Is this a bad time to buy a GPU?

[3DVagabond]

They have released new cards but NOT a new series. We shall see. I'm going with historical evidence and the difficulties of production rather than tech sites who have a vested interest in hyping the latest and greatest.

Well, by that logic, when was the last time they released a new series of cards 1st quarter? The 5000 series was in Sept '09. The 6000 series was in Oct. '10 with the 6800, and the 6900 came out in Dec. I don't think history precludes anything here.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

We shall see. Working samples are for testing not, to prove they can be built. Die shrink is easier on Engineers not, in production.


They have released new cards but NOT a new series. We shall see. I'm going with historical evidence and the difficulties of production rather than tech sites who have a vested interest in hyping the latest and greatest.

From some weeks ago, a demo running Dragon Age 2. You also get a shot of the GPU itself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlSNjBqb228

A demo from a month and a week week ago running DiRT 3. In the third photo you can see the cooling solution.

Obviously they're using mainstream parts for demoing this.

 

[OS]

i just watched that and they explicitly said that was a notebook part

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

My recommendation? Nab a HD5870 off of ebay for $170. Nothing can touch that. I've seen some 5850's for $130.

My 1GB 6950s beg to differ ($140 each after selling off the Dirt3 codes).

 

[BrightCandle]

The current news is all about low end parts for laptops (up to 76xx). While they are saying they have 28nm coming in December they haven't yet shown off desktop class 79xx hardware, I don't think its coming this year. Too many rumors about problems with the process slowing down both AMD and NVidia.

 

[RampantAndroid]

Working samples are not the same as production chips. There are yield problems as expected with 28nm chips at TSMC. This is BOTH a technological problem and a marketing stance issue. Historically, neither AMD or Nvidia have released new series in December. I don't think they'll start now because the early adopters are getting antsy.

How long did AMD have working Bulldozer parts? And yet how far delayed were they? Sure, you can get a working part, but your yield might still be 5% or less. Magnus is right here. We'll not see a new AMD card until next year, and Kepler will be worth looking at too. If you need a card now, get one. If you can wait, and are OK with the next gen costing more and having an improvement similar to what the last gen offered, wait. Remember, the new parts first out of the gate will likely not be the budget parts.

Also, isn't AMD going to be using the same fab they used for BD parts? If true, I'd be expecting delays (and nVidia uses the same fab as well, correct?)

 

[Leyawiin]

Probably one of the worst cards to recommend at this point in time. The HD 6950 1GB is a better buy because it's made for the Enthusiast market instead of Performance like the GTX 560 Ti. That's why the 6950 is on average faster.

Plus new AMD cards will probably be here at the end of this year.

Such hyperbole. At stock clocks they're pretty much neck and neck. If the GTX 560 Ti is a poor buy in your estimation so is the HD 6950 1GB you're recommending.

http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/AMD/HD_6950_1_GB/22.html

 

[3DVagabond]

The current news is all about low end parts for laptops (up to 76xx). While they are saying they have 28nm coming in December they haven't yet shown off desktop class 79xx hardware, I don't think its coming this year. Too many rumors about problems with the process slowing down both AMD and NVidia.

There's a lot of room between 7600 and 7900. I would be surprised if we did see 7900's before 28nm HP was available. I can easily see the 7800 on HPL though.

I personally hope they don't manufacture the 7900 on HPL because when HP does come along, and nVidia uses it, the 7900 won't be able to compete. Either that or a refresh when 28nm HP comes around, but I don't think there's enough time to get a return on the R&D to make a 7900 HPL part that fast. Be better off just to wait, IMO.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

Such hyperbole. At stock clocks they're pretty much neck and neck. If the GTX 560 Ti is a poor buy in your estimation so is the HD 6950 1GB you're recommending.

http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/AMD/HD_6950_1_GB/22.html

Not with new drivers for both, they're not. Look at the link at posted. With recent drivers for both, 8% difference. Given how long they've been out on the market that won't change in any noticeable way. The HD 6950 is the faster card out of the two, and it's also faster clock-for-clock. Core overclocking is similar on both, with Memory overclocking being higher on the HD 6950.

The NVIDIA biased can defend the card all they want, but the reality is that it's a higher-tier Performance card competing against a lower-tier Enthusiast one, and that shows. The GTX 560 isn't a good buy, either. It costs more than the HD 6870, it's the same speed, and consumes more power.

