Is the California Recall Unconstitutional/Fair?

[manly]

I still think you run into a situation where the only people really jazzed about turning in their ballot are the GOP crazies forming at the mouth to see Newsome removed.

You can lead a horse to water, etc.

I don't know how trustworthy they are, but some recent polls suggest recall is getting closer to even odds. In reality, I'm not concerned for Newsom's chances but timing is a factor. This Delta surge is impossible to spin favorably; what I mean is that even if the governor enacted limited policies that bent the curve, people would complain about restrictions, backtracking and confusion. So Newsom has to fight for his political life at a very awkward time, although the surge might taper before the election.

As for Gray Davis, the sole reason he was recalled is because Texas energy companies stole billions from Californians by exploiting a flawed deregulatory scheme championed by previous Gov. Pete Wilson. RINO Arnold happened to be the beneficiary of that, but it could have been one of the other schmucks on the ballot.

It didn't seem necessary before, but from a strategic standpoint, I think the Dems should have put a quality alternative on the ballot for question #2. Said candidate is just a fail-safe and doesn't need to even campaign; they would need some preexisting name recognition to be viable. I don't have any suggestions on a person, but I wish Jerry Brown wasn't termed out.

 

[Sunburn74]

Priority for the legislature should be revamping this process so it never happens again. The more I read about it the more asinine it sounds.

 

[Jhhnn]

I don't know how trustworthy they are, but some recent polls suggest recall is getting closer to even odds. In reality, I'm not concerned for Newsom's chances but timing is a factor. This Delta surge is impossible to spin favorably; what I mean is that even if the governor enacted limited policies that bent the curve, people would complain about restrictions, backtracking and confusion. So Newsom has to fight for his political life at a very awkward time, although the surge might taper before the election.

As for Gray Davis, the sole reason he was recalled is because Texas energy companies stole billions from Californians by exploiting a flawed deregulatory scheme championed by previous Gov. Pete Wilson. RINO Arnold happened to be the beneficiary of that, but it could have been one of the other schmucks on the ballot.

It didn't seem necessary before, but from a strategic standpoint, I think the Dems should have put a quality alternative on the ballot for question #2. Said candidate is just a fail-safe and doesn't need to even campaign; they would need some preexisting name recognition to be viable. I don't have any suggestions on a person, but I wish Jerry Brown wasn't termed out.

That would just encourage the ouster of Newsome & open up winning possibilities for the GOP.

 

[manly]

That would just encourage the ouster of Newsome & open up winning possibilities for the GOP.

I don't run campaigns and I don't know how other voters feel, but I don't see it that way. I'll vote no on the recall, but hypothetically if Jerry Brown was available for question #2, I'd mark off that box. Heck, if it was specifically Jerry, I might even vote yes on the recall if Brown was actually leading in likely voter polls.

Obviously the election is flawed if the electorate can recall a governor, but can only replace him with some unqualified candidate. I'm not entirely against recalls philosophically; but if voters indeed pull that lever, they should at the least have a good option on the table. We saw what happened last time when Californians picked a seemingly OK option amongst a circus of literal turds. Arnold was a disastrous CEO.

I'm not saying you're wrong that putting a prominent Democrat on the ballot weakens Newsom's prospects. It certainly could.

 

[compuwiz1]

Time to end the dynasty rule of California. Browns, Piglosi, Newsom and those who have had too much power for too long. It's fair because Newsom is an asshat, hypocrite. It's also lawful and constitutional. Let's get some fresh blood. My prediction - he loses this. The numbers who want him gone have sharply increased since the petition first qualified. The next Governor of California will be Larry Elder.

 

[fskimospy]

Time to end the dynasty rule of California. Browns, Piglosi, Newsom and those who have had too much power for too long. It's fair because Newsom is an asshat, hypocrite. It's also lawful and constitutional. Let's get some fresh blood. My prediction - he loses this. The numbers who want him gone have sharply increased since the petition first qualified. The next Governor of California will be Larry Elder.

Considering how wrong you were the last two times you predicted Republican victory have you made any changes to how you predict these things?

 

[compuwiz1]

Considering how wrong you were the last two times you predicted Republican victory have you made any changes to how you predict these things?

Da polls! Polls spell trouble for Newsom and have Elder leading the field to replace him. If Newsom loses on the recall question, most likely the voters are going to pick Elder. That's not rocket science... my methodology is pretty simple and sensible.

 

[woolfe9998]

Wife and I just sent our ballots in today. It's important that democrats in CA not skip this. If you live here, please get your ballot in.

 

[woolfe9998]

If Newsom gets tossed, it will be 100% because of this.

