Italian scientists get sentenced 6 years for failing to predict earthquake???

[Oyeve]

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20121022/DA22ORU00.html


WTF? Manslaughter?

 

[randomrogue]

This is probably a case of someone dumb at the AP running with an article from the Onion or something similar.

 

[zsdersw]

They should be glad they aren't wearing concrete shoes or going on a one-way boat trip.

 

[Brovane]

This is probably a case of someone dumb at the AP running with an article from the Onion or something similar.

I wish it was.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busin...quake-courtbre89l13v-20121022,0,6778875.story

Alberto Sisto

Reuters

1:36 p.m. CDT, October 22, 2012

L'AQUILA, Italy (Reuters) - Six scientists and a government official were sentenced to six years in prison for manslaughter by an Italian court on Monday for failing to give adequate warning of an earthquake that killed more than 300 people in L'Aquila in 2009.

The seven, all members of a body called the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks, were accused of negligence and malpractice in evaluating the danger and keeping the central city informed of the risks.

The case has drawn condemnation from international bodies including the American Geophysical Union, which said the risk of litigation may deter scientists from advising governments or even working in seismology and seismic risk assessments.

"The issue here is about miscommunication of science, and we should not be putting responsible scientists who gave measured, scientifically accurate information in prison," Richard Walters of Oxford University's Department of Earth Sciences said.

"This sets a very dangerous precedent and I fear it will discourage other scientists from offering their advice on natural hazards and trying to help society in this way."

The scientists, Franco Barberi, Enzo Boschi, Giulio Selvaggi, Gian Michele Calvi, Claudio Eva and Mauro Dolce as well as Bernardo De Bernardis - a senior official in the Civil Protection Authority - were convicted of criminal manslaughter and causing criminal injury.

The 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck L'Aquila, in the Abruzzo region, at 3:32 a.m. on April 6, wrecking tens of thousands of buildings, injuring more than 1,000 people and killing 308.

At the heart of the case was the question of whether the government-appointed experts gave an overly reassuring picture of the risk facing the town, which contained many ancient and fragile buildings and which had already been partially destroyed three times by earthquakes over the centuries.

The case focused in particular on a series of low-level tremors that hit the region in the months preceding the earthquake and which prosecutors said should have warned experts not to underestimate the risk of a major shock.

Eva's lawyer Alfredo Biondi said the decision was "wrong in both fact and law" but the verdict, delivered in a tiny improvised court room in an industrial zone outside the still-wrecked city center, was welcomed by relatives of the victims.

"This is not thirst for revenge, it is just that our sister is not coming back," said Claudia Carosi.

More than three years later, much of the once-beautiful medieval city is still in ruins and thousands of people have been unable to return to their homes.

Defense lawyers said earthquakes could not be predicted and even if they could, nothing could be done to prevent them.

"If an event cannot be foreseen and, more to the point, cannot be avoided, it is hard to understand how there can be any suggestion of a failure to predict the risk," defense lawyer Franco Coppi said before the verdict was delivered.

"INCOMPLETE, IMPRECISE"

Prosecutors, who had only sought a four-year sentence, said they did not expect scientists to provide a precise forecast.

But they argued the Commission had given "incomplete, imprecise and contradictory" information on the danger after a meeting on March 31, 2009, a few days before the earthquake.

The case is part of a wider controversy over the disaster in L'Aquila, which has been at the center of a series of bitter rows over Italy's disaster preparedness.

Central Italy is continuously shaken by low level tremors, very few of which precede bigger earthquakes and they are generally marked by no more than a brief statement from civil protection authorities.

Key to the dispute is the kind of cautious language, hedged by caveats and reserves which scientists typically use in predicting highly uncertain events, but which can be of limited use as a guideline for the general public.

According to scientific opinion cited by prosecutors, the dozens of lower level tremors seen before the quake were typical of the kind of preliminary seismic activity seen before major earthquakes such as the one that struck on April 6.

Instead of highlighting the danger, they said the experts had made statements playing down the threat of a repeat of the earthquakes which wrecked the town in 1349, 1461 and 1703, saying the smaller shocks were a "normal geological phenomenon".

Italy is among the most earthquake-prone countries in Europe and has been struck repeatedly by lethal shocks, most recently in May 2012, when 16 people were killed and hundreds injured by a 5.8 tremor in the Emilia Romagna region.

(Additional reporting by Cristiano Corvino and Kate Kelland in London, writing by James Mackenzie; Editing by Alison Williams)


Copyright © 2012, Reuters

 

[moonbogg]

Can't be real. That kind of mindless judgement only happens in Muslim countries.

 

[monovillage]

Dr. Judith Curry had an article on it about a year ago.
http://judithcurry.com/2011/10/01/liability-of-scientists/

Here's the link to the Pratt article for Stanford.
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2011/september/systematic-earthquake-forecast-093011.html

A bad case of government scapegoating someone just to show they're "doing something" about a tragedy.

 

[Screech]

I just saw this as well. Seriously WTF. I can understand people are grieving but this is ridiculous.

