It is possible that Democrats will gain, not lose in November. Here's why/how.

[Zorba]

Wishful thinking!

When gas is over $6-7 a gallon.. and that leads to everything being expensive.. do you think people care more about abortion?

It's the economy stupid!

When it becomes illegal for their wives and mistresses from getting birth control, yes I think that'll trump gas prices.

 

[woolfe9998]

Haven't read the rest of the thread, but did read the article. The dems are going to lose seats in November. I don't think there's any question about it. The only question is how many. In that regard, the article has a point. This could hurt the GOP in November. However, it's impossible to say by how much.

 

[imported_tajmahal]

Haven't read the rest of the thread, but did read the article. The dems are going to lose seats in November. I don't think there's any question about it. The only question is how many. In that regard, the article has a point. This could hurt the GOP in November. However, it's impossible to say by how much.

My bet is the GOP will win over 30 House seats and 3 Senate seats. It's going to be an interesting election.

 

[woolfe9998]

My bet is the GOP will win over 30 House seats and 3 Senate seats. It's going to be an interesting election.

I think that's a middling prediction. If we're in recession by then, it could be an epic 50 seat wipeout. Or it could be as little as 10-15, if no recession and if other things go well for the dems. Unlikely though.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

In other words, America will not be a better place any time soon.

 

[dank69]

Correct. Its Trumps fault.

I'm sure you can find tons of posts in this liberal echo chamber of people blaming Trump for gas prices.

Hey, do you remember that time you got scammed by a Dinesh D'Souza video that was such bullshit that even Fox News wanted nothing to do with it? Good times, Mr. Not-A-Conservative. Good times.

 

[Pens1566]

I'm sure you can find tons of posts in this liberal echo chamber of people blaming Trump for gas prices.

Hey, do you remember that time you got scammed by a Dinesh D'Souza video that was such bullshit that even Fox News wanted nothing to do with it? Good times, Mr. Not-A-Conservative. Good times.

To be fair, one of those times was when he was openly, by all appearances, trying to start a shooting war with Iran by publicly assassinating members of their armed forces. In that case, the rise was at least partly his fault.

 

[dank69]

To be fair, one of those times was when he was openly, by all appearances, trying to start a shooting war with Iran by publicly assassinating members of their armed forces. In that case, the rise was at least partly his fault.

Perhaps, but dipshit is clearly talking about the current prices IMO.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Correct. Its Trumps fault.

not really trump's fault either. this would have happened regardless of who is, and was, sitting in the POTUS seat. and arguably no matter how good the US response to covid had been, the massive global supply chain disruption would also have happened, which means we'd be in this position whether it were hillary over trump followed by biden, or trump followed by more trump.

 

[blackangst1]

not really trump's fault either. this would have happened regardless of who is, and was, sitting in the POTUS seat. and arguably no matter how good the US response to covid had been, the massive global supply chain disruption would also have happened, which means we'd be in this position whether it were hillary over trump followed by biden, or trump followed by more trump.

Guess I forgot my /s tag.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Trump’s favor among independents continues to crater, as does Biden’s, but the Democrat generic ballot lead has surged recently.

“

• The 41st Morning Consult/Politico tracking survey conducted since September 2021 found congressional Democrats with their biggest advantage over Republicans — 37% to 26% — on the congressional generic ballot yet. On average in July, Democrats held a lead of 8 percentage points over the GOP on the question, up from a 1-point deficit in June and a 3-point advantage in May.
• At the same time, independent voters have soured on Trump in recent weeks: The latest survey found 29% of independents hold favorable views of the former president, matching his standing in a survey conducted the weekend after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and down from 38% at the end of May.
• Democrats’ gains on the generic ballot among independents are out of step with sentiment about Biden, whose numbers continue to crater: Since May, Biden’s favorability rating has dropped among independents, and his job approval rating with unaffiliated voters (27%) is worse than it has ever been in 66 surveys conducted since he took office.
• That disconnect suggests independent voters may view November’s contests as less of a referendum and more of a choice between two parties. That would benefit Democrats, provided they can define their races on those favorable terms.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552307190203031552

 

[fskimospy]

Trump’s favor among independents continues to crater, as does Biden’s, but the Democrat generic ballot lead has surged recently.

“

• The 41st Morning Consult/Politico tracking survey conducted since September 2021 found congressional Democrats with their biggest advantage over Republicans — 37% to 26% — on the congressional generic ballot yet. On average in July, Democrats held a lead of 8 percentage points over the GOP on the question, up from a 1-point deficit in June and a 3-point advantage in May.
• At the same time, independent voters have soured on Trump in recent weeks: The latest survey found 29% of independents hold favorable views of the former president, matching his standing in a survey conducted the weekend after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and down from 38% at the end of May.
• Democrats’ gains on the generic ballot among independents are out of step with sentiment about Biden, whose numbers continue to crater: Since May, Biden’s favorability rating has dropped among independents, and his job approval rating with unaffiliated voters (27%) is worse than it has ever been in 66 surveys conducted since he took office.
• That disconnect suggests independent voters may view November’s contests as less of a referendum and more of a choice between two parties. That would benefit Democrats, provided they can define their races on those favorable terms.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552307190203031552

Would need to see a bunch of additional polls to confirm this isn't an outlier (as I unfortunately suspect it is). If it isn't though, this is consistent with Democrats keeping full control of the government which would be humiliating turnaround for Republicans, all thanks to a rogue Supreme Court.

