Is this the official 2013 Fantasy Football thread?

[KeithTalent]

Boldin is a great real life WR. His fantasy value comes no where near his real life value. Unless you are in a 20 team league he is no more than a WR2.

This. I've owned him in one PPR league and he is super inconsistent at best as a starting fantasy WR.

KT

 

[Kev]

what the hell is the point of this post.

you're actually trying to validate his fantasy value by illustrating one catch? Are you fucking kidding me

Dude that catch was amazing. I'm taking Boldin first overall next year.

 

[slayer202]

Dude that catch was amazing. I'm taking Boldin first overall next year.

:biggrin:

 

[BudAshes]

I don't see anyone else providing in depth quantitative analysis in this thread, if I'm hitting on 80% predictions then you can say what you want. No, I don't play PPR and that was made clear. Nobody said anything about CJ vs Bolden either, keep reaching.

CJ = Calvin Johnson.

And no one is going to listen to anything you say unless you admit you are wrong. No one cares about quantitative analysis if it's done by an idiot. If you can't figure out that Anquan Boldin, who probably can't run a 5 second 40, isn't anywhere near Calvin Johnson(who has put up an all time great season as recently as last year) then why would anything else you say have merit.

 

[SP33Demon]

what the hell is the point of this post.

you're actually trying to validate his fantasy value by illustrating one catch? Are you fucking kidding me

It's pretty clear that he's in the least, a WR3 in FF and a viable #1/2 IRL due to his talent. Of course for fantasy, SF simply isn't passing to him enough deep, 59 targets just isn't going to get it done for a WR1. Yet, he's the 4th most efficient in the NFL when they do. Calvin wasn't even in the top 30 in efficiency through week 6, then last week he broke the top 15, and this week he's finally vaulted to #1 after his big performance. Anquan's always been in the top 20, and he's tied with Calvin for 9th in QB rating at 106. Like someone else said, RL value and FF value don't always mesh for studs and SF's utilization of Boldin is not ideal because they have too many weapons (best TE in the league not named Graham, best RB not named Peterson, top 3 defense that can score, Kaep's superlative speed) to take the lead and run the clock out. This is the pattern we have seen so far and why SF is basically playing their 2nd stringers by the 4th quarter.

Looking at the WR performance metrics for efficiency and rating, I'm looking to target a few receivers before the playoffs to try and get better:

WR Rating-
1 Jordy Nelson GB 52 39 649 7 1 148.2
2 Demaryius Thomas DEN 66 48 685 6 2 123.6
3 Dez Bryant DAL 76 45 641 8 1 116.2
4 Wes Welker DEN 72 50 555 9 3 114.3
5 DeSean Jackson PHI 71 45 673 5 1 112.0
6 Brandon Marshall CHI 65 46 540 5 2 108.5
7 Antonio Brown PIT 70 56 630 2 1 107.7
8 Eric Decker DEN 69 46 669 3 1 106.5
9 Calvin Johnson DET 77 47 821 7 4 106.0
9 Anquan Boldin SF 59 38 551 2 0 106.0
11 Denarius Moore OAK 45 27 431 4 2 103.1
12 Josh Gordon CLV 57 32 582 3 1 101.6
13 Julio Jones ATL 57 41 580 2 2 101.5
14 Victor Cruz NYG 74 47 677 4 2 99.9
15 Harry Douglas ATL 50 35 490 1 1 99.6

YPR-
1 Calvin Johnson DET 77 821 288 2.85
2 Julio Jones ATL 57 580 212 2.74
3 Justin Blackmon JAX 46 415 161 2.58
4 Anquan Boldin SF 59 551 219 2.52
5 A.J. Green CIN 80 734 296 2.48
6 Andre Johnson HST 69 584 249 2.35
7 Jordy Nelson GB 52 649 279 2.33
8 Josh Gordon CLV 57 582 256 2.27
9 DeSean Jackson PHI 71 673 299 2.25
10 Vincent Jackson TB 88 623 280 2.23
11 Alshon Jeffery CHI 55 561 254 2.21
11 Denarius Moore OAK 45 431 195 2.21
13 Antonio Brown PIT 70 630 287 2.20
14 Torrey Smith BLT 57 629 290 2.17
15 Eric Decker DEN 69 669 313 2.14

Looking at these lists, Antonio Brown appears to be a top target on paper but his schedule is brutal. Pats (Talib), Bills (tough pass rush, decent coverage), Lions (not a bad matchup but good pass rush), Browns (Haden), Ravens (good pass rush, rivalry low scoring). Keep in mind Big Ben also has the 2nd highest sack % in the league under pressure. Too risky.