 

[moonbogg]

Dr. Judith Curry had an article on it about a year ago.
http://judithcurry.com/2011/10/01/liability-of-scientists/

Here's the link to the Pratt article for Stanford.
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2011/september/systematic-earthquake-forecast-093011.html

A bad case of government scapegoating someone just to show they're "doing something" about a tragedy.

I understand that, but is the population that stupid? The judgement has to be believed as legit in order to carry any weight.

 

[Nintendesert]

This is what happens when the general populace is too stupid to understand anything about science other than it being some sort of magic able to do wondrous and magical things without fail.

People are starting to believe science is absolute fact and don't understand just how much is unknown and uncertain at any given time and it is, by real scientists, an ongoing endeavor of learning about the world we live.

I feel sorry for any scientist in Italy now.

 

[cybrsage]

This bodes ill for weathermen in Italy...rains on your wedding day, send the weatherman to jail!

 

[Tango]

It's a very misleading way to report the news: they have not been condamned because they failed to predict an earthquake, they have been condamned because they attempted to predict the absence of one.

Very different. One of them actually wrote on national media that it was unlikely that a large earthquake could hit the area in the next few days

 

[monovillage]

I understand that, but is the population that stupid? The judgement has to be believed as legit in order to carry any weight.

The people and the prosecutors (I certainly don't agree with them) felt that the government scientists had lied and misinformed the people about how positive their findings were. Since the people believed in the shaky science they went back into dangerous and/or unstable buildings that collapsed at the next seismic episode.

Again, I don't agree with them, but that sounds like what happened.

 

[moonbogg]

It's a very misleading way to report the news: they have not been condamned because they failed to predict an earthquake, they have been condamned because they attempted to predict the absence of one.

Very different. One of them actually wrote on national media that it was unlikely that a large earthquake could hit the area in the next few days

Hmm, that is a bit different, but he was still doing his best and not intentionally misleading the public. This is why scientists are always so amazingly careful about declaring anything and they almost never speak with absolute certainty about anything other than knowing their own name. What a shame to bring down punishment on them like this.

 

[PokerGuy]

That has to be one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen. Absolutely insane. If I were someone involved with any kind of science in Italy I'd like asap, they've gone mad.

 

[StinkyPinky]

Yeah I almost fell out of my chair when I read this

However it is not quite as bad as I thought. They aren't actually likely to go to jail as they have the right to appeal and apparently the odds are good for them to win.

 

[spacejamz]

nvermind...

 

[Tango]

Hmm, that is a bit different, but he was still doing his best and not intentionally misleading the public. This is why scientists are always so amazingly careful about declaring anything and they almost never speak with absolute certainty about anything other than knowing their own name. What a shame to bring down punishment on them like this.

In this case he definitely failed to be careful when expressing his opinion on the subject. The point is not trying your best. The point is that if you have no way whatsoever to know something you should not say that you do have a probabilistic knowledge of the phenomenon, which is implied by saying the odds of it happening are very low. He had no reason to make people think he knew another earthquake was unlikely in the next few days.

 

[Vic Vega]

It's more than failing to predict as I understand it, it's that they made statements concerning public safety that they arguably did not have the data to support. I could be wrong here as I only briefly read this story.

 

[xBiffx]

This case appears to be built on shaky ground. The verdict is still very shocking. I am guessing there is going to be waves of support for them though and the verdict with be overturned. I honestly can't see how they could be found at fault.

:sneaky:

 

[Nemesis 1]

Yep every expert in every field shouls be subject to prison if they are not doing job according to teachings . Walll street would be a better place . Home lones wouldn't have destroyed the economygiving $200,000 loans to bad credit risk customers . THe people appling for such loan and signing should also see jailtime

 

[Tango]

It's more than failing to predict as I understand it, it's that they made statements concerning public safety that they arguably did not have the data to support. I could be wrong here as I only briefly read this story.

Correct. I can read the reporting in Italian and (I must say as it's often the case with all-things-Italy) the ways the news is presented in the international media is very, very misleading.

 

[Nemesis 1]

This case appears to be built on shaky ground. The verdict is still very shocking. I am guessing there is going to be waves of support for them though and the verdict with be overturned. I honestly can't see how they could be found at fault.

:sneaky:

These authorities make a good living at voodoo science, When they see a small swarm its reasonable to expect a bigger quake . They failed to warn . lives were lost ,its that simple . This is justice true justice .. Every so called expert should be held to their words for misleading others. That will solve 10% of world problems

 

[Infohawk]

This does seem crazy and hopefully there is room for review at the appellate level. The only way I could see a scientist being culpable is if they lied about their findings and that lie was relied upon by the public. If they honestly thought the chance of an earthquake was low, I don't see how they can be condemned.

 

[sigurros81]

In other news, mass panic has broken out in the psychic/fortune telling community.

 

[PokerGuy]

This case appears to be built on shaky ground. The verdict is still very shocking. I am guessing there is going to be waves of support for them though and the verdict with be overturned. I honestly can't see how they could be found at fault.

:sneaky:

Well played!