Who casts a ballot in this unusually timed election could be pivotal. The UC Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll underscored why: Among registered voters, Republicans were far more likely to say they’d vote than Democrats or independents. Eighty percent of Republican registered voters said they were absolutely certain to vote, compared with only 55 percent of Democrats and about half of independents. As such, likely voters were opposed to removing Newsom by only 3 points, while the spread was much wider among all registered voters — 51 percent were opposed to removing him compared with just 36 percent in favor (in line with the pollster’s findings in early May and late January). In fact, Republicans’ enthusiasm for this race is so high that they make up roughly one-third of the survey’s likely electorate, even though they constitute only about one-quarter of California’s registered voters.

A massive enthusiasm gap between D's and R's. Which does not bode well for this or next year's midterms. This is not a time in our history for democrats to get complacent.

 

[Brainonska511]

If Newsom gets tossed, it will be 100% because of this.



A massive enthusiasm gap between D's and R's. Which does not bode well for this or next year's midterms. This is not a time in our history for democrats to get complacent.

Don't vote, lose power, then complain how democrats couldn't do anything. It's a beautiful cycle of nihilism.

 

[manly]

If Newsom gets tossed, it will be 100% because of this.



A massive enthusiasm gap between D's and R's. Which does not bode well for this or next year's midterms. This is not a time in our history for democrats to get complacent.

I'll link your source, which is an excellent write-up:

Gavin Newsom Has Reason To Worry

Recent polls show the race is tightening and Republican voters are more energized.

fivethirtyeight.com

It's pretty loony that Repugs have zero chance of winning any state-wide election in California, except via a flawed recall process. Newsom has around a 50% approval rating, which usually means comfortable reelection (in this case, just reaffirming the previous election).

 

[Jhhnn]

I don't run campaigns and I don't know how other voters feel, but I don't see it that way. I'll vote no on the recall, but hypothetically if Jerry Brown was available for question #2, I'd mark off that box. Heck, if it was specifically Jerry, I might even vote yes on the recall if Brown was actually leading in likely voter polls.

Obviously the election is flawed if the electorate can recall a governor, but can only replace him with some unqualified candidate. I'm not entirely against recalls philosophically; but if voters indeed pull that lever, they should at the least have a good option on the table. We saw what happened last time when Californians picked a seemingly OK option amongst a circus of literal turds. Arnold was a disastrous CEO.

I'm not saying you're wrong that putting a prominent Democrat on the ballot weakens Newsom's prospects. It certainly could.

Have you considered the idea that anybody who votes to remove Newsom probably thinks Elder is a great choice? If Newsom is ousted then Elder's well oiled machine will likely give him the most votes on becoming the replacement. Fantasy scenarios aside, that's the real choice.

 

[Jhhnn]

Da polls! Polls spell trouble for Newsom and have Elder leading the field to replace him. If Newsom loses on the recall question, most likely the voters are going to pick Elder. That's not rocket science... my methodology is pretty simple and sensible.

Gawd. Elder is straight up Trumpublican, not really a big seller at all in CA. Once it becomes clear that's the actual choice, Newsom or Elder, he'll likely get his ass kicked. Universal postage paid mail in balloting makes it easy for Dems & other sensible people to defend their turf, stop Elder & his radical right wing agenda. They don't even have to go anywhere.

 

[manly]

Have you considered the idea that anybody who votes to remove Newsom probably thinks Elder is a great choice? If Newsom is ousted then Elder's well oiled machine will likely give him the most votes on becoming the replacement. Fantasy scenarios aside, that's the real choice.

Overly simplistic viewpoint, because it's a circus of candidates to replace Newsom. It's not Newsom vs. Elder, but more like Newsom vs. 3 Republican candidates. Honestly, I don't even know who the fuck Larry Elder is. We all know that in 2021, no Republican candidate gets elected statewide in a standard election. Also, the essential question is whether enough people vote to accurately reflect the will of the people. Not whether Californians are internally debating whether to choose Newsom or Elder.

Look, I don't disagree that running a prominent Democrat as an insurance policy could be bad for Newsom. My point is the current setup is bad for Democrats and California, because we're betting the farm on Newsom. From a game theory standpoint, we have one shot at holding onto the governorship when you could in fact have two shots. And although you call it a fantasy scenario, there's nothing in the rules that prohibits a prominent Democrat from running. It's just that the party has chosen against it for reasons you've suggested. I named Jerry Brown only because he's a slam dunk, not because he's actually eligible for another term. I'd have to look over a short list of prominent Democrats statewide, but people like Karen Bass or maybe Barbara Lee are not household names. One would assume that with approx. 30M adults statewide, we'd have no problem finding one Democrat that could beat Larry Elder.