Also, more info regarding the shift to 28nm:

TSMC today announced that its 28nm process is in volume production and production wafers have been shipped to customers. TSMC leads the foundry segment to achieve volume production at 28nm node.

TSMC’s 28nm process offering includes 28nm High Performance (28HP), 28nm High Performance Low Power (28HPL), 28nm Low Power (28LP), and 28nm High Performance Mobile Computing (28HPM). Among these technology offerings, 28HP, 28HPL and 28LP are all in volume production and 28HPM will be ready for production by the end of this year. The production-version design collateral of 28HPM has been distributed to most mobile computing customers for their product-design use.

The number of customer 28nm production tape outs has more than doubled as compared with that of 40nm. At 28nm, there are currently more than 80 customer product tape-outs. The TSMC 28nm process has surpassed the previous generation’s production ramps and product yield at the same point in time due to closer and earlier collaboration with customers. TSMC’s 28nm design ecosystem is available through its Open Innovation Platform®, with qualified EDA design tools and third-party IP ready for customer designs.

Speaks for itself. Unfortunately for NVIDIA they're gonna be some months behind AMD on this. Now, if only Bulldozer was as good as AMD's GPUs...

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

How long did AMD have working Bulldozer parts? And yet how far delayed were they? Sure, you can get a working part, but your yield might still be 5% or less. Magnus is right here. We'll not see a new AMD card until next year, and Kepler will be worth looking at too. If you need a card now, get one. If you can wait, and are OK with the next gen costing more and having an improvement similar to what the last gen offered, wait. Remember, the new parts first out of the gate will likely not be the budget parts.

Also, isn't AMD going to be using the same fab they used for BD parts? If true, I'd be expecting delays (and nVidia uses the same fab as well, correct?)

Not applicable. AMD kept making revisions and delaying Bulldozer because they didn't hit power and clock speed targets--and even then in the end it ended up failing. Such a thing has not happened, and will probably not happen, with their 28nm refresh (HD 7800 and below).

Bulldozer CPU dies are manufactured by GlobalFoundries; GPU dies are manufactured by TSMC. Ever since 55nm or so AMD has worked closer with TSMC to bring out products sooner using newer process nodes. The fact that ever since the Radeon HD 4000 series they've heavily focused on performance/watt and making reasonably-sized dies is mostly what gave them the upper hand against NVIDIA when it came to new process nodes. That's why you saw the HD 4770, and the Radeon HD 5000 series was out on the market six months before NVIDIA's 400 series. Same thing will happen with 28nm, though probably not as pronounced as 40nm.

 

[Vdubchaos]

I think gaming industry has hit a stalemate past 5 years. Thank Consoles for that.

Graphics progress has been stalled. Even if you want to blow $500 on a graphics card, you will still be playing a game with similar graphics to original crysis (or little better).

BF 3 might change that, we will see tomorrow (so far Beta was a disappointment from Graphics standpoint....but EA did acknowledge that they scaled back on that end....we shall see)

 

[swilli89]

My 1GB 6950s beg to differ ($140 each after selling off the Dirt3 codes).

If you can find that deal then get that card,by all means. On a side note I've been hearing that bf3 might use more than 1gb of VRAM..

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

If you can find that deal then get that card,by all means. On a side note I've been hearing that bf3 might use more than 1gb of VRAM..

At 2560x1440 with 4xMSAA, maybe. Anything below, including 1920x1200 with 4xMSAA, doubt it.

 

[RussianSensation]

The GTX 460 is still the best deal. The cards above it in the market are over inflated in terms of price IMO.

GTX460 was a good card maybe 6-9 months ago (when deals for $80-120 were available). At current prices pushing almost $140, it's not very relevant.

You can now get an XFX HD6870 with lifetime warranty and Dirt 3 for $150. The cheapest GTX460 on Newegg is $130 + ~ $8 shipping and comes with a less interesting game imo. And if you look at the latest games such as BF3, a stock HD6870 is 23% faster than a GTX460. So you'll need to overclock a GTX460 just to match a stock HD6870. And the 460 doesn't come with lifetime warranty either.

Are we at the end of a production cycle, or is there still a lot of value to be had in the current wave of cards? I'm looking to spend 180-200 on a card. Will I be able to get a lot more value out of that if I wait until later this year? Or is everything mostly going to stay the same between now and January?

