Although the MRF isn't exactly the only model used to forecast for hurricanes I will use it as an example. According to the latest run the Isidore(either in cat. 4 or 5 strength) would impact New Orleans and then sweep along the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This would impact Mobile and Biloxi/Gulfport with extreme damage and New Orleans might not exist anymore. New Orleans was built below sea level. It can't handle more than 5 inches of rain without flooding. According to the MRF's latest data if Isidore followed the solution the MRF lays out there would be 25-35 inches of rain impacting New Orleans.
The damage from the rain alone would be catastrophic. Add in cat 4-5 winds and sea surge and we are looking at a hurricane rivaling Camille's power and much much much more destructive than either Camille or Andrew. While the MRF and other models disagree, this forecast is something that has to be prepared for now. A large cat. 4-5 hurricane impacting the areas listed above would cause unimaginable damage. The loss of life if proper mandatory evacutation procedures aren't enforced could be overwhelming. Not all models are predicting this much of an extreme northern turn. Over the past few days more and more models are starting to pick up on a trough turning Isidore to the North. Over the past two days only one model had been predicting this and now 4 out of 6 are. This change in data and Isidore's strengthening could spell disaster.
Not to push any panic buttons but my guess is that New Orleans is long overdue for a massive hurricane. Turns out this one might just be it.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models/mrf/mrf_sfc_loop.html
http://www.hurricanealley.net/10Ltrpmdl.html
The damage from the rain alone would be catastrophic. Add in cat 4-5 winds and sea surge and we are looking at a hurricane rivaling Camille's power and much much much more destructive than either Camille or Andrew. While the MRF and other models disagree, this forecast is something that has to be prepared for now. A large cat. 4-5 hurricane impacting the areas listed above would cause unimaginable damage. The loss of life if proper mandatory evacutation procedures aren't enforced could be overwhelming. Not all models are predicting this much of an extreme northern turn. Over the past few days more and more models are starting to pick up on a trough turning Isidore to the North. Over the past two days only one model had been predicting this and now 4 out of 6 are. This change in data and Isidore's strengthening could spell disaster.
Not to push any panic buttons but my guess is that New Orleans is long overdue for a massive hurricane. Turns out this one might just be it.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models/mrf/mrf_sfc_loop.html
http://www.hurricanealley.net/10Ltrpmdl.html
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