Is this the end for AMD?

[superccs]

All those PCs you guys build for goofing around with your pants around your ancles, they are not such a large $ market. You look at research and education and thats a market for CPUs. You need to crunch some numbers for analyzing some data , and guess what AMD CPUs rock balls for a better price than Intel hardware.

I work in a biology lab and we are going to be getting a Bulldozer box to handle massive amounts of video conversion and image analysis, we also will be running 5Tb of genomic sequence data through that machine as well. If we continue in the current line of work we will probably grab 2-3 more boxes for a cluster.

Thats what fast CPUs get bought for and yes AMD is still in the game.

 

[lol123]

All those PCs you guys build for goofing around with your pants around your ancles, they are not such a large $ market. You look at research and education and thats a market for CPUs. You need to crunch some numbers for analyzing some data , and guess what AMD CPUs rock balls for a better price than Intel hardware.

I work in a biology lab and we are going to be getting a Bulldozer box to handle massive amounts of video conversion and image analysis, we also will be running 5Tb of genomic sequence data through that machine as well. If we continue in the current line of work we will probably grab 2-3 more boxes for a cluster.

Thats what fast CPUs get bought for and yes AMD is still in the game.

I know that ripping on the gamer/enthusiast market, with or without any basis in fact, is all the rage here (I've probably seen the same tirade repated 20-30 times on these forums) but when someone adds that the real money is in research and education it just looks ridiculous. I promise you that the gamer/enthusiast CPU market is many times larger than that for research/education, pretty much however you define that.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

The problem for AMD is, the kind of user who's satisfied with "good enough" has even less reason to choose Bulldozer than a hardcore gamer does.

Why would a user who just wants "good enough" spend the extra money for a Bulldozer CPU rather than going with a Core i3, Phenom II, Athlon II, or Pentium?

I believe AMD decided prematurely to change direction based on the changing approach to software. However, to answer your question more directly, consumers will buy it simply because it's new, comes preinstalled on new boxes and, 'more cores are always better' thinking. Obviously, this isn't a smart approach but, it still drives sales in the short run.

 

[IlllI]

All those PCs you guys build for goofing around with your pants around your ancles, they are not such a large $ market. You look at research and education and thats a market for CPUs. You need to crunch some numbers for analyzing some data , and guess what AMD CPUs rock balls for a better price than Intel hardware.

thats cool and all, and yet amd has marketed bulldozer to the pc enthusiast crowd. so if anything, amd failed to market their new cpu to the right people.

 

[Kevmanw430]

The education computer market is a whole lot larger than the enthusiast market % wise. Revenue wise.... not sure.

 

[Idontcare]

AMD can't stop Intel from using ANY existing x86 IP . If you got proof other wise show it.

That doesn't even make sense. What are you talking about?

What do you think is the IP that gets cross-licensed in those cross-license agreements? Recipes for chocolate chip cookies?

 

[mhahnheuser]

I'm an enthusiast that plays lots of games and choose AMD for the huge variety of options you get, not just one blinding fast component and the rest craptel. At least you can bulid an integrated system that works and multi tasks superbly well, that's on Thurban and Deneb. Regardless of what the dooms/sooth sayers here are reporting, Bulldozer will do it even better.

These are the slowest BD's you'll see, so suck it up Intel fans, the game is on. With fast APU's Single to Eight core options, Eyefinity options I think AMD has the field well covered. I certainly will be investing more in AMD's suit of products and I altready have three for my own personal use, my wife and son another and can't wait to build around my first APU, just looking for an excuse to start.

BD will be in my system repalcing Deneb by end of 2012 after my FX mobo and Xfire are set up in it and there is the next pillar of AMD it's upgradeable, really upgradeable and an enthusiast just has to love that aspect and I do.

AMD's biggest issue is getting enough of all these products to market through their relatively small manufacturing capacity or access there to. Since the advent of Slot 1 AMD has had the battle to establish itself on its own platform. It has simply changed focus from outright performance to functionality and scaleability and in that broader picture they are succeeding. Therefore direct comparison to Intel is what is irrelevant, not the manufacturer/designer.

 

[toyota]

lol, well at least we have people like mhahnheuser to help keep them in business so Intel keeps prices in check. I will probably get my faster Ivy Bridge cpu for a good price thanks partly to your donation to AMD.

 

[podspi]

They make almost no profits from their GPU business even in the best of times. Any new CEO is going to see this as a huge red flag.

AMD abandoned the high-end for CPU's a long time ago, not willingly though.

If they came out and claimed it was a "strategy" to bail on the high-end CPU market then it would merely be an acknowledgement of reality for the past year or two.

The layoffs are telling that they are in GPU.

What I'm curious about is the scenario where AMD just pulls out of x86 across the board and tells Intel to sit on it and rotate when it comes to the x86 IP that Intel needs to license for their existing products.

