Siddhartha
Lifer
- Oct 17, 1999
- 12,505
- 3
- 81
So far they all sound like versions of Ronald Reagan and George W Bush without the reality of actually having to govern a country.
So far they all sound like versions of Ronald Reagan and George W Bush without the reality of actually having to govern a country.
Siddhartha
Lifer
- Oct 17, 1999
- 12,505
- 3
- 81
This is the kind of hyperbole that I have mentioned in other posts. Really how is Mr Obama a "totaltarian"?
Bitek
Lifer
- Aug 2, 2001
- 10,676
- 5,239
- 136
Of course he's in, and likely to win. R's don't have a candidate for him to run against. Palin is a joke, Paul can't win his own party, Gingrich..ha! Romney? The only half viable candidate and he's weak.
Its 2010, they have no one now, and unless some shining star comes out of the woodwork during the midterms, they got nothing. Besides, the party is too fractured and disorganized to mount a solid challenge.
The economy will likely to still be growing, Armageddon will not have happened, and R's will still have no ideas to run on (other than Obama sucks socialist ass.)
The biggest factors I see currently is the tax increases and entitlement cuts that will be proposed in 2011, and how the people react to that. Otherwise its some unseen event that Obama completely mishandles (like Katrina for Bush.)
Most likely its going to go like Clinton v Dole or Bush v Kerry.
Its 2010, they have no one now, and unless some shining star comes out of the woodwork during the midterms, they got nothing. Besides, the party is too fractured and disorganized to mount a solid challenge.
The economy will likely to still be growing, Armageddon will not have happened, and R's will still have no ideas to run on (other than Obama sucks socialist ass.)
The biggest factors I see currently is the tax increases and entitlement cuts that will be proposed in 2011, and how the people react to that. Otherwise its some unseen event that Obama completely mishandles (like Katrina for Bush.)
Most likely its going to go like Clinton v Dole or Bush v Kerry.
Bitek
Lifer
- Aug 2, 2001
- 10,676
- 5,239
- 136
No its not. It will be here soon. They have got about a year to get their shit together before the '12 primary season starts. Plus they have to get thru the midterms, and before that even decide if the Tea baggers are in the GOP or a competitor to the GOP. Obama announced in Feb of 07. End of 2011 will start the primaries, and any contenders should be in full gear by summer 2011. All of this they will have to do with a fractured party amidst steadily improving economic indicators.
2012 will be a rebuilding year save the unexpected.
if 2 years mattered as much as you're suggesting, the 2008 elections would have been a brawl between Rudy and Hillary.
ericlp
Diamond Member
- Dec 24, 2000
- 6,137
- 225
- 106
yep...
get back to us when the R's have their candidate. More then likely pailin will be on the ticket and my prediction will be another easy win for Obama.
Siddhartha
Lifer
- Oct 17, 1999
- 12,505
- 3
- 81
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100415...Ec2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yeQRzbGsDYXAtZ2ZrcG9sbG9i
AP-GfK Poll: Obama slips, other Dems slide, too
By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer Liz Sidoti, Ap National Political Writer 2 hrs 16 mins ago
WASHINGTON President Barack Obama's national standing has slipped to a new low after his victory on the historic health care overhaul, even in the face of growing signs of economic revival, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll.
The survey shows the political terrain growing rockier for Obama and congressional Democrats heading into midterm elections, boosting Republican hopes for a return to power this fall.
Just 49 percent of people now approve of the job Obama's doing overall, and less than that 44 percent like the way he's handled health care and the economy. Last September, Obama hit a low of 50 percent in job approval before ticking a bit higher. His high-water mark as president was 67 percent in February of last year, just after he took office.
The news is worse for other Democrats. For the first time this year, about as many Americans approve of congressional Republicans as Democrats 38 percent to 41 percent and neither has an edge when it comes to the party voters want controlling Congress. Democrats also have lost their advantage on the economy; people now trust both parties equally on that, another first in 2010.
Roughly half want to fire their own congressman.
