Question Is the cost of RAM going up everywhere?

[iCyborg]

I believe spot prices are in gigabits, so you need to multiply that cost by 8 for a 16GB stick sold at retail.

 

[dullard]

I was casually browsing computer prices for my wife. She doesn't need anything special and I don't have the time to build her one. Last week, a decent mid-range Dell computer was $649.99 on Dell's website (it was fluctuating between $649 and $749 over the last month). Here it is on Best Buy's website. https://www.bestbuy.com/product/del...mory-1tb-storage-black/J3K4L6382V/sku/6622616 This week the exact same computer but with a smaller SDD: $1429.99. https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/des...sktop/useecs1250hbtshmgl#customization-anchor

Dell claimed a 30% business computer increase, but what I'm seeing is much higher on their consumer line. https://www.tomshardware.com/laptop...re-delivery-will-not-guarantee-current-prices

Lenovo is announcing all price quotes end at the end of this year (reading between the lines expect price increases very soon): https://www.trendforce.com/news/202...-15-20-mid-december-lenovo-from-january-2026/

Rumors now are flying of phones and mid-range laptops being limited to 8 GB: https://www.notebookcheck.net/Dell-...sponse-to-rising-memory-prices.1185957.0.html

 

[DrMrLordX]

Samsung has increase its price by 100%, they sell now 16GB DDR5 at 20$ and 16GB DDR4 at 18$, those numbers do not add up with the retail prices, so that s 100% market manipulation.

And? It's supply/demand. Not enough DRAM on the spot market and you get to raise your ask.

 

[DZero]

And? It's supply/demand. Not enough DRAM on the spot market and you get to raise your ask.

Now China can strike the rare earth quotas again and BAM, the increase would be MASSIVE.

 

[manly]

Now China can strike the rare earth quotas again and BAM, the increase would be MASSIVE.

That's completely unrelated to the current RAM pinch.
Most here would agree that Herr Trump should stop trade-warring with the entire world, and China in particular.

Also, rare earth metals aren't actually rare. It's just that the entire supply chain has been willingly yielded to China. Japan had their come to Jesus moment in 2010, and was able to establish meaningful production that they control.


NYT - How Japan Built a Rare-Earth Supply Chain Without China

 

[DZero]

That's completely unrelated to the current RAM pinch.
Most here would agree that Herr Trump should stop trade-warring with the entire world, and China in particular.

Also, rare earth metals aren't actually rare. It's just that the entire supply chain has been willingly yielded to China. Japan had their come to Jesus moment in 2010, and was able to establish meaningful production that they control.


NYT - How Japan Built a Rare-Earth Supply Chain Without China

That's the issue, Japan has their own supply but won't be enough. And add if there are a scarcity of the materials for RAM and other electronics... it might skyrocket on a way that the PC and phone era won't be the same anymore.

 

[Thunder 57]

So is it collusion again or AI? Or a little of both?

Wouldn't be the first time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal

 

[DZero]

So is it collusion again or AI? Or a little of both?

Wouldn't be the first time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal

I can't discard the Chinese factor, because it will turn outright political and that thing would be bad for everyone: ruin the christmas with more prices increases and more scarcity.

 

[dullard]

So is it collusion again or AI? Or a little of both?

Wouldn't be the first time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal

AI and data centers is a big part of it. They are simply buying everything available at a price premium. Just one project, ONE PROJECT, is using 40% of all DRAM produced: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-com...to-the-tune-of-up-to-900-000-wafers-per-month

But politics is a part of it too - especially when it comes to memory. You have tariffs, trade barriers, threatened tariff/barriers, and stopped international trade of things like wafers. Here is just one of many examples of political interference: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...as-nexperia-halts-china-bound-wafer-shipments

 

[Thunder 57]

I can't discard the Chinese factor, because it will turn outright political and that thing would be bad for everyone: ruin the christmas with more prices increases and more scarcity.

Aren't they only flooding the market with DDR4 ATM?

 

[Abwx]

And? It's supply/demand. Not enough DRAM on the spot market and you get to raise your ask.

If that was supply/demand these prices would indicate that supply is scarce but that s not the case, FI in august i bought some Gskill DDR4 Sodimm sticks for 25€/unit, now these Gskill are still available in the same shop but at 90€, likely that the retailer just increased the price to take advantage of this worldwide scam.

 

[dullard]

If that was supply/demand these prices would indicate that supply is scarce but that s not the case

There are two components to supply and demand. Prices reflect BOTH. They do not simply indicate supply levels. Demand is off the charts right now.

 

[aigomorla]

And? It's supply/demand. Not enough DRAM on the spot market and you get to raise your ask.

It is market manipulation.
When the prices at the vendor side all collude and we have no avenue even out of stock ones, that is market manipulation.

Right now ALL DRAM companies, every last one of them that supply consumer ram is bumping prices because OpenAI and other AI firms are buying them all out.