DJax, another target whose owner may be in "sell low" mode also has a tough schedule, and Foles isn't instilling confidence. Not going there.

My sleeper pick for the next 3 weeks is Denarious Moore. He hasn't had a ton of targets (just started getting double digits), however he has a very manageable schedule in many cases where Pryor will be forced to throw: Philly (ideal-28th PC, good run D), NYG (ideal-17th PC, good run D), Houston (ideal-25th PC, 13th Run D), Titans (not great, 4th PC), Cowboys (average - 14th PC, bad run D). So the next 3 games are ideal matchups, esp with DMC not having a great game this week (very poor pass blocking, not catching the ball well). If you need help at WR, this could be a sneaky guy to trade for, especially since he didn't break 50 yards last week so the owner may be down on him.

 

[SP33Demon]

CJ = Calvin Johnson.

And no one is going to listen to anything you say unless you admit you are wrong. No one cares about quantitative analysis if it's done by an idiot. If you can't figure out that Anquan Boldin, who probably can't run a 5 second 40, isn't anywhere near Calvin Johnson(who has put up an all time great season as recently as last year) then why would anything else you say have merit.

Actually, someone from this thread just PM'd me their thanks for the advice which helped them win them the week with my Dalton recommendation. Keep up the name calling, like I said, my picks are hitting at an 80% rate, feel free to leave at any time or block me if you don't like what I have to say.

Edit: Actually, with your awful spelling, I thought you were comparing CJ Spiller to Brandon Bolden (CJ vs Bolden) for PPR. hahaha

 

[glenn1]

My sleeper pick for the next 3 weeks is Denarious Moore. He hasn't had a ton of targets (just started getting double digits), however he has a very manageable schedule in many cases where Pryor will be forced to throw: Philly (ideal-28th PC, good run D), NYG (ideal-17th PC, good run D), Houston (ideal-25th PC, 13th Run D), Titans (not great, 4th PC), Cowboys (average - 14th PC, bad run D). So the next 3 games are ideal matchups, esp with DMC not having a great game this week (very poor pass blocking, not catching the ball well). If you need help at WR, this could be a sneaky guy to trade for, especially since he didn't break 50 yards last week so the owner may be down on him.

If you can't get Denarious Moore (or get him for a reasonable price), another good play might be Kendall Wright (TEN). He's been putting up good and consistent numbers with Locker (6-7 receptions and 70ish yards per game). Bonus is he's coming out of a bye and likely not owned so you can get him for cheap in FA/waivers. Double bonus is that he has favorable matchups coming (PHI, JAC, IND, OAK) and finishes with ARI and JAX in the playoffs.

 

[SP33Demon]

If you can't get Denarious Moore (or get him for a reasonable price), another good play might be Kendall Wright (TEN). He's been putting up good and consistent numbers with Locker (6-7 receptions and 70ish yards per game). Bonus is he's coming out of a bye and likely not owned so you can get him for cheap in FA/waivers. Double bonus is that he has favorable matchups coming (PHI, JAC, IND, OAK) and finishes with ARI and JAX in the playoffs.

Yeah, I picked up Locker last week since Cutler went down. He'll be a good spot start for Matt Ryan during the next two weeks, as well as the two weeks Locker faces the Colts (Ryan vs NO, GB). He's actually an ideal complement for the rest of the year if you own Matt Ryan, even through the playoffs - outside of Week 12 (Bills or Colts?). Playoffs - start Ryan vs Skins/GB, sit him for SF where Locker has JAX.

Wright is the epitome of consistency in the slot with 5 points or more every week. I'm higher on Nate Washington for more red zone opp's/upside but Wright has scored once this year. Very solid WR and effective if paired with a high upside or boom/bust WR to normalize the bust weeks.

 

[AstroManLuca]

LOL. Protip: Don't refer to players by potentially confusing names like "Johnson," "Jackson," "CJ," etc.

Even "WR J. Jones." Who is that? James, Julio, or Jacoby?