New stuff is going to come out eventually. Right now, I would say the most reasonable estimate for when HD7000 series will launch in good availability is Q1 2012 (perhaps January?). If you need to upgrade now, then just be on the lookout for some deals. As we start approaching xmas and black Friday, I am sure there may be a $150 deal on an HD6950 or a $200 deal on a GTX570.

 

[notty22]

Such hyperbole. At stock clocks they're pretty much neck and neck. If the GTX 560 Ti is a poor buy in your estimation so is the HD 6950 1GB you're recommending.

http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/AMD/HD_6950_1_GB/22.html

Agreed. It's hard to argue against technical discussion like fanboy bias, and clock for clock ? It often comes down to features and price (deals). And often it's a balance of those.
Anands , Ryan Smith review.

So what do I make of the GTX 560 Ti? There’s the question I haven’t quite answered. It seems like the video cards that go down in history as being truly great are aggressively priced cards the competition has no immediate answer for. I firmly believe that NVIDIA deserves most of the credit for the recent shakeup in video card pricing between $200 and $300 due to the launch of the GTX 560 Ti. But credit is not the same as a solid recommendation.
AMD’s scramble to launch the Radeon HD 6950 1GB has produced a card with similar levels of performance and pricing as the GTX 560 Ti, making it impossible to just blindly recommend the GTX 560 Ti. With sufficient case cooling both the GTX 560 and the Radeon HD 6950 1GB are good cards for the price, and represent a meaningful step up from where we were just 2 weeks ago. Ultimately I think the situation is very similar to December’s launch of the 6900 series, and the match-up between the GTX 570 and the Radeon HD 6970: we have two very similar cards in almost all respects. The GTX 560 Ti ultimately has the edge: it’s a bit faster and it’s quieter than the 6950, and if that’s all you care about then there’s the answer you seek. But you could grab the 6950 1GB and you’d be doing no worse. The deciding factor seems to come down to just how much to value noise and cooling (560) versus power consumption (6950), what games you play, and whether you’re currently invested in the NVIDIA (CUDA, 3D Vision) or AMD (Eyefinity) ecosystem.

 

[happy medium]

Gtx560ti looks good in BF3. Looks like 1gb IS enough ha?

 

[swilli89]

Gtx560ti looks good in BF3. Looks like 1gb IS enough ha?

Wait, are we talking about the Battlefield 3 beta test or Battlefield 3 the game? It says "max detail" but that wasn't possible in beta. I wouldn't postulate one way or the other regarding its VRAM usage until someone has tested the final game.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

Agreed. It's hard to argue against technical discussion like fanboy bias, and clock for clock ? It often comes down to features and price (deals). And often it's a balance of those.
Anands , Ryan Smith review.

You simply don't get it, do you?

The GTX 560 Ti doesn't have the edge in anything significant. Not when it was launched, even less now. The reviewer may have said that, but he was clearly being biased. Even in his review they were tied, and now the performance difference has grown to something noticeable. And clock-for-clock comparisons are meaningful because it punctuates what I said earlier about one being overall a lower-tier product. The GTX 560 Ti is based on a souped-up performance market architecture, while the HD 6950 is based on a slightly watered-down enthusiast one.

 

[96Firebird]

Wait, are we talking about the Battlefield 3 beta test or Battlefield 3 the game? It says "max detail" but that wasn't possible in beta. I wouldn't postulate one way or the other regarding its VRAM usage until someone has tested the final game.

It is the final game... The article the test was published in was posted today, the game releases tomorrow. Not sure how the website got to benchmark the game early, but that is what they are claiming.

The reviewer may have said that, but he was clearly being biased.

 

[lavaheadache]

Now is just as good a time as any to buy. Price is always king. I don't care if brand new cards released tomorrow and you could buy a 580 for $150 right now it would be an awesome deal. So, anytime is a good time to buy depending on the card you buy and the price you pay for it. Too bad you missed out on the New Egg deal on the Galaxy GTX480 forr $199. It is even elegible for a $25 rebate.

Keep a close watch on the Hot Deals section in here and you will surely find you next card at a very good price

 

[96Firebird]

Oh, and because I got sidetracked from what I was going to say and went way off-topic with my last post...

