Is this the official 2013 Fantasy Football thread?

[glenn1]

Non-PPR tips things further toward Rice being the more valuable side of the equation. Witten is a middle of the road TE1 in standard, but a high TE1 in PPR because he tends to catch a large number of passes even if he doesn't score. Last year he set the NFL record for catches by a TE. He catches more passes per game than Rice, thus making him relatively less valuable in non-PPR vs. PPR.

Matt Ryan is not a QB you want to sell now. Too many people are nervous about him losing Julio. You'll just have to sit on him and hope that he is able to produce with Harry Douglas, Kevin Cone, and Drew Davis (and of course Steven Jackson and Tony Gonzalez underneath).

Who knows, it's not inconceivable that Atlanta might pick up Josh Gordon from the Browns as well.

 

[slayer202]

maybe you're right, but I was thinking more in terms of Rice's value in PPR vs non-ppr rather than rice vs witten directly. either way...

 

[SP33Demon]

I strongly strongly disagree

Let's look at all of the facts analyzing Witten vs Rice.

Using my league's scoring (non PPR):
Witten
1) Points already scored - 50.3
2) Dallas Pass blocking rating, overall offensive line rating - 4th best, 3rd best
3) Remaining Schedule before playoffs week 14, Pass Defense rating, overall Def rating
6 - Was, #32, #30
7 - @Phi, #31, #29
8 - @Det, #5, #13
9 - Min, #24, #25
10 - @NO, #14, #10
11 - Bye
12 - @NYG, #21, #13
13 - Oak, #28, #27
4) Health - 100%
5) Fumbles - 0
6) Other statistics -
a) Tight End Drop Rate - #2 with 0% drops, only Gonzalez has more receptions without a drop.
b) 3rd most targeted TE behind Graham and Gonzalez
7) Notes - 5 easy, 1 medium, 1 difficult. Cakewalk city.

R.Rice
1) Points already scored - 37.5
2) Ravens Run Block rating, overall offensive line rating - 2nd to last, 2nd to last
3) Remaining Schedule before playoffs week 14, Run Defense rating, overall Def rating
6 - GB, #8, #24
7 - @Pit, #24, #21
8 - Bye
9 - @Cle, #9, #6
10 - Cin, #4, #11
11 - @Chi, #30, #26
12 - NYJ, #1, #12
13 - Pit, #24, #21
4) Health - < 100% with a bad hip, missed a week.
5) Fumbles - 2 in 4 games, both lost
6) Other statistics -
a) #25/28 for PFF's Elusive Rating among RB's
b) Yards after contact - 1.6, #51 of 56
7) Notes - While he faces Pitt twice @#24 that has a -11 rating, the Ravens O-Line has a -36 run block so even those games aren't gimmes, especially since it's their archrival. The only game that should be a gimme is Chicago. So 4 difficult, 2 medium, 1 easy.

The picture should be a little clearer now on Witten vs Rice.

 

[slayer202]

CLEARER?!?! if you say so

 

[SP33Demon]

CLEARER?!?! if you say so

Yes, if you like statistics. Witten probably has the easiest schedule left among all tight ends because of the NFC (L)East. Rice's horrible O-Line and the fact he isn't making anyone miss equates to a miserable 2nd half before the Fantasy Playoffs start.

Another thing to keep in mind is that there are only a handful of elite tight ends (Graham, Gonzalez, Witten, Cameron, Gates, maybe Gronk) which are more rare than a Flex RB, even in a year when RBs are scarce. In 12 team leagues, you are going to be a disadvantage in the playoffs (assuming 6 make it) without an elite tight end (assuming you have 2 stud RBs). A flex RB can be substituted with a WR, albeit a more risky venture. For example, this week I will lose Rice's productivity in the Flex spot and have to pick a WR to replace him. Not ideal but he is going against a tough run D so it won't be that bad, especially if Witten explodes on the Redskins. You have to play the percentages.

 

[slayer202]

1. Rice is not a flex
2. you said gronk is maybe elite?
3. you are assuming all 6 playoff teams will have one of the 5.5 elite TEs
4. and 2 stud RBs

 

[glenn1]

Yes, if you like statistics. Witten probably has the easiest schedule left among all tight ends because of the NFC (L)East. Rice's horrible O-Line and the fact he isn't making anyone miss equates to a miserable 2nd half before the Fantasy Playoffs start.