Adding to Democratic woes, people have grown increasingly opposed to the health care overhaul in the weeks since it became law; 50 percent now oppose it, the most negative measure all year. People also have a dim view of the economy though employers have begun to add jobs, including 162,000 in March. Just as many people rated the economy poor this month 76 percent as did last July.
And it could get worse for Democrats: One-third of those surveyed consider themselves tea party supporters, and three-quarters of those people are overwhelmingly Republicans or right-leaning independents. That means they are more likely to vote with the GOP in this fall's midterms, when energized base voters will be crucial amid the typical low turnout of a non-presidential election year.
With the electorate angry, Republicans enthusiastic and Democrats seemingly less so, Obama's party increasingly fears it could lose control of the House, if not the Senate, in his first midterms. The GOP, conversely, is emboldened as voters warm to its opposition to much of the president's agenda.
On the minds of Democrats and Republicans alike: the Democratic bloodletting in 1994, when the GOP seized control of Congress two years after Bill Clinton was elected president. But the less-dispiriting news for Democrats is that it's only April a long way to November in politics.
Still, persuading change-minded voters to keep the status quo will be no easy task given that most people call details of the health care overhaul murky and that the unemployment rate is unlikely to fall below 9 percent by November.
The key for Obama and his party: firing up moribund Democratic voters while appealing to independents who are splitting their support after back-to-back national elections in which they tilted heavily toward Democrats and caused the power shift.
None of that will be easy.
Just listen to independent voters who typically decide elections.
"He's moving the country into a socialized country," Jim Fall, 73, of Wrightwood, Calif., said of the president. He worries that Obama is too "radical left wing" and that government has grown too big, saying: "He is constantly in our lives more and more and more and more."
Fall was just as down on the Democratic-controlled Congress: "They're horrible. I think all they do is talk," he said, adding that Republicans acted no differently when they had power: "Just spend and spend and spend."
In Spokane, Wash., Angela Hardin, 43, was just as disapproving.
"I don't like what's going on," the small business owner said. "He is just making a huge mess out of everything. ... He's all over the map. It's like, 'Slow down! Breathe! Think!'"
As for Democrats in Congress, she said: "I'm not happy with them." Republicans, she said, may be better. But she's really ambivalent toward any of them: "It's just beyond me how they can sit up there with all of their college degrees and fight like they were in middle school."
The new poll findings also show:
Equal percentages of Democrats 87 percent approve of Obama's job performance as Republicans 88 percent disapprove. Independents are about split, 50 percent disapprove to 47 percent approve. And, when it comes to Congress, 91 percent of Republicans, 65 percent of independents and even 51 percent of Democrats disapprove.
The tea party coalition remains fuzzy to most people; only 16 percent say they know a great deal or a lot about this political phenomenon born a year ago.
Obama remains a polarizing figure, as does Congress.
"He's trying to do what he said we was going to do," said David Jeter of Los Angeles, 51, who votes Democratic and co-owns a lighting business. Jeter credits Congress with passing health care but wonders: "Now what will they do? ... I watch Congress with bated breath, but I don't expect that anything is going to radically alter my life."
A New York Times/CBS News poll released Thursday found that an overwhelming majority of tea party supporters believe Obama doesn't share the values of most Americans or understand the problems of people like them.
The poll found that people who identify themselves as tea party backers nearly one in five Americans are wealthier and better educated than the general public and tend to be white, male, married and older than 45. They tend to be Republican, but more conservative than Republicans in general, the poll found. They tend to see Obama as "very liberal" and are "angry" rather than merely dissatisfied with Washington.
Though former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin draws raucous cheers at tea party rallies, a plurality of tea party supporters see her as unqualified to be president, according to the poll.
The AP-GfK Poll was conducted April 7-12, 2010 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media. It involved interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide on both landline and cellular telephones. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
The Times/CBS News poll was conducted April 5-12. Its margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
AP-GfK Poll: Obama slips, other Dems slide, too
By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer Liz Sidoti, Ap National Political Writer 2 hrs 16 mins ago
WASHINGTON President Barack Obama's national standing has slipped to a new low after his victory on the historic health care overhaul, even in the face of growing signs of economic revival, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll.
