to fall further. So, we must be near the end of the tunnel, it is just that we are at the wrong end of that tunnel. The light is behind us. We only have one way to go and that is up. That is, if we don't just sit and hold our present position.

I think most people would consider that being near the start of the tunnel?

 

[heyheybooboo]

I'm just guessing but I would say that February is probably the biggest month in the year for pulling building permits.

Extrapolating annual data from the month that generates the greatest number of permits is probably not statistically sound.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

My litmus is the price, not the volume.

 

[TallBill]

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
I'm just guessing but I would say that February is probably the biggest month in the year for pulling building permits.

Extrapolating annual data from the month that generates the greatest number of permits is probably not statistically sound.

Makes sense, start that spring/summer construction.

 

[NaughtyGeek]

So an increase in the amount of new rental properties can be construed as a step in the right direction? Forgive me if I see this as yet another sign we're still heading down.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: NaughtyGeek
So an increase in the amount of new rental properties can be construed as a step in the right direction? Forgive me if I see this as yet another sign we're still heading down.

That was my analysis as well. My first reaction was surprise until I dug into the numbers.

I just put my house up for sale. The showings so far have been:
1) Investors to rent it
2) People who can't sell their house and want to rent it
3) People who can't sell their house and want a contingent contract
4) Relocations (*crosses fingers one of these bites*)

Where I'm moving, I just signed a 1 year lease on a house that they can't sell.

 

[Moonbeam]

When I was a kid and liked to ride horses I used to ask them how it was that when I picked a willow branch they would all run better. It got me curious as to how people see things.

There is a saying I've heard among Bedouin people that there are two things in life, dates and experience, and that if you ask the ignorant what something is that is not a date they will say it must be experience.

From the same area there is a story of Mulla Nasrudin, that when he found an injured parrot he tried to trim its wings and beak to look more like a hawk.

But I think stories like this are too subtle for Western minds. After all, who invented the computer?

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

My litmus is the price, not the volume.

I'm watching the sale of garden hoses.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
When I was a kid and liked to ride horses I used to ask them how it was that when I picked a willow branch they would all run better. It got me curious as to how people see things.

There is a saying I've heard among Bedouin people that there are two things in life, dates and experience, and that if you ask the ignorant what something is that is not a date they will say it must be experience.

From the same area there is a story of Mulla Nasrudin, that when he found an injured parrot he tried to trim its wings and beak to look more like a hawk.

But I think stories like this are too subtle for Western minds. After all, who invented the computer?

what the hell!

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
When I was a kid and liked to ride horses...

what the hell!

You forgot to read the disclaimer in the signature: "The above is probably just my usual sarcasm...as to appear...like total gibberish."

 

[ericlp]

I'm still waiting for Pro John to come in and tell us how it's all GREAT! This is good news and when ever the stock market jumped a few points he'd be in trying to sell how GREAT and WONDERFUL it was... Now that Obama is president and the stock market jumps even 300 points. What the hell? I guess no cookies and donuts for Obama.

Oh well, at least the market is picking up but... like most here I'm not gonna jump for joy till the JOBS return and unemployment goes back down.

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
When I was a kid and liked to ride horses I used to ask them how it was that when I picked a willow branch they would all run better. It got me curious as to how people see things.

There is a saying I've heard among Bedouin people that there are two things in life, dates and experience, and that if you ask the ignorant what something is that is not a date they will say it must be experience.

From the same area there is a story of Mulla Nasrudin, that when he found an injured parrot he tried to trim its wings and beak to look more like a hawk.

But I think stories like this are too subtle for Western minds. After all, who invented the computer?

what the hell!

What part of too subtle for Western minds didn't you understand?

Now if that was a plea for understanding that's different but I think your intention is more reflected by the exclamation.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

Look at the bottom center graph. This increase in housing starts was only a bit more than the decrease in housing starts the month before. We've had 3 unusually large drops followed by this one gain. One month does not indicate a new trend. In fact, if you look at the black trendline on that graph, all this gain did was return us to the linearly falling trendline.

Yes, housing starts can't keep falling forever. Once you get near zero, it is virtually impossible to fall further. So, we must be near the end of the tunnel, it is just that we are at the wrong end of that tunnel. The light is behind us. We only have one way to go and that is up. That is, if we don't just sit and hold our present position.

Well if the gov't starts destroying homes to artificially keep homes prices up it can go negative.

 

[chess9]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

Look at the bottom center graph. This increase in housing starts was only a bit more than the decrease in housing starts the month before. We've had 3 unusually large drops followed by this one gain. One month does not indicate a new trend. In fact, if you look at the black trendline on that graph, all this gain did was return us to the linearly falling trendline.

Yes, housing starts can't keep falling forever. Once you get near zero, it is virtually impossible to fall further. So, we must be near the end of the tunnel, it is just that we are at the wrong end of that tunnel. The light is behind us. We only have one way to go and that is up. That is, if we don't just sit and hold our present position.

