Question Is the cost of RAM going up everywhere?

[DrMrLordX]

Well.. China would enter and supply half of the world, then screw HARD the US and the West by blocking the rare earths supply for their own production.

That already blew up in their faces once, they're not going to mess around like that again.

 

[maddie]

Well.. China would enter and supply half of the world, then screw HARD the US and the West by blocking the rare earths supply for their own production.

I didn't want to go there as it upsets some here. The sanctioning of several US defense firms in the past few days tells me the calculus has changed. I'm shocked so little reporting on this. Has this happened before?

 

[DZero]

That already blew up in their faces once, they're not going to mess around like that again.

Funny story this time won't be the government which blocks it.... it will be the industry itself that will overproduce RAM for their needs and reduces the rare earths to sell. And USA and West won't have any reason to sue since it is legal.

 

[DrMrLordX]

reduces the rare earths to sell.

Ehh. Don't think that would happen. There are too many rare earth suppliers coming online in the next few years for that to be a viable tactic, and I don't think they could ramp DRAM production that heavily to make an impact on their own supply chain organically.

 

[Steltek]

Not sure I follow the logic. Sounds like you don’t think additional supply would result in lower prices, all else equal.

But it will of course be better than if no supply is added. Microsoft and Google would want the RAM you mentioned regardless, so if no supply is added the situation will be even worse, because then they’ll purchase it from somewhere else driving price higher.

It isn't that I don't think that it would make a difference.

Microsoft and Google would undoubtedly slurp up any excess capacity initially (I'd be shocked if they didn't tie in as much production as possible for 12-18 months, just like OpenAI did).

Thus, unless it was a huge supply increase, it might be a year or two after that before consumer DRAM supplies begin to increase. And that is presuming we are talking about DDR5 - if all this happens at the time of DDR6 introduction, all bets are off as the AI companies will want to shift over as they upgrade their data centers.

What I am saying is that any new memory supplier entering the market now would be risking a couple billion dollars while not seeing any possibility of a return on investment until 3-6 years from now.

And, given the peculiar nature of the AI craze (not to mention the past historical cyclical boom/bust nature of the DRAM memory market), I just don't see anyone crazy enough in the current economy to risk jumping on that "invest in a new memory fab" bandwagon anytime soon.

Honestly, the best thing that could happen for us is for OpenAI to loose a lot of money, fire Altman, and have to sell everything they stockpiled that they never needed in the first place.

Well... DDR6 shift might get delayed and focused on servers, client side would wait for more time.

The problem with that is that the memory manufacturers won't just build new fabs for DDR6 -- it is far more cost effective for them to shift their existing fab lines currently producing DD5 over to DDR6. There will be a period of simultaneous DDR5/DDR6 production as they shift (just like there was with DDR4/DDR5), but the fabs will try to quickly shift to DDR6 as soon as DDR6 yields increase to acceptable levels because the manufacturers will be able to charge a lot more money for faster DDR6.

DDR5 memory production will then will then taper off and die, just like DDR4 production did after DDR5 yields were finally maximized.

 

[DZero]

Ehh. Don't think that would happen. There are too many rare earth suppliers coming online in the next few years for that to be a viable tactic, and I don't think they could ramp DRAM production that heavily to make an impact on their own supply chain organically.

Not only DRAM. There are more components like nVME or even boards that gets more expensive. Also I mean the refined stuff, not the rare earth itself. And China has a lot of refined stuff quota.

https://discoveryalert.com.au/china-rare-earth-processing-monopoly-2025-2/

 

[manly]

LOL (don't try this at home!)

Russian Enthusiasts Planning DIY DDR5 Memory Amidst Worldwide Shortage - Slashdot

Amid a global DDR5 shortage and soaring prices, Russian hardware enthusiasts are experimenting with do-it-yourself DDR5 RAM by sourcing empty PCBs and soldering memory chips by hand. Tom's Hardware reports: The idea comes from Russian YouTuber PRO Hi-Tech's Telegram channel, where a local...

hardware.slashdot.org

 

[mindless1]

^ Might be getting hard for them with trade sanctions against tech companies that do business with Russia because reasons.

I faced this recently. Ordered a Mornsun PSU (industrial not PC type) from Digikey but Mornsun is now banned from import to the US because of that. Existing stock already in the US can be sold to US (and Canadian?) buyers once the buyer fills out some ePaperwork.

 

[Fjodor2001]

More pain ahead. DRAM contract prices expected to increase further 50% just in Q1 2026 alone.

DRAM Contract Prices Are Projected to Rise By a Whopping 50% In This Quarter, As Shortages Now Appear to Be Out of Control

DRAM shortages are expected to become more aggressive moving forward as DRAM contract prices could rise by up to 50% in Q1 2026.

wccftech.com

 

[dlerious]

I checked pcpartpicker for 2x16GB kits of DDR5 and some of the lowest priced were Crucial. With Micron getting rid of Crucial, why would I take a chance?

 

[mindless1]

^ Probably why they're lowest priced. They stated warranty for existing products will continue, but how will they fulfill that warranty? Hold back reserve stock? IIRC some of their product tiers have a lifetime warranty.

Hopefully their claim of warranty support isn't just to clear out their stock then "that division went out of business" meaning warranty gone. Granted I haven't had a lot of memory fail, even being someone who had o'c for many years, I didn't push the voltage much higher than stock.

 

[manly]

Micron's market cap is $350B. I wouldn't worry about how they handled a Crucial warranty.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Micron's market cap is $350B. I wouldn't worry about how they handled a Crucial warranty.

Were it so easy.

As the weeks go by, supply will continue to dry up. I've seen Corsair owners having a bad time with RMA. A couple of other brands have told owners they don't have the ram in stock, and they have to wait indefinitely to get it replaced. Best guess is they want you to give up and take a refund because they make much more money selling it than sending it as a replacement.

