It seems likely that one day technology will replace most jobs

[Phokus]

Technology is one aspect of society that doesn't get discussed enough when it comes to job loss. I remember when our company invested in SAP to replace all of our legacy systems, a lot of people lost their jobs.

 

[matt0611]

It will never be quite that simple. Someone, somewhere will indeed be required to do things. They will need some sort of Reward for their Labour. I suppose Wealth isn't the only Reward, Fame or Fascination(One's love of something) can also be a reward. A Society where Wealth has no meaning or purpose is difficult to comprehend, certainly is something that would need time to evolve.

I know, its just an extreme example to make a point. We work because we want the stuff that we make (most of the time), not simply to have a job.

 

[Moonbeam]

It's going to be a real hell for all the assholes who think they are somebody because they studied hard, work hard, and got lucky and have good jobs. The robots will laugh their asses off at them.

Honey I got bad news. I got fired cause I needed 6 minutes to take a shit. We're going to have to put the kids in cryogenic storage.

 

[sandorski]

It's going to be a real hell for all the assholes who think they are somebody because they studied hard, work hard, and got lucky and have good jobs. The robots will laugh their asses off at them.

Honey I got bad news. I got fired cause I needed 6 minutes to take a shit. We're going to have to put the kids in cryogenic storage.

:biggrin:

 

[Elias824]

Robots can do regular tasks but will not be able to envision or innovate.

So, basically, we would all have jobs. They'd be intellectual jobs involving research, discovery, advancement, art, music etc.

Just like fewer and fewer humans farm and till the lands today, fewer and fewer humans will be doing accounting and surgery in the future.

This

Jobs will move as they have been moving away from farming, manufacturing, and basically anything that's easy to automate. However you still need people to setup, design, the robots, what their doing, what they are making. Robots are also pretty terrible at relating to people, or art and music as posted. More and more jobs are going to be available in the high tech fields, the days of getting your high school diploma and having a job waiting for you are over.
The problem with this society is that it will be very difficult to educated such a large chunk of the population to be viable in high tech fields, we can already see this with the way tuition costs are rising. The people who are unable or unwilling to learn to do these things will be in a pretty rough spot, few and fewer jobs they will be qualified for and more people to compete with.

 

[Craig234]

A lot of these issues are not intuitive. It's natural to think 'more automation, we'll find people better off'.

A good example of the other possible effects, though, can be seen in corn farming.

The US has become extremely efficient with high-tech Big Agra farming.

I'm raising one effect, involving Mexico, out of many from subsidies to the businesses, to pressure on presidential candidates in Iowa primaries to support Ethanol, to High Fructose corn syrup being used in almost any American food product - such as virtually all of our sodas for decades while the rest of the world has sugar.

But here's the effect - take dirt-poor farmers in Mexico barely getting by growing corn for their own country.

The US agri-business has *undercut the pricing*, under NAFTA, of these farmers, and taken over 2/3 of corn sales for *all corn tortillas sold in Mexico*, I heard tonight.

This has apparently greatly worsened a lot of poverty for these poor Mexican farmers, who now have no income (hello, marijuana).

It wasn't supposed to exacerbate poverty among the Mexican people this way, and the ideological lines are idiotic (they should all train for green energy employment!)

It does result in our getting some 'cheap food' - put aside the corporate industry's very powerful influence to get blind eyes turned if there are health concerns for the consumers, their power to get all kinds of government policies decided favorably for them that might not be in the public interest, another 'interest' that's massive and can now anonymously donate vast sums to defeat any politician in the nation who tries to challenge their interests in favor of the public.

That's a bit different than simply 'progress in farming technology has helped everyone in the world have an abundant food supply'.

It's not that is doesn't have some great benefits, but they're not nearly as beneficial for everyone as they could be and instead are somewhat corrupted.