The survey shows the political terrain growing rockier for Obama and congressional Democrats heading into midterm elections, boosting Republican hopes for a return to power this fall.
Just 49 percent of people now approve of the job Obama's doing overall, and less than that 44 percent like the way he's handled health care and the economy. Last September, Obama hit a low of 50 percent in job approval before ticking a bit higher. His high-water mark as president was 67 percent in February of last year, just after he took office.
The news is worse for other Democrats. For the first time this year, about as many Americans approve of congressional Republicans as Democrats 38 percent to 41 percent and neither has an edge when it comes to the party voters want controlling Congress. Democrats also have lost their advantage on the economy; people now trust both parties equally on that, another first in 2010.
Roughly half want to fire their own congressman.
Adding to Democratic woes, people have grown increasingly opposed to the health care overhaul in the weeks since it became law; 50 percent now oppose it, the most negative measure all year. People also have a dim view of the economy though employers have begun to add jobs, including 162,000 in March. Just as many people rated the economy poor this month 76 percent as did last July.
And it could get worse for Democrats: One-third of those surveyed consider themselves tea party supporters, and three-quarters of those people are overwhelmingly Republicans or right-leaning independents. That means they are more likely to vote with the GOP in this fall's midterms, when energized base voters will be crucial amid the typical low turnout of a non-presidential election year.
With the electorate angry, Republicans enthusiastic and Democrats seemingly less so, Obama's party increasingly fears it could lose control of the House, if not the Senate, in his first midterms. The GOP, conversely, is emboldened as voters warm to its opposition to much of the president's agenda.
On the minds of Democrats and Republicans alike: the Democratic bloodletting in 1994, when the GOP seized control of Congress two years after Bill Clinton was elected president. But the less-dispiriting news for Democrats is that it's only April a long way to November in politics.
Still, persuading change-minded voters to keep the status quo will be no easy task given that most people call details of the health care overhaul murky and that the unemployment rate is unlikely to fall below 9 percent by November.
The key for Obama and his party: firing up moribund Democratic voters while appealing to independents who are splitting their support after back-to-back national elections in which they tilted heavily toward Democrats and caused the power shift.
None of that will be easy.
Just listen to independent voters who typically decide elections.
"He's moving the country into a socialized country," Jim Fall, 73, of Wrightwood, Calif., said of the president. He worries that Obama is too "radical left wing" and that government has grown too big, saying: "He is constantly in our lives more and more and more and more."
Fall was just as down on the Democratic-controlled Congress: "They're horrible. I think all they do is talk," he said, adding that Republicans acted no differently when they had power: "Just spend and spend and spend."
In Spokane, Wash., Angela Hardin, 43, was just as disapproving.
"I don't like what's going on," the small business owner said. "He is just making a huge mess out of everything. ... He's all over the map. It's like, 'Slow down! Breathe! Think!'"
As for Democrats in Congress, she said: "I'm not happy with them." Republicans, she said, may be better. But she's really ambivalent toward any of them: "It's just beyond me how they can sit up there with all of their college degrees and fight like they were in middle school."
The new poll findings also show:
Equal percentages of Democrats 87 percent approve of Obama's job performance as Republicans 88 percent disapprove. Independents are about split, 50 percent disapprove to 47 percent approve. And, when it comes to Congress, 91 percent of Republicans, 65 percent of independents and even 51 percent of Democrats disapprove.
The tea party coalition remains fuzzy to most people; only 16 percent say they know a great deal or a lot about this political phenomenon born a year ago.
Obama remains a polarizing figure, as does Congress.
"He's trying to do what he said we was going to do," said David Jeter of Los Angeles, 51, who votes Democratic and co-owns a lighting business. Jeter credits Congress with passing health care but wonders: "Now what will they do? ... I watch Congress with bated breath, but I don't expect that anything is going to radically alter my life."
