- Feb 18, 2001
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I found this rather short article interesting as I've been recently thinking about the similarities between the US today and Japan of the 80s:
"Is the US turning Japanese?
Americans may have to get used to a slow-growth economy.
U.S. consumers are now living in a world much like the one the Japanese have been living in for the past 20 years: a world with limited access to credit, little or no appreciation in asset values, slow growth, large government deficits, and a rickety banking system.
The headline story about Japan is that the bubble economy of the 1980s was popped by central bank policy, and through bad policy choices the country has remained mired in deflation and low growth ever since.
That sounds like something we Americans may experience. The point is, though, that people are adaptable and can learn to cope with a no-growth or slow-growth economy.
The Japanese were the envy of the world (and bugaboo of American pundits) during the so-called Bubble Economy of the 1980s, when excess savings and low rates drove a huge run-up in asset prices. Then the bubble burst, with the Nikkei falling from a peak close of 38,915 to a low of 7,054. (It now sits at around 9,000 after 20 years.) In addition, prime real estate has fallen to as little as 10% of 1989 prices.
You would think that 22 years of super-low interest rates and no significant asset appreciation would result in a miserable society, but no visitor to Japan can escape the fact that it remains a very rich and harmonious country. The Japanese have gracefully adapted to a world of slow growth and diminished expectations, aided by their aversion to borrowing money and their habits of thrift.
Americans are not at all like Japanese, but whether or not we have it in us to adjust to a new normal of less leverage and low returns on investment, we are not going to escape the consequences of our own bubble. The U.S. economy was driven for more than two decades by an oversize financial sector leading up to the panic of 2008. The financial sector grew by increasing the availability of consumer credit and lowering its quality, especially in mortgage lending.
Now the U.S. financial services industry is being cut down to size by regulation and litigation, with no end in sight -- a process that was probably long overdue. Banks are learning how dangerous it is to lend money to anyone who actually needs it, especially consumers. It is going to get worse, not better, for households seeking credit. The real choice is whether to live within your means with a good heart, as the Japanese do, or hope the credit bubble can be reinflated.
I would not put my hopes on the latter. "
"Is the US turning Japanese?
Americans may have to get used to a slow-growth economy.
U.S. consumers are now living in a world much like the one the Japanese have been living in for the past 20 years: a world with limited access to credit, little or no appreciation in asset values, slow growth, large government deficits, and a rickety banking system.
The headline story about Japan is that the bubble economy of the 1980s was popped by central bank policy, and through bad policy choices the country has remained mired in deflation and low growth ever since.
That sounds like something we Americans may experience. The point is, though, that people are adaptable and can learn to cope with a no-growth or slow-growth economy.
The Japanese were the envy of the world (and bugaboo of American pundits) during the so-called Bubble Economy of the 1980s, when excess savings and low rates drove a huge run-up in asset prices. Then the bubble burst, with the Nikkei falling from a peak close of 38,915 to a low of 7,054. (It now sits at around 9,000 after 20 years.) In addition, prime real estate has fallen to as little as 10% of 1989 prices.
You would think that 22 years of super-low interest rates and no significant asset appreciation would result in a miserable society, but no visitor to Japan can escape the fact that it remains a very rich and harmonious country. The Japanese have gracefully adapted to a world of slow growth and diminished expectations, aided by their aversion to borrowing money and their habits of thrift.
Americans are not at all like Japanese, but whether or not we have it in us to adjust to a new normal of less leverage and low returns on investment, we are not going to escape the consequences of our own bubble. The U.S. economy was driven for more than two decades by an oversize financial sector leading up to the panic of 2008. The financial sector grew by increasing the availability of consumer credit and lowering its quality, especially in mortgage lending.
Now the U.S. financial services industry is being cut down to size by regulation and litigation, with no end in sight -- a process that was probably long overdue. Banks are learning how dangerous it is to lend money to anyone who actually needs it, especially consumers. It is going to get worse, not better, for households seeking credit. The real choice is whether to live within your means with a good heart, as the Japanese do, or hope the credit bubble can be reinflated.
I would not put my hopes on the latter. "
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