 

[slayer202]

It's pretty clear that he's in the least, a WR3 in FF and a viable #1/2 IRL due to his talent. Of course for fantasy, SF simply isn't passing to him enough deep, 59 targets just isn't going to get it done for a WR1. Yet, he's the 4th most efficient in the NFL when they do. Calvin wasn't even in the top 30 in efficiency through week 6, then last week he broke the top 15, and this week he's finally vaulted to #1 after his big performance. Anquan's always been in the top 20, and he's tied with Calvin for 9th in QB rating at 106. Like someone else said, RL value and FF value don't always mesh for studs and SF's utilization of Boldin is not ideal because they have too many weapons (best TE in the league not named Graham, best RB not named Peterson, top 3 defense that can score, Kaep's superlative speed) to take the lead and run the clock out. This is the pattern we have seen so far and why SF is basically playing their 2nd stringers by the 4th quarter.

Looking at the WR performance metrics for efficiency and rating, I'm looking to target a few receivers before the playoffs to try and get better:

WR Rating-
1 Jordy Nelson GB 52 39 649 7 1 148.2
2 Demaryius Thomas DEN 66 48 685 6 2 123.6
3 Dez Bryant DAL 76 45 641 8 1 116.2
4 Wes Welker DEN 72 50 555 9 3 114.3
5 DeSean Jackson PHI 71 45 673 5 1 112.0
6 Brandon Marshall CHI 65 46 540 5 2 108.5
7 Antonio Brown PIT 70 56 630 2 1 107.7
8 Eric Decker DEN 69 46 669 3 1 106.5
9 Calvin Johnson DET 77 47 821 7 4 106.0
9 Anquan Boldin SF 59 38 551 2 0 106.0
11 Denarius Moore OAK 45 27 431 4 2 103.1
12 Josh Gordon CLV 57 32 582 3 1 101.6
13 Julio Jones ATL 57 41 580 2 2 101.5
14 Victor Cruz NYG 74 47 677 4 2 99.9
15 Harry Douglas ATL 50 35 490 1 1 99.6

YPR-
1 Calvin Johnson DET 77 821 288 2.85
2 Julio Jones ATL 57 580 212 2.74
3 Justin Blackmon JAX 46 415 161 2.58
4 Anquan Boldin SF 59 551 219 2.52
5 A.J. Green CIN 80 734 296 2.48
6 Andre Johnson HST 69 584 249 2.35
7 Jordy Nelson GB 52 649 279 2.33
8 Josh Gordon CLV 57 582 256 2.27
9 DeSean Jackson PHI 71 673 299 2.25
10 Vincent Jackson TB 88 623 280 2.23
11 Alshon Jeffery CHI 55 561 254 2.21
11 Denarius Moore OAK 45 431 195 2.21
13 Antonio Brown PIT 70 630 287 2.20
14 Torrey Smith BLT 57 629 290 2.17
15 Eric Decker DEN 69 669 313 2.14

Looking at these lists, Antonio Brown appears to be a top target on paper but his schedule is brutal. Pats (Talib), Bills (tough pass rush, decent coverage), Lions (not a bad matchup but good pass rush), Browns (Haden), Ravens (good pass rush, rivalry low scoring). Keep in mind Big Ben also has the 2nd highest sack % in the league under pressure. Too risky.

DJax, another target whose owner may be in "sell low" mode also has a tough schedule, and Foles isn't instilling confidence. Not going there.

My sleeper pick for the next 3 weeks is Denarious Moore. He hasn't had a ton of targets (just started getting double digits), however he has a very manageable schedule in many cases where Pryor will be forced to throw: Philly (ideal-28th PC, good run D), NYG (ideal-17th PC, good run D), Houston (ideal-25th PC, 13th Run D), Titans (not great, 4th PC), Cowboys (average - 14th PC, bad run D). So the next 3 games are ideal matchups, esp with DMC not having a great game this week (very poor pass blocking, not catching the ball well). If you need help at WR, this could be a sneaky guy to trade for, especially since he didn't break 50 yards last week so the owner may be down on him.

I hope no one is listening to your bullshit

 

[BudAshes]

Actually, someone from this thread just PM'd me their thanks for the advice which helped them win them the week with my Dalton recommendation. Keep up the name calling, like I said, my picks are hitting at an 80% rate, feel free to leave at any time or block me if you don't like what I have to say.