A New York Times/CBS News poll released Thursday found that an overwhelming majority of tea party supporters believe Obama doesn't share the values of most Americans or understand the problems of people like them.
The poll found that people who identify themselves as tea party backers nearly one in five Americans are wealthier and better educated than the general public and tend to be white, male, married and older than 45. They tend to be Republican, but more conservative than Republicans in general, the poll found. They tend to see Obama as "very liberal" and are "angry" rather than merely dissatisfied with Washington.
Though former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin draws raucous cheers at tea party rallies, a plurality of tea party supporters see her as unqualified to be president, according to the poll.
The AP-GfK Poll was conducted April 7-12, 2010 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media. It involved interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide on both landline and cellular telephones. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
The Times/CBS News poll was conducted April 5-12. Its margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Bitek
Lifer
- Aug 2, 2001
- 10,676
- 5,239
- 136
True enough, you never know what will happen. The point I'm really getting at is that all the players were pretty much in place by then and had some sort of recognition. Obama was a noobie, but he had already made a big splash in 2004, and rolled into the Senate in 2006. You already knew he would be right in it if he decided to be.
Otherwise, the primaries are a rehash of last years losers. Rudy, Thompson, Huckleberry, Paul, McCain. None of those guys will be there save Paul, and I don't think he can win the R primary. Will draw lots of support, but the party will freak out on him like the Dems did on Dean.
Romney and Palin are the only ones that could do it, save some yet unknown darkhorse that could actually unite a fractured party into victory. Given the extremists "brewing" (lols) in the Tea Party and the low party favoribility among the less partisan, I don't see this likely of happening within the next year or so. Maybe by 2014-16, but the clock is just winding down too fast. It can always happen, but the odds are pretty grim.
Romney is the historically-likely candidate (the GOP has a habit of giving the nomination to whoever's "waited their turn," so to speak, and the consensus seems to be that right now, that person is Romney), but I wouldn't count a slew of GOP governors out just because they're not national names right now. people like Mitch Daniels or Tim Pawlenty.
I really don't think Sarah Palin is going to run. her actions post-2008 have screamed "in it for the money." if she was serious about it, she wouldn't have taken the job at Fox News over spending a couple years building a support network of donors and campaign workers. if she does run, I'd make a $100 bet that she doesn't win more than a small handful of primaries (like, Alaska and Wyoming)
the tea party movement itself is, I think, unsustainable... look back to 2008 as a guide. as much as the Democratic Party likes to paint Rush and Hannity as the de-facto leaders of the GOP, when it came time for actual Main St USA republicans to vote, their candidates (Romney, Huckabee, Thompson) all fell pathetically flat.
Bitek
Lifer
- Aug 2, 2001
- 10,676
- 5,239
- 136
Yeah, I think you are pretty much spot on. Romney will be a real wild card. He seems pretty fake, had that aura in 2008, and I'll bet it will be back. Going with that, he seems like he's just buying his way in, I wonder how much real support he has. Given the recent straw poll, not too great given the effort he put into it.
Another wildcard w/ him is the Mormonism. It kinda came up in 08, but he was never really strong, so I think some punches were pulled. I'm not so sure about the religious (evangelical) right voting in force for a mormon.
Another unknown Gov may have a better shot, but they've got some steep slopes to climb. Will be interesting to watch.
The results of the midterms might push things too. Fights like Christ/Rubio, and the overall result. Where the momentum is at will likel carry into the primaries. If Rubio and other hardliners win, may be even more difficult for Romney.
jonks
Lifer
- Feb 7, 2005
- 13,918
- 20
- 81
I don't know if he's going to win or not, but how about some perspective? Take Reagan for example: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-presapp0605-31.html
His approval sank steadily for 2 straight years after being elected, and his own people were CERTAIN he was a one-termer at that point. And then the economy began to recover. So the only correct answer is, it's too soon to tell.