But this is the first time we had a large company (Micron) give us a middle finger and say were not doing consumers anymore.
This allowed Samsung, and Hynix to throw whatever price they want for the same ram sticks.

I'm really worried this is the end of the "P" in PC. You'll rent CPU and RAM time for your home system like AWS. A decent spec machine, which shite latency no matter what they do, will cost £3000/yr rather than £3000 every 5 years.

They already do that on the cell phone side.
They make you think you own it, but u need to be a subscriber for 30months to "payoff" the phone making monthly payments.
But wait.. they make it sound like a good deal telling you, that you can get a new one b4 the 30months, and reset the 30 month payment contract.

No but seriously, the PC was one of the last things i expected to make monthly payments on like car.
And i expect business PC leases are going to be even more popular now.

 

[Abwx]

There are two components to supply and demand. Prices reflect BOTH. They do not simply indicate supply levels. Demand is off the charts right now.

Demand is not off the charts, it s just that a 10% supply deficit can be used as pretext
to rise price by 100%, it works because whatever is sold will find instantly a buyer,
and since some people and business did surely increase their inventory when prices
increased by say 10% this add up to the speculation that AI could eat all available
waffer, thus creating an artificial short supply wich will fuel fear and so on.

 

[Asterox]

If China somehow blocks rare earths now (due the US moves), the impact would be BRUTAL to say the least.

And even if China starts to produce RAM and SSDs for the world and become a monopoly, it won't be enough.

EDIT:

[Insights] Memory Spot Price Update: DDR4 Rally Builds on 16Gb Strength; DDR5, DDR3 See Mild Pullbacks

According to TrendForce's latest memory spot price trend report, regarding DRAM, DDR5 and DDR3 spot prices saw a mild pullback this week as the rapid ...

www.trendforce.com

even if DDR5 is lowering the prices, what happened with DDR3? Is gonna skyrocket?

The point is not that it won't be enough, but it's much more important that the Chinese have recently started producing of DDR5 memory. This is very significant, and in the future it will eat up a lot of the profits that Samsung/SK Hynix and Micron would otherwise take.

CXMT Debuts Its Domestically-Produced DDR5 Memory: 8000 MT/s DDR5 & 10667 MT/s LP5X For Servers, Desktops, & Laptops

CXMT has unveiled its first-ever DDR5 & LPDDR5X memory products for China, bringing in faster speeds & various options.

wccftech.com

 

[DZero]

The point is not that it won't be enough, but it's much more important that the Chinese have recently started producing of DDR5 memory. This is very significant, and in the future it will eat up a lot of the profits that Samsung/SK Hynix and Micron would otherwise take.

CXMT Debuts Its Domestically-Produced DDR5 Memory: 8000 MT/s DDR5 & 10667 MT/s LP5X For Servers, Desktops, & Laptops

CXMT has unveiled its first-ever DDR5 & LPDDR5X memory products for China, bringing in faster speeds & various options.

wccftech.com

Oh boy... That's the other way where the rare earths might go... now this is gonna be interesting to watch.

 

[dullard]

Demand is not off the charts, it s just that a 10% supply deficit can be used as pretext to rise price by 100%, it works because whatever is sold will find instantly a buyer,

Hahahahahahaha. What a funny post. Thanks for the laugh. Please note, if according to you products instantly find a buyer, that is a great measurement of high demand.

TrendForce shows AI-driven DRAM demand surge, creating supply tension...AI-Driven Demand Growth: Increasing AI applications have spurred Server's demand for DRAM...High demand has led to tight DRAM wafer production capacity, with manufacturers transitioning NAND Flash facilities to DRAM....Market Forecast: Though DRAM output is set to rise, demand growth ensures a supply-demand imbalance, with DRAM supply expected to fall short in 2026...DRAM Supply Shortage Will Persist in 2026 Due to Soaring Growth of CSPs’ Procurement Demand

https://www.trendforce.com/research/download/RP251124ZT

cloud service providers (CSPs) are placing orders that upstream memory foundries were unprepared for...Such a phenomenon is almost unprecedented in the history of the memory industry...Having worked in the memory industry for around 30 years, Chen shared that this is the first time he has seen simultaneous shortages in DDR4, DDR5, NAND, and HDD...upstream foundries are gaining confidence from their large orders...AI-driven demand for SSDs is surging, and HDD manufacturers are cutting production or shifting to order-by-order manufacturing modes. This prompts customers who had used HDDs to switch to SSDs, further increasing NAND Flash demand.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251014PD209/dram-hdd-nand-price-capacity-production-adata.html

Both Samsung and SK Hynix confirmed that OpenAI's anticipated demand could grow to 900,000 DRAM wafers monthly, which is an incredible volume that may represent around 40% of total DRAM output.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-com...to-the-tune-of-up-to-900-000-wafers-per-month

This is attributed to the demand for AI consuming the entire memory and storage supply as data center expansion continues.

https://www.techpowerup.com/342660/dram-prices-surge-172-yoy-with-no-signs-of-slowing-down

So to quickly recap: DDR4 and DDR5 pricing has nearly doubled within the past few months. AI infrastructure and cloud service providers have driven demand to unprecedented levels. Manufacturers had been cutting supply to deal with the effects from the COVID overstock, leaving them unprepared for the sudden demand.

https://gamersnexus.net/news/ram-wtf

I could go on and on with links stating a massive demand increase. Heck, just read this title "This Is Insanity': DDR RAM Prices Soar Due to AI Demand"
https://www.pcmag.com/news/this-is-insanity-ddr-ram-prices-soar-due-to-ai-demand

What do you have to contribute to show that there isn't high demand?

