Is this the official 2013 Fantasy Football thread?

[MetalMat]

Assuming all are healthy:

1) Josh Gordon is matchup proof in standard so always start him (assuming it translates to PPR which stud WR1's should).
2) Welker is also usually matchup proof (although Tennessee has 2 soon-to-be pro bowlers at corner), still starting him.
3) I'm not high on Cruz but he's definitely high risk high reward against SD (I have very low confidence in Eli). Green Bay (Jordy) and Atlanta (Douglas) are both horrid pass coverages that fall in the bottom third of the league, but it will be very cold at Lambeau on Sunday (< 20 deg with a 10% chance of snow) which could be advantageous to Green Bay - not sure what Matt Ryan's stats are in cold weather. In the off chance the forecast changes to snow then both will be of diminished value.
Summary: If you need a safe play with possible homerun potential then Cruz is the best bet. If you want to go riskier (chance of snow) with Jordy or Douglas then check Matt Ryan's cold weather splits and go from there. Jordy obviously is more talented but Matt Ryan > Flynn and Douglas was Ryan's favorite target in the slot due to that crappy O-Line vs NO and the Bills. However, Green Bay's pass rush sucks so I don't think Douglas will replicate his past 2 weeks of PPR success. Jordy (if not Cruz) would get the nod for me in this matchup.

Thanks, good advice. I'm starting Cruz & Gordon and am prepared to go down in flames with them.

They are ranking Harry Douglas fairly high in ppr (fantasypros) and I can see why but at this point I just can't turn my back on Welker after a mostly productive season. It would kill me to watch him blow up on my bench much more than watching Nelson or Douglas.

 

[KLin]

Julius Thomas or Garret Graham tonight against the Jags? hmmmm

 

[SP33Demon]

Thanks, good advice. I'm starting Cruz & Gordon and am prepared to go down in flames with them.

They are ranking Harry Douglas fairly high in ppr (fantasypros) and I can see why but at this point I just can't turn my back on Welker after a mostly productive season. It would kill me to watch him blow up on my bench much more than watching Nelson or Douglas.

Yeah PFF is predicting a shootout and thinking that Matt Ryan will have a big game despite the weather concerns. We'll see how the weather is.

Welker, I'm pretty sure that Verner/McCourty will be on Decker/D.Thomas most of the game so Welker may get checked down to often. Not many DBs can cover the guy anyway.

 

[glenn1]

Julius Thomas or Garret Graham tonight against the Jags? hmmmm

Orange Julius. Starting a player in a Thursday night game is almost always a mistake. Peyton Manning in Week 1 was definitely the exception that proved the rule, however.

 

[MetalMat]

Julius Thomas or Garret Graham tonight against the Jags? hmmmm

Julius Thomas all the way. I said it when Owen Daniels first got hurt, Garret Graham is not going to be a good replacement.

 

[dbk]

your entire lineup is comprised of 1st and 2nd round caliber players

this is a 6 or 8 man league I take it?

14

 

[MisterJackson]

So much for streaming D's. Fuck you Texans. 3 measly points. I mean come the fuck on, it's like you guys threw it away on purpose last night.

 

[Imported]

So much for streaming D's. Fuck you Texans. 3 measly points. I mean come the fuck on, it's like you guys threw it away on purpose last night.

Burned me too.

 

[SP33Demon]

So much for streaming D's. Fuck you Texans. 3 measly points. I mean come the fuck on, it's like you guys threw it away on purpose last night.

Yeah that sucks, the Jags aren't as bad as they used to be. The Texans weren't in the top 10 for DWC so I just steered clear.
http://nerdballmagazine.com/?p=991

We'll see how good they are when it comes to the Rams and Raiders high variance top 10 plays this week. I still don't think Oakland will cream the NYJ like everyone is forecasting, but I'll take the gamble for the hell of it.

 

[BeeBoop]

So much for streaming D's. Fuck you Texans. 3 measly points. I mean come the fuck on, it's like you guys threw it away on purpose last night.

Why would you play Houston defense vs Jackson? They've played very well in the past three weeks, should have been obvious!

 

[AstroManLuca]

So much for streaming D's. Fuck you Texans. 3 measly points. I mean come the fuck on, it's like you guys threw it away on purpose last night.

Jags aren't even a good fade anymore, and the Texans defense is truly awful.

The new fade is the Jets. And actually... the Texans. Shoulda played the Jags defense!

For this week, people should be looking at Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Cincinnati, and New England.

Oh and check out that Nerdball link a few posts above!

 

[AstroManLuca]

Yeah that sucks, the Jags aren't as bad as they used to be. The Texans weren't in the top 10 for DWC so I just steered clear.
http://nerdballmagazine.com/?p=991

We'll see how good they are when it comes to the Rams and Raiders high variance top 10 plays this week. I still don't think Oakland will cream the NYJ like everyone is forecasting, but I'll take the gamble for the hell of it.

