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IT Jobs possibly down 40% by 2010?
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Absolutely my green-thumb-having brother! 😀 Most of my work in the past 4 years has been in this sector in fact. Actually developed a Kanban platform for one of the larger tire manufacturers to regulate inventory of tire components based on customer demand (historical and current). It talked to all of the PLCs on the floor to see what the current capacity was to know when to order components, etc.
IMO, manufacturing is the sector to be in, both business and technical. There's such tremendous opportunity in every environment, and they require a vision beyond the strictly technical. It has the added bonus of being a lot of fun as well.
Yeah, there will still be the neccessity for someone that we can jam in a cubicle and say "WRITE CODE!" and they'll do it. But we won't need as many of them, because we're getting better at making less of that work (by getting the specs right in the first place, among other things)
I'm going to try keep this post short, but this is a topic very close to my mind. I've fought with this concept my entire career both as an employee and consultant.
What separates you from another developer? Does anyone outside of technical circles know or actually care? When I first started all I wanted was to be the best (whatever that means), and in a sense of naivete I thought this actually mattered. It still does, but just not to the right people, in my opinion. There are exceptions to everything, and companies like Microsoft actually care about your level of talent; however, outside of those circles you are gauged on a very simple metric: Can you deliver the business value as required? The business value is whether or not you satisfy whatever requirements have been given, and as any developer knows there are dozens of different ways to measure such success (or failure).
The problem is this. The developer next to you could have no more talent in development than Britney Spears does singing, but until your added talent at the technical level can translate into added value at the business level it doesn't even matter (again, there are exceptions).
The whole point is that those of us that actually care about our work concentrate on delivering better technical solutions, and it's this myopia that leads many talented developers into obsolescence. Some of the most talented developers I know are without jobs, but it's because they spent the last 5 years doing embedded work in C or C++. It seems it's a paradox: To win in this business you can't concentrate the most on that which you actually do.
Or you can go work for Microsoft, Google, and similar companies where they recognize technical ability; otherwise, you're left in the world dominated by capricious business practices where the metric knows nothing of bits and everything of dollars.
My $0.02.
LOL, that's a great way of summarizing it 🙂
As developers we all get a lot of satisfaction from actually seeing something we labored over for weeks/months/years reach fruition, but there is a lot to be said about seeing machines rather than pixels. It makes me wish I was in robotics...
I think one of the big problems is this: Say Joe Schmoe is laid off because management wants someone who's skilled in x software or hardware. Joe Schmoe recognizes the need to update his skillset, takes some classes, but finds himself shut out because companies want actual work experience, not just knowledge on the subject. All of a sudden he finds himself locked out of the field he may have been working in for 10-15 years unless he finds the holy grail (or starting over at an entry level position if lucky).
I think this is only true for those that specialize in the company rather than themselves.
I used to work for MCI WorldCom (*shudder*), and when they asked me to learn a collection of esoteric languages, platforms, etc. I turned in my resignation. Point? I would have been an MCI WorldCom specialist, and I would have trained myself out of my industry.
This industry requires constant learning. That's what we all assumed when we joined it whether we like it or not. Constantly diversify your knowledge portfolio independent of the company you are currently with and you'll find yourself always employable; to use a cliche, the only job security you have is the ability to get another job.
This article is a misrepresentation of what was actually in the Gartner paper. I have the PDF open right now and nowhere does it say "IT to shrink by 40%". The only thing close was "? By 2010, six of 10 people affiliated with the IT organization will assume business-facing (vs. IT-contained) roles."
Which confirms where the industry is headed. IT will be transformed into business people who dabble in IT and understand the technology/concepts. It's becoming (as predicted) a truly strategic role for the business. And you can't be strategic without being deeply ingrained in the actual business of running the business.
Excellent quote from the article..
"Make no mistake: If you are an IT specialist who ignores or downplays the demand to develop business-oriented competence, you are at risk of being unemployable within the next five years," said Diane Morello, a vice president of research at Gartner.
And I do like how they bastardized the gartner article.
Yup - it's an emphasis on how the specialized pure developer is no longer the employment model. The superior power developers will still have a role, but the "average socially disinclined grump who only knows one technology and ignores the business" is going to become a dinosaur.
Engineer
Elite Member
I can tell you, it's a beautiful thing. I design the entire cell (not huge by automation standards, but big enough), program the PLC's, screens, and robots (including handshaking, safety, etc). Watching them come together (not crash either! 😛) is a beautiful thing indeed. Poetry in motion! 🙂
dmcowen674
No Lifer
Not if you live in India.
zephyrprime
Diamond Member
IT jobs are expanding rapidly....just not in the US.
ultimatebob
Lifer
Not if you're in the US, and working in IT....
imported_goku
Diamond Member
Nope, wouldn't be surprised if they didn't have flying cars for the next 50 years...
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