 

[emperus]

Overly simplistic viewpoint, because it's a circus of candidates to replace Newsom. It's not Newsom vs. Elder, but more like Newsom vs. 3 Republican candidates. Honestly, I don't even know who the fuck Larry Elder is. We all know that in 2021, no Republican candidate gets elected statewide in a standard election. Also, the essential question is whether enough people vote to accurately reflect the will of the people. Not whether Californians are internally debating whether to choose Newsom or Elder.

Look, I don't disagree that running a prominent Democrat as an insurance policy could be bad for Newsom. My point is the current setup is bad for Democrats and California, because we're betting the farm on Newsom. From a game theory standpoint, we have one shot at holding onto the governorship when you could in fact have two shots. And although you call it a fantasy scenario, there's nothing in the rules that prohibits a prominent Democrat from running. It's just that the party has chosen against it for reasons you've suggested. I named Jerry Brown only because he's a slam dunk, not because he's actually eligible for another term. I'd have to look over a short list of prominent Democrats statewide, but people like Karen Bass or maybe Barbara Lee are not household names. One would assume that with approx. 30M adults statewide, we'd have no problem finding one Democrat that could beat Larry Elder.

The process is very undermocratic. You need majority support to get keep the current Gov. but only plurality to elect a new one in?

 

[Jhhnn]

Overly simplistic viewpoint, because it's a circus of candidates to replace Newsom. It's not Newsom vs. Elder, but more like Newsom vs. 3 Republican candidates. Honestly, I don't even know who the fuck Larry Elder is. We all know that in 2021, no Republican candidate gets elected statewide in a standard election. Also, the essential question is whether enough people vote to accurately reflect the will of the people. Not whether Californians are internally debating whether to choose Newsom or Elder.

Look, I don't disagree that running a prominent Democrat as an insurance policy could be bad for Newsom. My point is the current setup is bad for Democrats and California, because we're betting the farm on Newsom. From a game theory standpoint, we have one shot at holding onto the governorship when you could in fact have two shots. And although you call it a fantasy scenario, there's nothing in the rules that prohibits a prominent Democrat from running. It's just that the party has chosen against it for reasons you've suggested. I named Jerry Brown only because he's a slam dunk, not because he's actually eligible for another term. I'd have to look over a short list of prominent Democrats statewide, but people like Karen Bass or maybe Barbara Lee are not household names. One would assume that with approx. 30M adults statewide, we'd have no problem finding one Democrat that could beat Larry Elder.

Obfuscate & fantasize some more. Elder is a prominent & successful right wing celebrity & media grifter, much loved by CA conservatives. None of the rest have that cachet. He's leading the pack, & that's all he has to do if Newsom is ousted. On the current trajectory, the only way to prevent him winning is to keep Newsom. I have little doubt that a majority of voters will see it that way.

 

[Jhhnn]

The process is very undermocratic. You need majority support to get keep the current Gov. but only plurality to elect a new one in?

Sad but true. It's a peculiarity of the state constitution.

 

[fskimospy]

Da polls! Polls spell trouble for Newsom and have Elder leading the field to replace him. If Newsom loses on the recall question, most likely the voters are going to pick Elder. That's not rocket science... my methodology is pretty simple and sensible.

The polls indicate Newsom will win though. In the past you defied the polls and were repeatedly wrong. What’s different this time?

 

[Jaskalas]

Have you considered the idea that anybody who votes to remove Newsom probably thinks Elder is a great choice? If Newsom is ousted then Elder's well oiled machine will likely give him the most votes on becoming the replacement. Fantasy scenarios aside, that's the real choice.

Volatile California governor recall has Democrats nervous about Feinstein seat

Decent odds a Republican Governor could replace 88 year old Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
California really failed when they put someone that frail into office.

 

[Jhhnn]

Volatile California governor recall has Democrats nervous about Feinstein seat

Decent odds a Republican Governor could replace 88 year old Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
California really failed when they put someone that frail into office.

All the more reason for Dems to keep Newsom, right?

 

[kt]

Wife and I just sent our ballots in today. It's important that democrats in CA not skip this. If you live here, please get your ballot in.

When did they send out the ballots? We haven't received ours yet.

 

[woolfe9998]

When did they send out the ballots? We haven't received ours yet.

We got ours yesterday. Was just talking to my sister and she says they haven't gotten theirs yet. So apparently not everyone is getting it at the same time.

 

[imported_tajmahal]

Don't forget Rose Bird in the litany of ousted assholes.

"Bird was removed in the November 4, 1986 election by a margin of 67% to 33%"

 

[theeedude]

If recall wins, replacement will be recalled after 2 month waiting period.

 

[Jaskalas]

All the more reason for Dems to keep Newsom, right?

More reason?
There was never a reason to remove in the first place.