Yes, agreed. The fundamentals of this economy are NOT sound right now, contrary to some pundits. We have about 20 states in very serious distress, including some big ones like California, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and NY. We have growing unemployment and a falling GDP. We have broadly low consumer and investor confidence. We have failing financial institutions and one of our largest manufacturers, GM, may file for Chapter 11 soon. Against this backdrop, the building of a few homes in a few strong markets is nothing.

The good news is we are still Americans. That's also the bad news.

-Robert

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: chess9

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

Look at the bottom center graph. This increase in housing starts was only a bit more than the decrease in housing starts the month before. We've had 3 unusually large drops followed by this one gain. One month does not indicate a new trend. In fact, if you look at the black trendline on that graph, all this gain did was return us to the linearly falling trendline.

Yes, housing starts can't keep falling forever. Once you get near zero, it is virtually impossible to fall further. So, we must be near the end of the tunnel, it is just that we are at the wrong end of that tunnel. The light is behind us. We only have one way to go and that is up. That is, if we don't just sit and hold our present position.

Yes, agreed. The fundamentals of this economy are NOT sound right now, contrary to some pundits. We have about 20 states in very serious distress, including some big ones like California, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and NY. We have growing unemployment and a falling GDP. We have broadly low consumer and investor confidence. We have failing financial institutions and one of our largest manufacturers, GM, may file for Chapter 11 soon. Against this backdrop, the building of a few homes in a few strong markets is nothing.

The good news is we are still Americans. That's also the bad news.

-Robert

So there must a bunch of pundits out there and some of them you agree with and some yo don't so you announce your opinion and I'm supposed to listen. What if my taste in pundits is different. Can I then say there are a bunch of pundits out there that agree with Chess but they are wrong?

If the crisis was housing driven and prices have fallen and still there's money to be made in new housing starts according to people who are building there there should be a floor to measure toxic debt and get it off the books, no?

 

[chess9]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: chess9

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?

The biggest jump in housing starts since 1990 were just posted. This has got to be good news for the economy and jobs. Go America. Yes we can. Here comes the sun.

Look at the bottom center graph. This increase in housing starts was only a bit more than the decrease in housing starts the month before. We've had 3 unusually large drops followed by this one gain. One month does not indicate a new trend. In fact, if you look at the black trendline on that graph, all this gain did was return us to the linearly falling trendline.

Yes, housing starts can't keep falling forever. Once you get near zero, it is virtually impossible to fall further. So, we must be near the end of the tunnel, it is just that we are at the wrong end of that tunnel. The light is behind us. We only have one way to go and that is up. That is, if we don't just sit and hold our present position.

Yes, agreed. The fundamentals of this economy are NOT sound right now, contrary to some pundits. We have about 20 states in very serious distress, including some big ones like California, Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and NY. We have growing unemployment and a falling GDP. We have broadly low consumer and investor confidence. We have failing financial institutions and one of our largest manufacturers, GM, may file for Chapter 11 soon. Against this backdrop, the building of a few homes in a few strong markets is nothing.

The good news is we are still Americans. That's also the bad news.

-Robert

So there must a bunch of pundits out there and some of them you agree with and some yo don't so you announce your opinion and I'm supposed to listen. What if my taste in pundits is different. Can I then say there are a bunch of pundits out there that agree with Chess but they are wrong?

If the crisis was housing driven and prices have fallen and still there's money to be made in new housing starts according to people who are building there there should be a floor to measure toxic debt and get it off the books, no?

Moonbeam, no one hopes you are right more than me. I am supporting an out of work brother and have been for three months now! But, I'm also very pissed off that Bush and company let all of this happen on their watch. And, I'm losing patience with Obama faster than a snowball melts in HELL.

Who knows which pundits to believe? Pick your poison, mate! But, the burden on those proclaiming some sort of end to this recession is very heavy, indeed. Admittedly, rising housing starts is a good sign. You are an optimist, I suspect, but I'm a realist (yes, MY reality)

-Robert

 

[theeedude]

When they count multifamily units, does a building count as a unit, or each condo/apt counts as a unit?

 

[theeedude]

Reading this here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...bzZrsUa2fUE&refer=home

Looks like a headfake to me:

Work began on 583,000 homes at an annual rate, a 22 percent rise from January, the Commerce Department said in Washington today. The jump was influenced by warmer weather and an 82 percent surge in starts on condominiums, apartments and townhouses that?s unlikely to be sustained, analysts said.

While the glut of unsold properties on the market means the housing industry?s recession will probably continue for some time, economists said today?s report indicates the worst of the contraction may have passed. Retail sales figures for February last week also indicated a slower rate of decline.

Regional Gain

The increase in starts was led by an 89 percent surge in the Northeast.

Seems like a lot of starts were delayed due to weather then started all of the sudden causing a spike.