Agree-- this is why I believe DRM, as much as I do not like it, is important. Being able to protect what you design is very important.
They only way it has not hit bottom, is if there is going to be another drop. RIght now housing market conditions are improving. Forclosure rates are falling, sales are increasing and excess housing inventory is being worked out and there has even been some minor increases in price.
We have hit bottom, unless something changes that.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
To be fair you said the same thing in a thread in February and it continued to decline
It seems median home prices went up last month, but one argument for that is that some in the richer houses are having to bail on their homes, which are dragging up the median. I don't know if it's a valid argument. I personally think that there will be another drop in things. I think that overall the country is in a bit of a delusion right now. Unemployment is just charging up too fast and debt is too high. This is being reflected in the stock market in the past couple of weeks, it's like the mood had soured again.Originally posted by: Skoorb
To be fair you said the same thing in a thread in February and it continued to decline
I said the same thing back in febuary because that is when, according the data, things appeared to stopped getting worse. The housing data has generally been getting better and it certainty has not got any worse since then. So unless things go south again, we are at a bottom.
WhipperSnapper
Lifer
- Oct 30, 2004
- 11,442
- 32
- 91
The author makes an interesting point. What happens when all of the people who are receiving unemployment payments run out? Could we see a French-style Second American Revolution complete with the beheading of the upper classes? What will happen when the angry, indignant, homeless, destitute masses start to get hungry? I'm amazed that no one's knocked off a bank CEO and his family yet. (If it did happen, would millions of Americans secret cheer and enjoy some shadenfraude? (sp?)) It seems like it's just a matter of time. Perhaps Pennsylvania Avenue will be lined with the heads of politicians on pikes one day.
And an interesting figure ...
"....in a sign of ongoing employment weakness, continued claims of people still on jobless aid after an initial week of benefits rose by 159,000 to a record 6.88 million in the week ending June 27, the latest for which data is available."
With the unemployment rolls increasing how is the worst over? A record 6.88 million people receiving unemployment benefits plus who knows how many no longer eligible.
"....in a sign of ongoing employment weakness, continued claims of people still on jobless aid after an initial week of benefits rose by 159,000 to a record 6.88 million in the week ending June 27, the latest for which data is available."
With the unemployment rolls increasing how is the worst over? A record 6.88 million people receiving unemployment benefits plus who knows how many no longer eligible.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
I guess that's true. In some months either charrison or I will be shown as right
The vast majority of people are still employed though and still watching tv on cable and going to movies. As bad as things are, it's still a ways off before we have a tiny minority of very wealthy and then a vast majority of people eating rotten apples.
I love all this talk about a 2H09 recovery. But I wouldn't bet on it. Things are bad and getting worse -- especially on the job front. And the financial media cheerleaders add to this by constantly overemphasizing the positive and deemphasizing the negative in virtually every piece of weekly economic data available.
You can't have a recovery without an expansion of credit, and credit is being removed -- consumer credit declined by $3.2 billion in May and $16.5 billion in April.
But the biggest thing no one is talking about is the number of people now on Extended and Emergency Unemployment Comp, both of which are NOT counted in Continuing Claims data that comes out. And the graph of people on the 3rd and final "Emergency" extension has gone parabolic in the last 3 months suggesting many are on their last legs with respect to assistance and still haven't found jobs:
Link to story
"Adding 2.519 million from the above chart to 6.883 million from the second chart the current real total (assuming nothing else is missing) the current number receiving unemployment benefits is 9.4 million.I am unsure how Federal Employees, Newly discharged Veterans, the Railroad Retirement Borad, and especially the 346,559 Extended Benefit numbers fit into the EUC 2008 program, but I suspect all those numbers need to be added in as well, making the true count still higher..."
I think we'll start to see a decline in continuing claims and initial claims (as people drop off of assistance rolls) but a corresponding decline in GDP which will directly offset the "positive" data the bulls will spin from the claims improvement.
This market should be sold -- I think the Dow will drop to 5-6k and S&P to sub-700 again by year-end.
You can't have a recovery without an expansion of credit, and credit is being removed -- consumer credit declined by $3.2 billion in May and $16.5 billion in April.
But the biggest thing no one is talking about is the number of people now on Extended and Emergency Unemployment Comp, both of which are NOT counted in Continuing Claims data that comes out. And the graph of people on the 3rd and final "Emergency" extension has gone parabolic in the last 3 months suggesting many are on their last legs with respect to assistance and still haven't found jobs:
Link to story
"Adding 2.519 million from the above chart to 6.883 million from the second chart the current real total (assuming nothing else is missing) the current number receiving unemployment benefits is 9.4 million.I am unsure how Federal Employees, Newly discharged Veterans, the Railroad Retirement Borad, and especially the 346,559 Extended Benefit numbers fit into the EUC 2008 program, but I suspect all those numbers need to be added in as well, making the true count still higher..."
I think we'll start to see a decline in continuing claims and initial claims (as people drop off of assistance rolls) but a corresponding decline in GDP which will directly offset the "positive" data the bulls will spin from the claims improvement.
This market should be sold -- I think the Dow will drop to 5-6k and S&P to sub-700 again by year-end.
No shit sherlock. I said this when the initial information came out. Wealth transfer payments dont do jack shit.
And believe it or not, this sh!theads are contemplating to do the same identical mistakes as the first stimulus with a second stimulus expecting different results! Now that's what you call a pure and absolute bonehead! This is not the first or second time the Feds tried spending their way out of recession and failed! Yet here they are trying again.
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