It really depends on if you can hold out for the new cards. If you really need a card for an upcoming game or two, it may be a perfect time for you to get a new card. If you can hold on to your current hardware and turn down the image quality without being bothered, it may be a better idea to wait it out.

 

[VulgarDisplay]

Are we at the end of a production cycle, or is there still a lot of value to be had in the current wave of cards? I'm looking to spend 180-200 on a card. Will I be able to get a lot more value out of that if I wait until later this year? Or is everything mostly going to stay the same between now and January?

I'll ask the obvious question that everyone else failed to bring up while the fanboys ranted. What card do you currently have?

If you have a 5850 or higher for AMD, or a GTX460 or higher for nvidia I would suggest waiting because the price/performance ratio from those cards to the higher end cards out now is not worth it. Also, depending on your current card that ratio may not be worth it in the $200 price range.

 

[happy medium]

I'll ask the obvious question that everyone else failed to bring up while the fanboys ranted. What card do you currently have?

Please check post #16.

 

[RampantAndroid]

Not applicable. AMD kept making revisions and delaying Bulldozer because they didn't hit power and clock speed targets--and even then in the end it ended up failing. Such a thing has not happened, and will probably not happen, with their 28nm refresh (HD 7800 and below).

Bulldozer CPU dies are manufactured by GlobalFoundries; GPU dies are manufactured by TSMC. Ever since 55nm or so AMD has worked closer with TSMC to bring out products sooner using newer process nodes. The fact that ever since the Radeon HD 4000 series they've heavily focused on performance/watt and making reasonably-sized dies is mostly what gave them the upper hand against NVIDIA when it came to new process nodes. That's why you saw the HD 4770, and the Radeon HD 5000 series was out on the market six months before NVIDIA's 400 series. Same thing will happen with 28nm, though probably not as pronounced as 40nm.

Actually, they had issues spinning up the line. You're forgetful, ignorant or plain didn't see it. They had major yield issues for a while. TSMC had yield issues with nVidia. They also spin AMD chips. If nVidia is having issues with 28nm at GF, that means AMD will likely have them too. You can keep on hoping thoguh....

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

Actually, they had issues spinning up the line. You're forgetful, ignorant or plain didn't see it. They had major yield issues for a while. TSMC had yield issues with nVidia. They also spin AMD chips. If nVidia is having issues with 28nm at GF, that means AMD will likely have them too. You can keep on hoping thoguh....

TSMC had yield issues with NVIDIA because the GF100 die was huge and hard to manufacture. With AMD they were able to get a full series of products to market six months earlier and Cypress had less yield issues than GF100. TSMC had yield issues with AMD because it was a new architecture and lower process node, but problems were nowhere near the same level NVIDIA had. NVIDIA's issues were so big that they weren't even able to get a full GF100 die at the beginning with enough yields and had to bring to market a card with one disabled GPU cluster. Parts for AMD and NVIDIA were in low to medium quantity at the beginning, and that's probably what will happen here.

TSMC already said they've taped out, and they're all in full volume production except HPM. They also said they're having less yield issues with 28nm than 40nm. But hey, you know more than they do, right?

TSMC today announced that its 28nm process is in volume production and production wafers have been shipped to customers. TSMC leads the foundry segment to achieve volume production at 28nm node.

TSMC’s 28nm process offering includes 28nm High Performance (28HP), 28nm High Performance Low Power (28HPL), 28nm Low Power (28LP), and 28nm High Performance Mobile Computing (28HPM). Among these technology offerings, 28HP, 28HPL and 28LP are all in volume production and 28HPM will be ready for production by the end of this year. The production-version design collateral of 28HPM has been distributed to most mobile computing customers for their product-design use.

The number of customer 28nm production tape outs has more than doubled as compared with that of 40nm. At 28nm, there are currently more than 80 customer product tape-outs. The TSMC 28nm process has surpassed the previous generation’s production ramps and product yield at the same point in time due to closer and earlier collaboration with customers. TSMC’s 28nm design ecosystem is available through its Open Innovation Platform®, with qualified EDA design tools and third-party IP ready for customer designs.

http://www.techpowerup.com/154066/TSMC-28-nm-Technology-in-Volume-Production.html

Too bad you can't be unbiased, but the reality is AMD is gonna come to market much sooner than NVIDIA with 28nm, just like they did with 40nm. Given what we're seeing, a launch of the HD 7800 series and below seems completely feasible for the end of this year.