 

[1prophet]

This

Jobs will move as they have been moving away from farming, manufacturing, and basically anything that's easy to automate. However you still need people to setup, design, the robots, what their doing, what they are making. Robots are also pretty terrible at relating to people, or art and music as posted. More and more jobs are going to be available in the high tech fields, the days of getting your high school diploma and having a job waiting for you are over.
The problem with this society is that it will be very difficult to educated such a large chunk of the population to be viable in high tech fields, we can already see this with the way tuition costs are rising. The people who are unable or unwilling to learn to do these things will be in a pretty rough spot, few and fewer jobs they will be qualified for and more people to compete with.

And someone from China or India with the same or more education will do it for less.

 

[dawp]

This

Jobs will move as they have been moving away from farming, manufacturing, and basically anything that's easy to automate. However you still need people to setup, design, the robots, what their doing, what they are making. Robots are also pretty terrible at relating to people, or art and music as posted. More and more jobs are going to be available in the high tech fields, the days of getting your high school diploma and having a job waiting for you are over.
The problem with this society is that it will be very difficult to educated such a large chunk of the population to be viable in high tech fields, we can already see this with the way tuition costs are rising. The people who are unable or unwilling to learn to do these things will be in a pretty rough spot, few and fewer jobs they will be qualified for and more people to compete with.

eventually, machines will get so advanced that humans will not be needed to do anything. I suspect that when that time comes, society as we know will collapse and will reform into something completely alien to us.

or the machines will rise up and wipe us out, a la terminator :awe:

or they will adopt us as pets.

 

[bamacre]

Technology and automation are not our enemies. In my line of work, they have increased employment, and at the same time offered our clients a much better product and service and at a lower cost.

You have to look at the bigger picture. Technology and automation, in the long run, do not destroy jobs. They will move them around, certainly. Look at the automobile. Technology made them cheaper, so more people could afford them, which resulted in more people employed producing them. And because they are cheaper, consumers have more money in their pocket to buy other goods and services they otherwise would not have been able to afford, causing an increase in employment in those areas where that extra money flows.

Technology and automation make our lives easier and more enjoyable, and in some cases, safer and healthier. And isn't that the goal of an economy?

 

[bamacre]

eventually, machines will get so advanced that humans will not be needed to do anything.

Wouldn't that be such a horrible thing? Imagine a machine that could produce everything we need and everything we want. We'd all be playing games, goofing off, reading books, enjoying life. Yeah, I'd much rather have a job.

 

[dawp]

Wouldn't that be such a horrible thing? Imagine a machine that could produce everything we need and everything we want. We'd all be playing games, goofing off, reading books, enjoying life. Yeah, I'd much rather have a job.

like i said (that you didn't quote) society as we know it will collapse and what will take it's place will be very different. I did not say it would be bad, just different.

 

[dmcowen674]

At that point what happens? Service industries only go so far to provide jobs and when the costs of people earning a living wage is significantly more than robotics only those who own or maintain them will be ok. After that humanity becomes redundant.

What then?

Many of the smug Republicans on here that really don't have a ton of money become Soylent Green. :thumbsup:

 

[potluv]

The next step in human evolution is when our own technology replaces us. Hello Matrix

 

[Craig234]

Wouldn't that be such a horrible thing? Imagine a machine that could produce everything we need and everything we want. We'd all be playing games, goofing off, reading books, enjoying life.

This incredible naivete is consistent with being a Libertarian.

In that brave new world, think of yourself as a Native American in the 'new world'.

You can celebrate like the native who excitedly welcomed Columbus and his new steel technology to help them.

 

[halik]

At that point what happens? Service industries only go so far to provide jobs and when the costs of people earning a living wage is significantly more than robotics only those who own or maintain them will be ok. After that humanity becomes redundant.

What then?

Replicators a la star trek? Anything can be built and had for nothing.
Then humanity can focus on advancing itself in every way in pure thought-stuff, rather than chasing money and physical goods.

As corny as that show might be, the one episode where they find a guy that invented the propulsion system had an interesting philosophical point. If everyone has everything, what will you do with your life?

 

[bamacre]

This incredible naivete is consistent with being a Libertarian.

In that brave new world, think of yourself as a Native American in the 'new world'.