Edit: Actually, with your awful spelling, I thought you were comparing CJ Spiller to Brandon Bolden (CJ vs Bolden) for PPR. hahaha

You are right I spelled Boldin wrong. I apologize for my mistake. Now was that so hard? Although considering the conversation it would seem pretty obvious who I was talking about...

 

[BudAshes]

Actually, someone from this thread just PM'd me their thanks for the advice which helped them win them the week with my Dalton recommendation. Keep up the name calling, like I said, my picks are hitting at an 80% rate, feel free to leave at any time or block me if you don't like what I have to say.

Edit: Actually, with your awful spelling, I thought you were comparing CJ Spiller to Brandon Bolden (CJ vs Bolden) for PPR. hahaha

You aren't hitting an 80 rate either. I'd say you are under 50%. I doubt you are even winning a single league you are in with your lack of comprehension of statistics. That entire post you made about how great your predictions were, pretty much put every mediocre call you made in the positive column for some reason. You even told someone to put in durham over jones then decided to make marvin jones a win for you. You cost that guy 25 fantasy points if he listened to you.

I do agree on moore though as I just traded for him.

 

[Crono]

How does my roster look? 12 team PPR. Dropping Cumberland, was a pickup to fill in for Graham (that didn't work out too well, obviously). Been streaming defenses thus far, as well, so Philadelphia is also likely to be dropped.

 

[chitwood]

How does my roster look? PPR. Dropping Cumberland, was a pickup to fill in for Graham (that didn't work out too well, obviously).

Eagles DST... noooooooooo

 

[glenn1]

How does my roster look? 12 team PPR.]

You're sitting T.Y. Hilton in favor of Boykin?

 

[Crono]

You're sitting T.Y. Hilton in favor of Boykin?

Haven't finalized my lineup since I'm waiting on waivers to process, but I'll be starting Hilton barring any other news. Thought about starting Harvin if he plays this week, but I'll probably wait a week to start him.

 

[MisterJackson]

My gf just texted me a trade proposal (ESPN Standard League, Non PPR):

She gives me Bengals Defense and my choice of Harry Douglas or Kendall Wright. She gets Keenan Allen.

The Bengals D is what she's baiting me with since I have the K.C. D coming up on bye next week. I'd planned to grab the Titans D later this week since they play Jags week 10 (can't right now due to a pending trade with my second defense), but a guy scooped them up on waivers last night. I have to give him props for that, because I think he did it as a purely defensive play against me. Anyway, my current roster is below. So, take the gf's offer? And who to take with the Bengals D...Harry Douglas, or Kendall Wright?

QB - Brees
WR - C. Johnson
WR - D. Bryant
WR - P. Harvin
WR - K. Allen
RB - Moreno
RB - Bush
RB - Gore
RB - D. Murray
TE - Gronk
TE - M. Bennett
K - Prater
D/ST - K.C.

 

[MisterJackson]

Haven't finalized my lineup since I'm waiting on waivers to process, but I'll be starting Hilton barring any other news. Thought about starting Harvin if he plays this week, but I'll probably wait a week to start him.

Roster looks pretty good. How many teams in your league? I wish my league had an IR spot. I had to drop Andre Brown after drafting him

 

[glenn1]

My gf just texted me a trade proposal (ESPN Standard League, Non PPR):

She gives me Bengals Defense and my choice of Harry Douglas or Kendall Wright. She gets Keenan Allen.

The Bengals D is what she's baiting me with since I have the K.C. D coming up on bye next week. I'd planned to grab the Titans D later this week since they play Jags week 10 (can't right now due to a pending trade with my second defense), but a guy scooped them up on waivers last night. I have to give him props for that, because I think he did it as a purely defensive play against me. Anyway, my current roster is below. So, take the gf's offer? And who to take with the Bengals D...Harry Douglas, or Kendall Wright?

QB - Brees
WR - C. Johnson
WR - D. Bryant
WR - P. Harvin
WR - K. Allen
RB - Moreno
RB - Bush
RB - Gore
RB - D. Murray
TE - Gronk
TE - M. Bennett
K - Prater
D/ST - K.C.