 

[Lezunto]

Democrats might be able to keep the damage to a minimum as long as many on the Progressive side begin viewing the country as it truly is and not fantasizing about the way they wish it to be.

Change is slow.

But unless there is heavenly or alien intervention we Dems are gonna get clobbered. DeSantis, Abbott, et al, are going to keep battering the Left with horror tales of CRT and few have come up with an able and successful retort yet.

We're just bad when it comes to Messaging.

 

[fskimospy]

Democrats might be able to keep the damage to a minimum as long as many on the Progressive side begin viewing the country as it truly is and not fantasizing about the way they wish it to be.

Change is slow.

What is your basis for thinking that the complaints of the electorate are based around progressives? This seems to be projecting your own views onto them. They seem to care about inflation primarily, not what randos on twitter are saying.

But unless there is heavenly or alien intervention we Dems are gonna get clobbered. DeSantis, Abbott, et al, are going to keep battering the Left with horror tales of CRT and few have come up with an able and successful retort yet.

We're just bad when it comes to Messaging.

Well 538 has Democrats as slight favorites to win the Senate. It would be unlikely for them to keep the House though, yes, although that's mostly due to gerrymandering. It's very possible Democrats will win the most votes for both the House and Senate this November and get 'clobbered' because the game is tilted against them.

It's not really about messaging, it's that one side needs to win by 5+ points to get a majority and the other side gets a majority so long as they lose by 4 or less.

 

[Lezunto]

Gee, I dunno. Maybe, "Defund the Police."

If Progressives actually vote WITH my fellow Democrats, hey, we might have a shot.

We need another Voting Rights Bill. We get that, then we can increase our voter turnout and then wield the power to do what's needed. We're not going to get it immediately. It is a process.

 

[fskimospy]

Gee, I dunno. Maybe, "Defund the Police."

If Progressives actually vote WITH my fellow Democrats, hey, we might have a shot.

We need another Voting Rights Bill. We get that, then we can increase our voter turnout and then wield the power to do what's needed. We're not going to get it immediately. It is a process.

I see no evidence of this in issue polls. What's your basis for it?

 

[Lezunto]

What I said is simply logical. You increase your voter pool, you can increase your vote power.

Pollsters do not stroll into Black Barbershops, Black Hair Salons, recording studios or Black neighborhood stores. During the 2012 election, I was kind of worried about Obama losing because of what the polls in my area of Virginia were revealing.

But my son cautioned that pollsters do not call many people who have just a cell phone number and that the polls I was seeing were mistaken. He was right.

The only reason pollsters and Democratic Party activists contacted me a lot is because I have volunteered to drive local residents to polling places. So local Dem Party activists had my number and email address.

So, I'll just stick with logic.

 

[fskimospy]

What I said is simply logical. You increase your voter pool, you can increase your vote power.

Pollsters do not stroll into Black Barbershops, Black Hair Salons, recording studios or Black neighborhood stores. During the 2012 election, I was kind of worried about Obama losing because of what the polls in my area of Virginia were revealing.

This seems to show a fundamental lack of understanding of how public polling works.

But my son cautioned that pollsters do not call many people who have just a cell phone number and that the polls I was seeing were mistaken. He was right.

The only reason pollsters and Democratic Party activists contacted me a lot is because I have volunteered to drive local residents to polling places. So local Dem Party activists had my number and email address.

So, I'll just stick with logic.

Pollsters most definitely call cell phones and they call lots of them.

 

[Lezunto]

Maybe now. They did not in my neck of the woods in 2012. Have a good day.

 

[fskimospy]

Maybe now. They did not in my neck of the woods in 2012. Have a good day.

Well hopefully our polls are not being conducted by 2012 pollsters who have been catapulted forward in time.

 

[Lezunto]

fskimopsy,

I don't think you have a basic understanding of how Blacks really feel. So, stop pretending to be an expert. You will never win without the Black vote. Remember that.

 

[fskimospy]

fskimopsy,

I don't think you have a basic understanding of how Blacks really feel. So, stop pretending to be an expert. You will never win without the Black vote. Remember that.

This is the equivalent of diner journalism.

You seem to think that modern polling is ineffective at measuring public opinion. If so, what do you propose instead?

 

[Lezunto]

fskimospy,

If you say so.

 

[K1052]

I dunno exactly what's going to happen in November but I have to marvel at some of the absolutely shitty candidates the Republicans have managed to obtain in key Senate races.

Today's entry: Dr. Oz

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552781764006903808

 

[Pens1566]

I dunno exactly what's going to happen in November but I have to marvel at some of the absolutely shitty candidates the Republicans have managed to obtain in key Senate races.

Today's entry: Dr. Oz

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552781764006903808

I really think that Herschel Walker could be the worst senate candidate ever in a general election. Dude has scrambled eggs for brains. And that he's as close as he is in the polls says something really awful about where our country is.