His approval sank steadily for 2 straight years after being elected, and his own people were CERTAIN he was a one-termer at that point. And then the economy began to recover. So the only correct answer is, it's too soon to tell.
ProfJohn
Lifer
- Jul 28, 2006
- 18,161
- 7
- 0
Reagan's drop in popularity was related entirely to the poor state of the economy.
Obama's drop in popularity goes beyond just a poor economy. It is unlikely that a recovering economy will be enough to return Obama's popularity.
Bitek
Lifer
- Aug 2, 2001
- 10,676
- 5,239
- 136
-FDR was in for the first half of WW2, Truman was there at the end of it. (FDR died!)
-LBJ was sort of president twice but he was only elected once. Does that count?
-Gerald Ford, I think. I don't know.
-George HW Bush had a war but it ended before his term was up. He was not re-elected.
Good point though. I don't know if it will apply to Obama though since Iraq and Afghanistan are sort of a joke. They're not on the same scale as the previous wars. Vietnam had about 60,000 dead US soldiers, Iraq only has about 5,000 so far. I really don't think Obama will win this next one.
Bitek
Lifer
- Aug 2, 2001
- 10,676
- 5,239
- 136
I think they could elect a used Kleenex and it would have more personality and more boogie than our current President elect.
Nemesis 1
Lifer
- Dec 30, 2006
- 11,366
- 2
- 0
ProfJohn
Lifer
- Jul 28, 2006
- 18,161
- 7
- 0
Sounds like you are throwing things out there hoping that one of them sticks.
In April 1990 no one knew who Bill Clinton was. He didn't even win a primary until Super Tuesday.
In April 2006 Obama was also a nobody. He did give the keynote at the 2004 convention, but giving the keynote is not a stepping stone to the Presidency.
hal2kilo
Lifer
- Feb 24, 2009
- 26,275
- 12,438
- 136
I wouldn't say he was a "nobody" in 2006... http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,1101061023,00.html
though that goes against the Obama mythology that he was an unknown community organizer who picked himself up by his bootstraps and went from being a nothing to president in the span of about 6 months.
ProfJohn
Lifer
- Jul 28, 2006
- 18,161
- 7
- 0
My bad
I guess a better way of putting it would be to say that on a national level Obama wasn't well known beyond the beltway media. If you had taken a poll of the public at large and asked them if they thought Obama would be the next President most of them would have said "Obama who?"
The most important thing to keep in mind is that there are Republicans out there who aren't very well known but could easily become national figures in the next 2+ years.
Governors like Rick Perry of Texas and Chris Christie of New Jersey are two that come to mind. Texas is one of the few bright points during this recession and if Perry can convince people that he can replicate that success then a lot of people will get behind him. And Christie is doing some amazing things in New Jersey and could quickly become a media super star if he succeeds in getting the NJ government back into good fiscal condition.
Also, if Christie can become popular enough in the state to deliver it to the Republican party, or even make it close, then he becomes the front runner for at least the VP spot.
First
Lifer
- Jun 3, 2002
- 10,518
- 271
- 136
My bad
I guess a better way of putting it would be to say that on a national level Obama wasn't well known beyond the beltway media. If you had taken a poll of the public at large and asked them if they thought Obama would be the next President most of them would have said "Obama who?"
The most important thing to keep in mind is that there are Republicans out there who aren't very well known but could easily become national figures in the next 2+ years.
Governors like Rick Perry of Texas and Chris Christie of New Jersey are two that come to mind. Texas is one of the few bright points during this recession and if Perry can convince people that he can replicate that success then a lot of people will get behind him. And Christie is doing some amazing things in New Jersey and could quickly become a media super star if he succeeds in getting the NJ government back into good fiscal condition.
Also, if Christie can become popular enough in the state to deliver it to the Republican party, or even make it close, then he becomes the front runner for at least the VP spot.
It's going to be hilarious adding 2010 and 2012 to your list of election prediction blunders alongside 2006 and 2008.
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