You can celebrate like the native who excitedly welcomed Columbus and his new steel technology to help them.

Craig, your comedic posts bring such enjoyment to P&N. :biggrin:

 

[Moonbeam]

Craig, your comedic posts bring such enjoyment to P&N. :biggrin:

Yeah, well you are just going to love Nanny Robot.

 

[bamacre]

Yeah, well you are just going to love Nanny Robot.

Is that what you're typing on now?

 

[Jeff7]

Robots can do regular tasks but will not be able to envision or innovate.

Not for awhile anyway.

I have little doubt that in time, robots, or androids rather, will be able to out-think us. Someone will have some revelation on how to build an adaptable AI system, and couple that with a computing technology that can be made reasonably compact, and you're on the way to having a smart android.

Besides, what do parents generally hope for? They hope that their kids will be smarter than they are, and that they'll be better off.
Why not ask the same of our artificial offspring?

When Machines do all the Labour, the only Labour for Humanity will be Survival against the cold calculated dominion of the Machine Overlords.

Exactly. The free market always finds a solution.

Replicators a la star trek? Anything can be built and had for nothing.
Then humanity can focus on advancing itself in every way in pure thought-stuff, rather than chasing money and physical goods.

As corny as that show might be, the one episode where they find a guy that invented the propulsion system had an interesting philosophical point. If everyone has everything, what will you do with your life?

Along those lines, something at Cracked.com said that the holodeck would destroy humanity. Why would anyone want to live in the real world, when you could have a very-nearly-real world which would obey your slightest whims in an instant? Your only interaction with the real world would be to do only what was necessary to secure more time in your holodeck.

 

[alphatarget1]

Wall-e on the Axiom...

 

[Rainsford]

This has never been how technology has worked, and I don't see any evidence that our current level of technological progress is any different. Yes, automation and technology will put SPECIFIC people out of work as manually doing the job becomes pointless (or the job goes away completely), but technology opens up new jobs both directly and indirectly. Direct job creation comes from working with the new technology, and indirect job creation (by far the larger factor) comes from freeing up large segments of the population to work on other things.

As an example, farming automation put many farmers out of business. But it also created a huge industry dedicated to producing automated farming implements. Beyond that, farming automation enabled a MASSIVE number of new jobs as the majority of the population no longer had to farm to avoid starvation. This is just one example, but I'm not sure there is technology that DOESN'T work in a similar way.

The idea that technology will replace all work seems to be based on the idea that there is a finite amount of work to be done, and once that's accounted for, everyone else has nothing more to do. But that's not how it works at all. As technology comes along, the output of the workforce goes up dramatically, and I see no reason this would stop.

 

[piasabird]

What about the entertainment industry? Maybe we will still have dancing with the stars?

 

[epidemis]

http://www.thelightsinthetunnel.com/cgi-bin/getdownload.cgi


Read this book and weep.

 

[IronWing]

Technology already has replaced most traditional human employment. Most people throughout history have farmed. Technology has cut that to ~5% of the population in developed countries. Mining employment has likewise dropped to 2-3% of what it was in the early 20th century yet production is much higher. In coal mining, a long wall miner can be run by 5-10 humans and does the work that used to be done by hundreds. In the giant open pits, robotic trucks are starting to replace human truck drivers. Wagoners have been replaced by trains and tractor trailers hauling hundreds or thousands of times more freight. On the waterfront, stevedores have been replaced by container handlers, greatly reducing labor demand.

 

[werepossum]

Craig, your comedic posts bring such enjoyment to P&N. :biggrin:

Indeed. The very concept of expressing Luddite views over the Internet is droll enough to make me laugh out loud. Technology brings wealth; my own fear is not the technology nor the unemployment it brings - Ironwing and Rainsford answered that concern nicely, should any need it. My concern is how to avoid virtual enslavement from people empowered by the technology. That's no different than the struggle from the first day a caveman picked up a pointy stick; indeed, no different from the first caveman tough enough to rule the hearth absolutely. The threat to freedom isn't technology per se, it's the human condition.