 

[dullard]

I pulled the trigger and bought two computers last night. 32 GB RAM each. I wanted to wait until next quarter to see what new CPUs were available. But, with all the major manufacturers announcing price increases starting last weekend, I decided not to wait any longer.

 

[Abwx]

Hahahahahahaha. What a funny post. Thanks for the laugh. Please note, if according to you products instantly find a buyer, that is a great measurement of high demand.

I stated 10% supply deficit, but say that 20% of buyers refuse to buy, then vendors could hold some time on their inventories because the much higher prices will compensate for the 10% lower demand, that s why there s a threshold to get the prices back to previous level, now that the scam wave is at full level even 20% lower sales wont affect it, once created the profit bubble is hard to bust, it would require 40% lower demand to bust it.

 

[dullard]

I stated 10% supply deficit, but say that 20% of buyers refuse to buy, then vendors could hold some time on their inventories because the much higher prices will compensate for the 10% lower demand, that s why there s a threshold to get the prices back to previous level, now that the scam wave is at full level even 20% lower sales wont affect it, once created the profit bubble is hard to bust, it would require 40% lower demand to bust it.

The fact is there is a demand surge. A massive demand surge. That demand is diverting a significant percent of wafers to AI and data centers. That shift creates a small shortage in supply in just about anything that would use a wafer at the same time demand for those items increased.

There simply is no "20% of buyers refusing to buy". Buyers are available for everything produced because demand is so high.

 

[DZero]

The fact is there is a demand surge. A massive demand surge. That demand is diverting a significant percent of wafers to AI and data centers. That shift creates a small shortage in supply in just about anything that would use a wafer at the same time demand for those items increased.

There simply is no "20% of buyers refusing to buy". Buyers are available for everything produced because demand is so high.

The issue is that this time is the government which supports the demand, that's impossible to counter. And only China has for now secured stock for them, after their stock is fulfilled, they might start to sell to others, except the US.

 

[dullard]

The issue is that this time is the government which supports the demand, that's impossible to counter. And only China has for now secured stock for them, after their stock is fulfilled, they might start to sell to others, except the US.

Yes, it is political too. No one that I see is denying that.

 

[DrMrLordX]

It is market manipulation.

Huh?

Right now ALL DRAM companies, every last one of them that supply consumer ram is bumping prices because OpenAI and other AI firms are buying them all out.

Right, that's what you should expect under normal conditions. Unless you think OpenAI is colluding with all the RAM manufacturers or something, instead of . . . just wanting/needing all that DRAM and HBM.

But this is the first time we had a large company (Micron) give us a middle finger and say were not doing consumers anymore.

It's also the first time we've seen someone throw more cash at the memory manufacturers than what the entire retail market can muster.

This allowed Samsung, and Hynix to throw whatever price they want for the same ram sticks.

It doesn't just allow them to do so. They're basically required. DRAM supplies are not fixed. There's a constant need for new product to be flowing to the market to maintain prices. If near-future supplies dry up, people (like Lenovo) start hoarding and existing supplies vanish quickly. The only way to maintain existing supply is to raise prices.

@Abwx that should address your point as well, plus I think you're fabricating that 10% supply deficit number. You're looking at supplies from months ago and not paying attention to what's coming down the road in a few months. Yes, there WAS a DRAM oversupply, but since future supplies are being bought out and future production is being curtailed in favor of HBM, retailers and distributors are reacting today by raising prices. Unless you want them to leave prices static and deal with empty shelves which is what happens when you don't allow prices to rise.

 

[esquared]

So a couple three weeks ago I bought 8GB of DDR4 for my Ryzen pre built, which was shipped with only 8GB. It's been working fine for 2 years and I always meant to add another DIMM to give me 16GB.

The DIMMS was always selling for 15-20 and I wasn't in a rush. But with DDR4 prices going up, I was looking and prices were going up, maybe 30+.
So I found the exact GSkill DIMM I have in the computer for around 19 on Amazon. So I bought it.

Now Amazon sent me a reminder yesterday that if I want another of these DIMMs, the price went up to $63.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07BL2XPJB

 

[DAPUNISHER]

It will get worse before it gets better. https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-com...l-continue-to-go-up-nand-costs-up-246-percent