What degree of exhorbinant licensing fees could AMD extract from Intel in such a scenario? Given the volume of Intel's revenue that is dependent on having access to AMD x86 IP, could AMD stand to generate more x86 revenue just by holding Intel's revenue hostage with licensing fees?

I would be incredibly disappointed if AMD ended up being nothing more than a patent troll. I will also be very disappointed if the bow-out of the high-end GPU market. Clearly if their GPU division isn't turning a profit, it is a managerial issue, as their GPUs are at the very least squarely competitive on a perf/watt and perf/mm2 measure.

 

[Idontcare]

I would be incredibly disappointed if AMD ended up being nothing more than a patent troll. I will also be very disappointed if the bow-out of the high-end GPU market. Clearly if their GPU division isn't turning a profit, it is a managerial issue, as their GPUs are at the very least squarely competitive on a perf/watt and perf/mm2 measure.

^ Its been pointed out to be in pm that the reality of the layoffs is not that they are focused in GPU, or marketing/PR for that matter. It really is a 10% cut across the board, across all groups (engineers included).

Its just the vocal group happens to be the ones we are hearing about.

So don't read anything into who you've read about being laid off as being indicative of strategy shifts. Its an across the board downsizing.

 

[busydude]

So don't read anything into who you've read about being laid off as being indicative of strategy shifts. Its an across the board downsizing.

To add to this, it is not happening in a matter of days. AMD says this downsizing will go on until March 2012.

 

[CHADBOGA]

All those PCs you guys build for goofing around with your pants around your ancles, they are not such a large $ market. You look at research and education and thats a market for CPUs. You need to crunch some numbers for analyzing some data , and guess what AMD CPUs rock balls for a better price than Intel hardware.

I work in a biology lab and we are going to be getting a Bulldozer box to handle massive amounts of video conversion and image analysis, we also will be running 5Tb of genomic sequence data through that machine as well. If we continue in the current line of work we will probably grab 2-3 more boxes for a cluster.

Thats what fast CPUs get bought for and yes AMD is still in the game.

Nice made up story.

If you really did any serious computing work that required an x86 platform, you would be getting SB-E on x79.

AMD is going to become the new VIA over the next 5 years.

 

[iCyborg]

To add to this, it is not happening in a matter of days. AMD says this downsizing will go on until March 2012.

I believe that layoffs for N. America, where most of the workforce is, were mostly completed the same day they were announced (Thursday). This 'into 2012' is more about Europe where social laws require like 4 years of notice, or some special cases...
It's bad for company morale if you're laying off people little by little for months, you really want to do it quick.

 

[iCyborg]

If you really did any serious computing work that required an x86 platform, you would be getting SB-E on x79.

Will SB-E support ECC ram? Most serious work in labs is done on server models.
And there are apps where Bulldozer beats 2600K, if his number crunching is one of those, then he'd need >4 cores SB-E, and they won't be cheap as Bulldozers.

 

[StrangerGuy]

lol, well at least we have people like mhahnheuser to help keep them in business so Intel keeps prices in check. I will probably get my faster Ivy Bridge cpu for a good price thanks partly to your donation to AMD.

I love how he says "integrated system that works and multi tasks superbly well, that's on Thurban and Deneb." Did he meant that same uber 40 SP IGP that AMD is shoving down our throats since Mar 2008 til now?

 

[ViRGE]

That doesn't even make sense. What are you talking about?

What do you think is the IP that gets cross-licensed in those cross-license agreements? Recipes for chocolate chip cookies?

Not just any cookie recipe, but Gordon Moore's cookie recipe. The chocolate chip density doubles every 18-24 months.

 

[lopri]

Why AMD did bother with Bulldozer? I mean, they could have taken Thuban and refine its core and architecture (~5&#37, give more L3 (~5%, currently only 1MB per core), and fix the damn NB/HT (5~20%). All of the above on a 32nm process which will give lower thermal and better clocks. It would blow away BD and compete much better against SB.

From what I read, BD is a fail in design, fail in manufacturing, and fail in marketing. Normally with a new architecture you can see a "potential" or "stepping stone" for the future but so far I'm failing to even see such thing with BD.

 

[Nemesis 1]

That doesn't even make sense. What are you talking about?

What do you think is the IP that gets cross-licensed in those cross-license agreements? Recipes for chocolate chip cookies?