Another thing to keep in mind is that there are only a handful of elite tight ends (Graham, Gonzalez, Witten, Cameron, Gates, maybe Gronk) which are more rare than a Flex RB, even in a year when RBs are scarce. In 12 team leagues, you are going to be a disadvantage in the playoffs (assuming 6 make it) without an elite tight end (assuming you have 2 stud RBs). A flex RB can be substituted with a WR, albeit a more risky venture. For example, this week I will lose Rice's productivity in the Flex spot and have to pick a WR to replace him. Not ideal but he is going against a tough run D so it won't be that bad, especially if Witten explodes on the Redskins. You have to play the percentages.

I think you can add Orange Julius to the list as well.

 

[MisterJackson]

Alright, changing the subject here Miller or Finley for a last minute TE pick up?

Here's my situation:

I've got Bennett and Gronk

Bennett plays tonight, and he's a game time decision. So I will drop him for either Finley or Miller should Bennett not play tonight. I need Miller or Finley as insurance on Sunday if, for some reason, Gronk no Gronk this week.

ESPN, standard rules, non PPR

 

[SP33Demon]

1. Rice is not a flex
2. you said gronk is maybe elite?
3. you are assuming all 6 playoff teams will have one of the 5.5 elite TEs
4. and 2 stud RBs

Rice is most certainly a Flex with his gimpy hip. He's averaged 7.x points per week so far, that's Flex numbers. I know everyone thinks he's great off his past years, but we can only look at his performance this year. He is putting up Flex numbers due to his injury and the Raven's horrible Run and Pass blocking.

Gronk hasn't played yet, so we don't know what kind of numbers he will put up. No more Welker and rookie receivers may hurt his past production, we'll see. I expect him to be elite but there's no guarantee. Julius Thomas is borderline elite only because Manning has so many weapons that split his production, he's definitely got the tools. He will be a good option in the playoffs for sure.

Yes, not all teams will have 2 stud RBs and TEs to make the playoffs but most finalists should have them, unless they are greatly making up for it at QB or WR. Stud RBs and elite TEs are the rarest slot this year.

 

[MetalMat]

Alright, changing the subject here Miller or Finley for a last minute TE pick up?

Here's my situation:

I've got Bennett and Gronk

Bennett plays tonight, and he's a game time decision. So I will drop him for either Finley or Miller should Bennett not play tonight. I need Miller or Finley as insurance on Sunday if, for some reason, Gronk no Gronk this week.

ESPN, standard rules, non PPR

You gotta start Bennett, you run the risk of a goose egg with Gronk and Bennett has a nice matchup

 

[SP33Demon]

Alright, changing the subject here Miller or Finley for a last minute TE pick up?

Here's my situation:

I've got Bennett and Gronk

Bennett plays tonight, and he's a game time decision. So I will drop him for either Finley or Miller should Bennett not play tonight. I need Miller or Finley as insurance on Sunday if, for some reason, Gronk no Gronk this week.

ESPN, standard rules, non PPR

Miller. While both are top 3 targets and both opponents stuff the run and grade negatively on the pass, the Jets grade out much worse against the pass (-22.2 vs -6.8). Also, consider that the Jets offense is clicking on all cylinders and there's a higher % that they will be ahead of Pitt, forcing them to throw more since the Jets absolutely stuff the run (#1 in the league). Green Bay will probably have a lead due to Rodgers dissecting Bal's secondary (which is actually good), just a hunch though - how much Finley will play in that dissection is the question. Both teams will probably have trouble running the ball in that game. Flacco has a good shot of dissecting Green Bay's secondary as well, so the Ravens will be competitive.

 

[MisterJackson]

You gotta start Bennett, you run the risk of a goose egg with Gronk and Bennett has a nice matchup

Oh, I agree 100%. Maybe I miscommunicated, but I WILL play Bennett, as long as he's active. This question only applies if Bennett does NOT play

EDIT: I should also add, I plan on Gronk being my flex

 

[SP33Demon]

Bennett and the Bears will feast on NYG's horrid pass defense. I'm starting Cutler, Jeffery, and Bennett in one league.

 

[MisterJackson]

Bennett and the Bears will feast on NYG's horrid pass defense. I'm starting Cutler, Jeffery, and Bennett in one league.

Yeah, this game could be a blood bath. I'm looking forward to it!

One other area I could use some help with is who to start at WR (God I miss you Julio!!!)

Megatron
D Jax
Terrance Williams
T.Y. Hilton

Obviously I'l start Calvin if he's active, but let's assume for a minute he's not. If he doesn't play, I'm thinking D. Jax and T.Y. Hilton. Not feeling great about the D. Jax call though, since he'll have Revis all over his ass. But Williams may not be a good play if Miles is back, but who knows, even with Miles back, maybe Terrance will have a monster day. They'd be a fool to not play him this week...but then a fool is what they have at GM/Owner.