 

[manly]

Were it so easy.

As the weeks go by, supply will continue to dry up. I've seen Corsair owners having a bad time with RMA. A couple of other brands have told owners they don't have the ram in stock, and they have to wait indefinitely to get it replaced. Best guess is they want you to give up and take a refund because they make much more money selling it than sending it as a replacement.

If I was buying RAM now, I'd probably avoid Crucial. But not because I'm worried about the warranty itself. I would just choose not to support a company that is quitting consumers because they'd rather sleep with Sam Altman.

As for the risk of a bad RMA, that could happen with any company and it's probably more likely for a small manufacturer. (As you know) Micron isn't discontinuing a manufacturing line; they are just killing a consumer division. They have plenty of (unbranded) DRAM if they need to slap a Crucial sticker onto some DIMMs for warranty replacements. Only time will tell, I'm not guaranteeing anything of course.

 

[bba-tcg]

If I was buying RAM now, I'd probably avoid Crucial. But not because I'm worried about the warranty itself. I would just choose not to support a company that is quitting consumers because they'd rather sleep with Sam Altman.

..... Only time will tell, I'm not guaranteeing anything of course.

This is quite disappointing.

 

[Schmide]

I've been snapping up cheep laptop ddr4 to play with. 32gb $85 shipped. + 2 adapters for $15. Free up memory from lesser machines for better.

 

[DavidC1]

There's nothing wrong with having older systems. The silver lining is hopefully the elitist mindset that you need latest fancy schmancy system will die.

My father's PC is from 2008, Pentium Dual Core upgraded to Core 2 Quad(made zero difference). It was Vista until 4 years ago. When that has a problem, I'll probably stick Ubuntu on it. It was laggy, but I dusted it since the CPU was throttling and it's running fine again. If I can get it lasting 30+ years like old school computers I will try.

I play UE5 engine game at 25-30 fps. 10th Gen Pentium + GTX 1080. I paid $50 USD equivalent for the GPU, got it fixed, and went from 8GB to 16GB RAM for $15 back in August, and a $50 1440p monitor. Yea sure it's slightly laggy but it's worth not spending $1000 on it, putting that money on investments instead. Buy DDR5 systems when DDR7 is out. Do you know what is the best solution to a slightly laggy computer? Training yourself and getting used to it.

Now starting to affect sales of other electronics too:

Soaring RAM Prices Have Reportedly Halved Motherboard Sales; Are CPUs Next?

As per a report, due to sky-high DRAM prices, particularly DDR5, the motherboard sales have almost halved in November.

wccftech.com

If the 1/2 sales continue, few of them are going to be insolvent within a year. This is how PC dies. Not by Smartphones, not by ARM, but greedy AI bubble making it too expensive to buy.

Let's not threaten people or suggest murder as a solution. Thanks.

I certainly wouldn't be against this. They are probably related to the Epstein PDFs and deserve it. Also, AI training is mostly done by exploiting less fortunate countries and people. Certainly average people like us would be under capital punishment over much less severe crimes.

 

[DZero]

I play UE5 engine game at 25-30 fps. 10th Gen Pentium + GTX 1080. I paid $50 USD equivalent for the GPU, got it fixed, and went from 8GB to 16GB RAM for $15 back in August, and a $50 1440p monitor. Yea sure it's slightly laggy but it's worth not spending $1000 on it, putting that money on investments instead. Buy DDR5 systems when DDR7 is out. Do you know what is the best solution to a slightly laggy computer? Training yourself and getting used to it.

A GTX 1080 is NOT laggy, seems that the games you play are heavily unoptimized, try to lower specs in some aspects to reach 30 FPS, that's all.

PS: I have a frankenstein PC with Core i7 1280P, 64 GB RAM DDR4, RX 6600M and 512 GB SSD.

 

[DavidC1]

A GTX 1080 is NOT laggy, seems that the games you play are heavily unoptimized, try to lower specs in some aspects to reach 30 FPS, that's all.

PS: I have a frankenstein PC with Core i7 1280P, 64 GB RAM DDR4, RX 6600M and 512 GB SSD.

The game I play is among well optimized for UE5. Unreal Engine 5 is quite demanding. The bad examples are really bad.

 

[aigomorla]

nVME's have started going up in price.

It seems everything and anything related to PC's except keyboards and mouse is going up.

Were really in for dark times now.

 

[Golgatha]

nVME's have started going up in price.

It seems everything and anything related to PC's except keyboards and mouse is going up.

Were really in for dark times now.

Yeah, I panic bought a couple of quality 4TB NVMEs about a month ago to have some spares. They've both at least doubled in price.

 

[DZero]

nVME's have started going up in price.

It seems everything and anything related to PC's except keyboards and mouse is going up.

Were really in for dark times now.

High tier keyboards and mouse are likely to go up eventually
Even webcams and power supplies.

 

[DavidC1]

High tier keyboards and mouse are likely to go up eventually
Even webcams and power supplies.

The transistors used in power components are being affected with things like Nexperia/China issue. I'm seeing many components out of stock more than usual. Because you need power supplies to run those datacenters. So an indirect effect.

 

[DZero]

Chinese SSD skyrocketed hard...

 

[mindless1]

The transistors used in power components are being affected with things like Nexperia/China issue. I'm seeing many components out of stock more than usual. Because you need power supplies to run those datacenters. So an indirect effect.

But how much will that really affect prices? They're somewhat interchangeable jellybean parts so just spitballing, suppose about 8 transistors in a modern independently regulated PC PSU (besides a few little 3 cent ones) at about 40 cents each in volume at today's prices, would be $3.20.