They don't even have to kill the Jets, just prevent them from scoring more than 14 or so points. The only danger is if the Jets move to an extremely run-heavy game plan and Geno only attempts like 12 passes. No pass attempts = no sacks and no interceptions. Your only hope then is an RB fumble or a special teams TD.

Still, how well could the Jets possibly do with Geno at the controls? Or any of their other QBs, for that matter?

I'm going with the Cardinals defense myself. They're a very good real-life defense going up against a team that doesn't have a great offense. They're built to stop the run and the Rams' best offensive player is their RB so if they're forced to pass the Cards should do well.

 

[woodman1999]

Benching Gore for James Jones. Thoughts?

 

[MisterJackson]

Go Gore

Texans fired Kubiak.

 

[MisterJackson]

Jags aren't even a good fade anymore, and the Texans defense is truly awful.

The new fade is the Jets. And actually... the Texans. Shoulda played the Jags defense!

For this week, people should be looking at Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Cincinnati, and New England.

Oh and check out that Nerdball link a few posts above!

No joke. At least the Jags D showed up last night.

Why would you play Houston defense vs Jackson? They've played very well in the past three weeks, should have been obvious!

I learn the hard way sometimes, brother.

So who are some good D's for week 15?

Also, should I even consider starting the Titans against the Jags week 16? That's my championship week.

 

[KLin]

Damnu Garret Graham!!

 

[woodman1999]

Go Gore

Texans fired Kubiak.

Intriguing. Even against Seattle's defense with Jones playing crappy Atlanta?

Kubiack not intriguing... about time.

 

[SP33Demon]

Benching Gore for James Jones. Thoughts?

You're benching a stud RB at home in a revenge game against the 10th best graded run D for a #2 most targeted receiver with a bad QB on a short leash on a team that will feature its stud RB in a game that now has a 40% chance of snow. I don't like it.

Really the only risk to starting Gore is that rivalry games are usually lower scoring but I'm still starting Gore for possible upside. Jones' upside is crappy with Flynn at the helm. If it snows, crappy becomes virtually nil.

 

[MisterJackson]

Intriguing. Even against Seattle's defense with Jones playing crappy Atlanta?

Kubiack not intriguing... about time.

I don't like James Jones. If Rodgers were in, I'd say Jones. Gore more likely to score a TD than Jones, imho.

 

[SP33Demon]

They don't even have to kill the Jets, just prevent them from scoring more than 14 or so points. The only danger is if the Jets move to an extremely run-heavy game plan and Geno only attempts like 12 passes. No pass attempts = no sacks and no interceptions. Your only hope then is an RB fumble or a special teams TD.

Still, how well could the Jets possibly do with Geno at the controls? Or any of their other QBs, for that matter?

I'm going with the Cardinals defense myself. They're a very good real-life defense going up against a team that doesn't have a great offense. They're built to stop the run and the Rams' best offensive player is their RB so if they're forced to pass the Cards should do well.

What worries me is that the Jets can play above their expected baseline at home. They've knocked off the Saints (in a game where they magically pass rushed Brees) and Pats at home and it's not like Oakland has a pass rush of Miami (like last week's murderous loss). Geno is average when he has time to throw, but horrid against bad pass rushes. Oakland has the 3rd to last pass rush. I see your point that they probably won't score much so I'm hoping for that.

 

[SP33Demon]

Why would you play Houston defense vs Jackson? They've played very well in the past three weeks, should have been obvious!

To be fair the couple places that I've read with respectable analysts (Getting Defensive on roto, PFF's cumulative DST week 14 rankings) all had Houston around the #10 spot. For example:
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/45597/338/getting-defensive-week-14

They really had no reason as to why they were picking Houston other than the Jax fade ("This is one where you have to just close your eyes and click 'submit lineup'"). And oddly enough Ratcliffe did rank JAX right after Houston, who scored 8 points last night! hehe This is how I feel about Oakland @ NYJ, you are really picking the opponent more than the actual defense. At least with say StL, you know they're going to get massive pressure on Palmer in throwing situations due to the metrics that back it so I feel more comfortable.

 

[weirdichi]

Well, forgot to look at my lineup and MJD got a decent 12 pts for me. Now the question is do I start Chris Johnson against the Broncos or C.J. Spiller? against the Buccaneers?

 

[MetalMat]

Damnu Garret Graham!!

Yeah I was wrong wrong wrong about him, I'll fess up to my mistake. It's still hard to trust anyone on the Texans besides Andre Johnson.

 

[T2urtle]

I need a rb2/flex and te. Between my bench of

Joqiue bell
Zac Stacy
Rainey
Jordan reed
Ladarius green.
Greg jennings
Delanie walker

Ppr league.

 

[MisterJackson]

I need a rb2/flex and te. Between my bench of

Joqiue bell
Zac Stacy
Rainey
Jordan reed
Ladarius green.
Greg jennings
Delanie walker

Ppr league.

Stacy and Rainey are guaranteed touches. I'd roll with one of them over Bell, with the nod to Rainey (I love Stacy, but I'm benching him due to matchup, and I think his O-Line has problems this week). Out of TE's you have good options. My pick would be L.D.