 

[Crono]

Uhhh.. I suppose congratulations are in order for the trade you did. Alex Smith for Tom Brady (who has less points than Smith, fewer weapons, and is probably a lateral move at this point), Dez Bryant for Randall Cobb (downgrade), and Jordan Cameron for C.J. Spiller (confused). Which even after the trade leaves you rolling with Henne as your QB2.

I am completely baffled by it, but hope you got the deal you wanted.

The way I see it, it is a fair trade for both of us.

Alex Smith and Tom Brady have essentially the same passing yards and touchdowns right now (~1,200 yards, 7 TDs, 3 INT), and Alex Smith's boost in value has been about 30 rushing yards per game. Brady is getting Gronkowski and Amendola back. That's going to make a difference - I think people are forgetting what Brady is capable of, and for the past few weeks he's only had rookie receivers and Edelman to throw to. Smith is a known quantity and I think he'll be exactly what he has been, while Brady could be a huge upgrade for me over the next couple of weeks. It's likely he throws a lot more and gets a lot more touchdowns than Smith by the end of the season.

I'm hurting at running back with Wilson out for "a few weeks", and he might come back around the same time as Andre Brown, which would hurt his value a bit even if the Giants weren't playing terribly. CJ Spiller hasn't been performing great, but the ability is there and I could see him being a boon if I somehow make it to the playoffs. As it is, I could really use a decent RB2 as there is nothing left really on the waiver wire, barring future injuries.

Definitely taking a downgrade to receiver, but I think I had to in order to sweeten the deal a bit.

Jordan Cameron was easier to give up since I have Rob Gronkowski. I'll have to shuffle my flex with the odd QB or WR from week to week, but even a mediocre QB has the opportunity to put up 20 points in a good matchup, so I'm not really losing much by using Henne or whoever else happens to be in my motley crew on a given week.

 

[Adrenaline]

Starters:
QB - Brees
WR - D. Thomas
RB - Foster
RB - Bernard (kept him in this league)
TE - J. Thomas
W/R/T - Wayne
W/R/T - J. Gordon
K - Prater
D/ST - Seattle
Bench:
RB - Reece (May play him, don't know yet)
RB - B. Powell
TE - Cameron
RB - McFadden (No idea why I drafted him for a second RB)
QB - Rivers
RB - S. Jackson (I picked up off waivers hoping he comes back healthy)

Anyone I can drop for T. Williams? I would not mind getting him and I am looking at Reece.

Team 2
Starters:
QB - Rivers
WR - Marshall
WR - J. Gordon
RB - Lynch
RB - McCoy
TE - Witten
W/R/T - Lacy
K - Tucker
D/ST - Seattle
Bench:
WR - Boldin
QB - Ryan
RB - F. Jackson
RB - McGahee
WR - Blackmon
D/ST - Kansas City

This is the team that I traded Moreno and Decker for McCoy and L. Moore (dropped for Gordon). I had Julio, but he is gone now. This trade isn't looking too good for me right now.

Looking to maybe add Williams here as well.

Any ideas?

 

[MisterJackson]

The way I see it, it is a fair trade for both of us.

Alex Smith and Tom Brady have essentially the same passing yards and touchdowns right now (~1,200 yards, 7 TDs, 3 INT), and Alex Smith's boost in value has been about 30 rushing yards per game. Brady is getting Gronkowski and Amendola back. That's going to make a difference - I think people are forgetting what Brady is capable of, and for the past few weeks he's only had rookie receivers and Edelman to throw to. Smith is a known quantity and I think he'll be exactly what he has been, while Brady could be a huge upgrade for me over the next couple of weeks. It's likely he throws a lot more and gets a lot more touchdowns than Smith by the end of the season.

I'm hurting at running back with Wilson out for "a few weeks", and he might come back around the same time as Andre Brown, which would hurt his value a bit even if the Giants weren't playing terribly. CJ Spiller hasn't been performing great, but the ability is there and I could see him being a boon if I somehow make it to the playoffs. As it is, I could really use a decent RB2 as there is nothing left really on the waiver wire, barring future injuries.

Definitely taking a downgrade to receiver, but I think I had to in order to sweeten the deal a bit.

Jordan Cameron was easier to give up since I have Rob Gronkowski. I'll have to shuffle my flex with the odd QB or WR from week to week, but even a mediocre QB has the opportunity to put up 20 points in a good matchup, so I'm not really losing much by using Henne or whoever else happens to be in my motley crew on a given week.