Thats not proper reply and you know it . Just talking points . I asked for proof . Than you target me jibberish

Nemesis, you should kow by now that many of your posts are hard to read. I don't even understand where you are going here.
Please calm down, and restate what you are trying to say in a different manner. From what I see, Idontcare is just fine with his reply.
Markfw900
Anandtech Moderator

 

[classy]

I think a lot of people are making assumptions, but skipping the one glaring simple fact. For years AMD has suffered from poor execution mostly, with poor design following. When you see something like this http://techreport.com/articles.x/21865, where they show Bulldozer's obvious scheduler issue, many people should be fired or laid off. Something like that should have been caught during the initial design and vetting stage. I don't think you'll see them abandon the high end cpu market at all, but I think you'll see them push into some markets and deal with their lack of quality control in others.

 

[lopri]

Wow. Thanks for that link, classy. That's a big no-no for my computing need because I manually assign affinities for my VMs to free up the rest of CPUs for other stuff. In order to gain some performance you have to give up ever other core? Geez.

 

[smartpatrol]

I believe AMD decided prematurely to change direction based on the changing approach to software. However, to answer your question more directly, consumers will buy it simply because it's new, comes preinstalled on new boxes and, 'more cores are always better' thinking. Obviously, this isn't a smart approach but, it still drives sales in the short run.

It's pretty sad that they essentially have to rely on people remaining ignorant and buying a product that's more expensive AND worse performing than the alternatives, just because it has moar cores and it's new. I'm skeptical about just how many CPUs they can sell this way, given that AMD's traditional selling point was always better performance/$. The bottom line is that there is simply no niche for Bulldozer, no price point where it makes sense to choose Bulldozer rather than something else.

Then again the "sell inferior, overpriced products to ignorant customers" business model has worked pretty well for Bose and Monster . . .

 

[frozentundra123456]

All those PCs you guys build for goofing around with your pants around your ancles, they are not such a large $ market. You look at research and education and thats a market for CPUs. You need to crunch some numbers for analyzing some data , and guess what AMD CPUs rock balls for a better price than Intel hardware.

I work in a biology lab and we are going to be getting a Bulldozer box to handle massive amounts of video conversion and image analysis, we also will be running 5Tb of genomic sequence data through that machine as well. If we continue in the current line of work we will probably grab 2-3 more boxes for a cluster.

Thats what fast CPUs get bought for and yes AMD is still in the game.

I wont dispute that bulldozer may work well for the particular application that you use. I find it hard to believe than a high end Intel system would not work as well or better, but I will accept what you say.

However, I have worked in research labs for over 30 years in a VA Hospital and at a major university. Both of these employ two or three computers in every office and lab, totalling thousands of computers for each institution. I have yet to see an AMD system.
Some people still use Macs for specific scientific/imaging uses, but AMD is no where to be seen. So in my opinion, bulldozer may be superior for certain limited situations, but in the general laboratory, office, educational environment, Intel has nearly the entire market tied up.

Edit: Furthermore, for the kind of applications the average lab or office uses, (office tasks, Sigma plot, database software), bulldozer is an even worse option than Intel or even phenon or Llano. Higher price, higher power usage, and slower ICP than any other option.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

I entirely agree with you on this. Except it hadn't crossed my mind that they might try to come up with a new arch for use in mobile devices.

I spent much of last night and this morning benchmarking the A4-3300 APU for the upcoming budget buyer's guide. This is the least capable Llano Fusion APU, and it's impressive what you can actually do with it - from a mainstream point of view. I already think Fusion is a game-changer for the mainstream, and its earliest iterations are impressive.

So, will AMD be relevant in 5 years? I think the answer at the enthusiast level, no, they won't be. But at the mainstream/consumer level? Yes, definitely.

Intel put a GPU on the die in their latest chips for a reason.

AMD still has a reason to do some GPU development, IMO, because they're able to sell tens of millions of GPUs to console manufacturers. If I am not mistaken, they've got the contract for the next Xbox and Wii wrapped up and maybe even the next Playstation (could be wrong there). Now, obviously, it would be more attractive to AMD to sell APUs for the next consoles but to do so, the onboard graphics are going to need to have some serious horsepower and I'm not sure they're there yet.

Of course, maybe I'm wrong and after the next console generation, AMD won't be interested in pursuing any more console chip sales. You've got to figure that the next Wii is probably going to use a variation of a Radeon 5000 or 6000 series and the next Xbox will probably use something along the lines of a Radeon 7000, so much of the R&D on those is already done.

 

[Idontcare]

I think a lot of people are making assumptions, but skipping the one glaring simple fact. For years AMD has suffered from poor execution mostly, with poor design following. When you see something like this http://techreport.com/articles.x/21865, where they show Bulldozer's obvious scheduler issue, many people should be fired or laid off. Something like that should have been caught during the initial design and vetting stage. I don't think you'll see them abandon the high end cpu market at all, but I think you'll see them push into some markets and deal with their lack of quality control in others.

True.

 

[amenx]

This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end

Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
No safety or surprise, the end
I'll never look into your eyes...again

Jim Morrison - The Doors