Any other Defenses available, say CAR? I like Wright over Douglas but like Allen a lot better than either, and giving him up for the rest of the season in return for a 1-week rental on the Bengals D sounds pricey.

If it's your g/f, can't you include the offer of a foot rub as a sweetener?

 

[SP33Demon]

You aren't hitting an 80 rate either. I'd say you are under 50%. I doubt you are even winning a single league you are in with your lack of comprehension of statistics. That entire post you made about how great your predictions were, pretty much put every mediocre call you made in the positive column for some reason. You even told someone to put in durham over jones then decided to make marvin jones a win for you. You cost that guy 25 fantasy points if he listened to you.

I do agree on moore though as I just traded for him.

I was high on both Durham and Marvin Jones (MJ). I stated that MJ was PFF's "Flier of the Week" which has hit 6/7 times, so bet against it at your own caution. Numberfire was higher on Durham though, so it was like asking if an AK47 or M-16 = the better weapon or if he should have started Dez or Calvin Johnson. Anyway, Durham was < 2 points off his projected so tough titty, I successfully predicted the Dallas/Detroit shootout and Durham caught a huge pass on the game winning drive. Anyone who started him knew the risks and would be in desperation mode (5.57 projected points? seriously), he performed average for his projection and didn't hurt anyone, hence it was an Average result. I actually dropped him to pick up Mendenhall off waivers on Saturday - he was only a 1 week flier. MJ and both Durham will have diminished roles moving forward with Burleson and Hawkins coming back. Reread the thread, MJ and Hawkins were already discussed which significantly dimishes his long term value. Also, name the last guy to score 4 TDs on 18 snaps. Not. Sustainable.

80% or more -
Hit:Miss ratio (Averages not counted since they didn't hurt the team)
Week 7 - 5:1
Week 8 - 6:1

Now put me on ignore if you can't take the heat. Oh wait, you agree with me on D.Moore so you're still reading my posts, lol. Nevermind then.

 

[glenn1]

Now put me on ignore if you can't take the heat. Oh wait, you agree with me on D.Moore so you're still reading my posts, lol. Nevermind then.

He agrees because he already traded for Moore *2 weeks ago*. No one is disputing he's a good player, but you calling him a "sleeper pick" is pretty generous. It's not like Moore is some unknown dude ready to blow up, he's been scoring double digits points nearly every game since the beginning of the season.

 

[MetalMat]

He agrees because he already traded for Moore *2 weeks ago*. No one is disputing he's a good player, but you calling him a "sleeper pick" is pretty generous. It's not like Moore is some unknown dude ready to blow up, he's been scoring double digits points nearly every game since the beginning of the season.

Yeah here is a real sleeper pick, breakout tight end over next 3 weeks will be "Biggidy" Ben Watson of the New Orleans Saints.

 

[slayer202]

this dude needs to stop talking

every site I've seen has been recommending Moore this week...way to go out on a limb

how many useless stats can one man post? complete lack of comprehension of reality

 

[SP33Demon]

How does my roster look? 12 team PPR. Dropping Cumberland, was a pickup to fill in for Graham (that didn't work out too well, obviously). Been streaming defenses thus far, as well, so Philadelphia is also likely to be dropped.

You may want to check out Timothy Wright on the Bucs as a stash, he should get more targets now that Mike Williams is hurt. Of course this week vs Seattle isn't a good play. Glennon didn't do great against Carolina but I was surprised at how well he was poised against the pass rush and how hard it was to sack him.

One of my buddies said they're keeping Philly against Oakland since they performed well last week, but I've been too busy to check out DST's this week. I would worry about Denarious Moore scorching that secondary though since Pryor should be passing more than usual.

 

[SP33Demon]

He agrees because he already traded for Moore *2 weeks ago*. No one is disputing he's a good player, but you calling him a "sleeper pick" is pretty generous. It's not like Moore is some unknown dude ready to blow up, he's been scoring double digits points nearly every game since the beginning of the season.

It's a sleeper pick because a) Oakland is a rush-first team hence lack of targets for Moore and b) Pryor is one of worst passers in the NFL with a PFF QB Rating of 78.40. Only Henne, Manning, and Palmer have been worse. When the rubber hits the road and Pryor has to pass, we'll see if he folds like a cheap lawn chair or be smart and throw it to his best receiver without getting picked.