100% agree with you on your Smith/Brady theory

 

[MisterJackson]

Starters:
QB - Brees
WR - D. Thomas
RB - Foster
RB - Bernard (kept him in this league)
TE - J. Thomas
W/R/T - Wayne
W/R/T - J. Gordon
K - Prater
D/ST - Seattle
Bench:
RB - Reece (May play him, don't know yet)
RB - B. Powell
TE - Cameron
RB - McFadden (No idea why I drafted him for a second RB)
QB - Rivers
RB - S. Jackson (I picked up off waivers hoping he comes back healthy)

Anyone I can drop for T. Williams is the Cowboys? I would not mind getting him and I am looking at Reece.

Team 2
Starters:
QB - Rivers
WR - Marshall
WR - J. Gordon
RB - Lynch
RB - McCoy
TE - Witten
W/R/T - Lacy
K - Tucker
D/ST - Seattle
Bench:
WR - Boldin
QB - Ryan
RB - F. Jackson
RB - McGahee
WR - Blackmon
D/ST - Kansas City

This is the team that I traded Moreno and Decker for McCoy and L. Moore (dropped for Gordon). I had Julio, but he is gone now. This trade isn't looking too good for me right now.

Looking to maybe add Williams here as well.

Any ideas?

I dropped Boldin for T. Williams. I just don't see Boldin making waves until SF gets another good WR target, and Kap gets his mojo back.

I don't see WR on your Team 1 that I'd drop for T. Williams though

 

[Adrenaline]

I dropped Boldin for T. Williams. I just don't see Boldin making waves until SF gets another good WR target, and Kap gets his mojo back.

I don't see WR on your Team 1 that I'd drop for T. Williams though

For team 1, it could be anyone. In just looking for a suggestion. For team 2, I was looking at Boldin.

 

[SP33Demon]

Starters:
QB - Brees
WR - D. Thomas
RB - Foster
RB - Bernard (kept him in this league)
TE - J. Thomas
W/R/T - Wayne
W/R/T - J. Gordon
K - Prater
D/ST - Seattle
Bench:
RB - Reece (May play him, don't know yet)
RB - B. Powell
TE - Cameron
RB - McFadden (No idea why I drafted him for a second RB)
QB - Rivers
RB - S. Jackson (I picked up off waivers hoping he comes back healthy)

Anyone I can drop for T. Williams? I would not mind getting him and I am looking at Reece.

Team 2
Starters:
QB - Rivers
WR - Marshall
WR - J. Gordon
RB - Lynch
RB - McCoy
TE - Witten
W/R/T - Lacy
K - Tucker
D/ST - Seattle
Bench:
WR - Boldin
QB - Ryan
RB - F. Jackson
RB - McGahee
WR - Blackmon
D/ST - Kansas City

This is the team that I traded Moreno and Decker for McCoy and L. Moore (dropped for Gordon). I had Julio, but he is gone now. This trade isn't looking too good for me right now.

Looking to maybe add Williams here as well.

Any ideas?

Reece on team 2. J.Gordon is graded lower than t.Williams this week only but obv not long term. Isn't miles Austin back this week?

 

[dougp]

Pick two WRs - I have flex spots, but Woodhead and Cutler are in them.

Garcon @ Dallas
Amendola vs. NO
DeSean Jackson @ TB

Apparently Amendola is healthy enough to be out for most snaps, and I expect the NO/NE game to be a high scoring affair. Garcon seems like an obvious play, so I guess the decision is Amendola or Jackson, who will be shadowed by Revis.

 

[dougp]

Reece on team 2. J.Gordon is graded lower than t.Williams this week only but obv not long term. Isn't miles Austin back this week?

No, Austin is not.

 

[slayer202]

Pick two WRs - I have flex spots, but Woodhead and Cutler are in them.

Garcon @ Dallas
Amendola vs. NO
DeSean Jackson @ TB

Apparently Amendola is healthy enough to be out for most snaps, and I expect the NO/NE game to be a high scoring affair. Garcon seems like an obvious play, so I guess the decision is Amendola or Jackson, who will be shadowed by Revis.

if it's not ppr then I'd sit amendola. if it's ppr, what did djax do last week after vick went down? if it's ppr it's probably pretty close. hope for no gronk?

 

[dougp]

if it's not ppr then I'd sit amendola. if it's ppr, what did djax do last week after vick went down? if it's ppr it's probably pretty close. hope for no gronk?

It's PPR. DJax caught 5 passes + yards and a TD after Foles came in.

 

[slayer202]

sheeeit. doesn't make it easy. how about your opponent? amendola is the more conservative pick, djax more upside?