I know, I know, not to take financial advice from a web forum; but any insight if a crash will happen in the next few years since prices are sky high rite now?? Thanx! :beer:
:beer:
:beer:
Is the Real Estate market going to crash anytime soon in So Cal?
- Thread starter Passions
- Start date
the "health" of just about any market or business almost invariably and inevitably looks like this:
http://math.la.asu.edu/~walker/mat170/homework/sine_curves_files/image010.jpg
you just have to guess the distance between the peak and the bottom
:beer:
http://math.la.asu.edu/~walker/mat170/homework/sine_curves_files/image010.jpg
you just have to guess the distance between the peak and the bottom
:beer:
an actual theory going around as far as socal real estate properties is that the higher end properties, 2-3mil+ will flatten out.. and not go up for a while, but in the mean time everything else will go up as it has been... avg house price for all of CA is ~380k (i think that was on rent.com), and property value has gone up 35% in the past 5 years for CA as a whole.
Most likely the housing industry will dip down a little after the Fed begins increasing rates again. But definitely not like a decade ago when housing in SoCal was damn cheap.
Crash is a strong word. I think it will deflate around 10% then steadily rise back up over a few years.
I hope so. The house prices are ridiculous!! The house we're renting (4 bedroom, 3 baths, 2222 sqft) was on the market for one day and they got several interested parties. The landlord put it out there for $739,000. :Q
it depends where it is but thats not unreasonable in a place Santa Monica or Venice or even Culver CIty
Real estate prices rarely fall. They may get stagnant, but rarely fall. Just think, if you paid $100,000 for a house, are you going to sell it for $80,000? Of course not. You'll only drop your price if you are desperate to sell and then, you will drop it as little as possible.
If you're waiting for the prices in SoCal to drop, you're going to be waiting a very long time.
If you're waiting for the prices in SoCal to drop, you're going to be waiting a very long time.
Housing prices will perpetually increase but saying that prices rarely fall is incorrect. The housing market goes through cyclical trends just like the financial market. The main difference is that the highs and lows will always be higher than its previous period of highs and lows.
I'll believe you when you can prove it. I've seen many a portfolios lose 50% of their value in the years past, but never have I seen an entire city or state have it's property values decrease by 50%. Yes, the housing market does have trends: prices go up and then they are flat for awhile. They go up again and stay flat for awhile. Rarely do they go down.
The city of Flint went belly up because GM moved its factories to Mexico, Any city in SoCal is hardly comparble to Flint. There are tons of different industries there and just as many jobs, if one, tow, or 10 companies just up and decided to leave it still wouldnt be a big deal. but since the 90% of the flint's population was working for GM the blue collar workers got owned.
Parts of Connecticut. I work in mortgage lending and CT is one of the states we do business in. It's taken a veritable dump. ONe poor chap that we refinanced bemoaned the fact that his home will probably not recover in his lifetime. You are right though - for the most part it's rare.
It's hard to put a timetable but it probably will stagnate eventually. Heck it did for most of the early 90's.
Ameesh - I don't think he used Flint to argue about real estate prices in So Cal but rather to dispute dirtboy's assertion that they rarely go down. That said, the market in So Cal has been on fire for last few years. An end in sight? Let's hope not
...for my sake.
No because the economy is already in the dumps, California's population is not growing, but demand still greatly outstrips supply. Even when mortgage rates bump back up and slow down value appreciation, that will not have a dramatic effect because it will be mitigated by lower housing starts. And if you're wondering about mortgage payments, even if prices eventually decline, financing will probably then be at a higher rate and you wouldn't be better off vs. today.
Lets not forget the hundreds of houses that just recently burned down. That and increasingly strict fire safety regulations are going to make them more $$$
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