Is Netanyuhu nuts?

[Lemon law]

Its just hard for me to believe, that Netanyuhu and anyone sane inside of Israel could seriously consider an pre-emptive strike on Iran.

But here it is from the pages of Harretz, just such a plan enfolding.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-editio...de-cabinet-to-support-attack-on-iran-1.393214

There is no doubt that Israel could seriously wound but not kill Iran, especially if Israel secured a Saudi Arabia attack route. But its almost certain to result in a shut down of Persian gulf and the worse foreign policy disaster for the USA in history. Which would result in an instant depression for every oil dependent industrialized nation on earth.

Is Netanyuhu that crazy and insecure that he would contemplate such an attack over his sour grapes that the Pals received UNESCO recognition. Something that has nothing to do with Iran at all.

 

[irishScott]

Its just hard for me to believe, that Netanyuhu and anyone sane inside of Israel could seriously consider an pre-emptive strike on Iran.

But here it is from the pages of Harretz, just such a plan enfolding.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-editio...de-cabinet-to-support-attack-on-iran-1.393214

There is no doubt that Israel could seriously wound but not kill Iran, especially if Israel secured a Saudi Arabia attack route. But its almost certain to result in a shut down of Persian gulf and the worse foreign policy disaster for the USA in history. Which would result in an instant depression for every oil dependent industrialized nation on earth.

Is Netanyuhu that crazy and insecure that he would contemplate such an attack over his sour grapes that the Pals received UNESCO recognition. Something that has nothing to do with Iran at all.

You know, I almost want Iran to take on the 5th fleet. Just to shut you up on this. Iran does not have the military capacity to close the Persian gulf if the US doesn't want it to. Period.

 

[Howard]

You know, I almost want Iran to take on the 5th fleet. Just to shut you up on this. Iran does not have the military capacity to close the Persian gulf if the US doesn't want it to. Period.

How good do you feel when mcowen is wrong? It really doesn't mean much, does it?

 

[irishScott]

How good do you feel when mcowen is wrong? It really doesn't mean much, does it?

Meh, McOwen at least has the decency to be straightforward about it. LL tries to adopt this high-minded holier-than-though guru tone that's insulting even to the few that agree with him.

It's annoying. We need a votekick system. 80% majority gets you banned for a week.

 

[iGas]

You know, I almost want Iran to take on the 5th fleet. Just to shut you up on this. Iran does not have the military capacity to close the Persian gulf if the US doesn't want it to. Period.

Are you on crack?

The economy of the US and most of Western countries are on shaky ground, due to the current Greece financial problem.

Going to war with Iran would wreak havoc on everyone, because the Persian Gulf is no longer secure and the US must deploy more war ships in the region to protect oil tankers. Even with war ships protection the Persian Gulf may be too insecure for commercial traffic.

Here is a history lesson for you.

The Iran/Iraq War drove oil to higher price than what we have seen in the recent crest, interest rate went out of control, and unemployment in many part of the Western world were in the double digit.

That said, the saber rattling could be Netanyuhu attention diversion for the East Jerusalem plan to build 2000 new housing units for Israelis.

Israel poses a much greater threat to its neighbours than the other way around [GALLO/GETTY]

 

[llee]

Well the Israelis have done similar things before, most notably the six day war. You can also look to the two separate attacks against Iraq's Osirak nuclear facility.

 

[cubby1223]

Is Netanyuhu that crazy and insecure that he would contemplate such an attack over his sour grapes that the Pals received UNESCO recognition.

Only you would come to this conclusion.

Do you never question why no one takes your opinions seriously?

 

[woolfe9999]

Well the Israelis have done similar things before, most notably the six day war. You can also look to the two separate attacks against Iraq's Osirak nuclear facility.

This isn't even remotely similar except in concept. It's twenty fold more difficult operationally. The cost-benefit for Israel of such an attack is not there. They couldn't set Iran back by more than a few years in even the best case scenario. Wouldn't be worth the international fallout. Israel is not going to attack Iran, period.

These periodic "leaks" of Israel's intention to attack Iran crack me up. There was one about 3-4 years ago where the "unnamed Israeli source" claimed that they were considering using a tactical nuke to break the Natanz bunker. I remember anti-Israel posters were in a tizzy about it at the time, just like LL is about this one.

Make no mistake, Israel is "leaking" these tidbits to the press. But Israel isn't in the habit of intentionally leaking its military plans to the world at large because the Israelis aren't stupid. It should be pretty clear to anyone with half a brain why these "leaks" are occurring and what their true purpose is.

- wolf

 

[Doppel]

Irish is right, if bombs started dropping Iran has no power to shut down anything but its own domestic production.

 

[Orignal Earl]

You know, I almost want Iran to take on the 5th fleet. Just to shut you up on this. Iran does not have the military capacity to close the Persian gulf if the US doesn't want it to. Period.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Iraq_War#1984:_.27Tanker_War.27_in_Persian_Gulf

It wasn't an easy task for the Navy even with the Soviets help and Iran fighting a war with Iraq at the same time.
What all is different now?

 

[MotF Bane]

It's annoying. We need a votekick system. 80% majority gets you banned for a week.

I like it.

t

 

[Orignal Earl]

I like it.

t

In a month there would be no posters left in PnN

 

[Macamus Prime]

Iran would get it's fucking teeth kicked in.

Everyone seems to think Iran is some sort of super power in the middle east. The only country that does whatever the fuck it wants (including killing it's own allies) is Israel.

 

[EagleKeeper]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Iraq_War#1984:_.27Tanker_War.27_in_Persian_Gulf

It wasn't an easy task for the Navy even with the Soviets help and Iran fighting a war with Iraq at the same time.
What all is different now?

Different target.

More of a willingness to go after Iran for attempting to hold the world hostage.

 

[Orignal Earl]

Different target.

More of a willingness to go after Iran for attempting to hold the world hostage.

I'm pretty sure if any of this became a reality, it won't be over for a long time.
Once you start blowing up Iranians, your going to see all those young Iranians start burning their ipods and vowing to fight to the death.
Then Russia and China get pissed about their energy treaties.
And well..who knows? a million stories play out.

 

[Ninjahedge]

No, basically it would show that an ill-defined war with no clear line (compare: Axis vs Allies) will never yield clear results.

I think this is Netan basically putting out all his cards to see what the possibilities are. If he actually PLAYS this card, it is definitely not smart, but it is still a card he holds.

 

[irishScott]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War#1984:_.27Tanker_War.27_in_Persian_Gulf

It wasn't an easy task for the Navy even with the Soviets help and Iran fighting a war with Iraq at the same time.
What all is different now?

From your own link:

The United States had threatened several times to go to war if the Strait of Hormuz was closed.[83] For this reason, the Iranians refused to rise to the bait, and so limited their attacks in retaliation to Iraqi shipping.[84] Iran attacked tankers carrying Iraqi oil from Kuwait and then any tanker of the Persian Gulf states supporting Iraq. The air and small boat attacks did very little damage to Persian Gulf state economies and Iran just moved its shipping port to Larak Island in the strait of Hormuz.[85]

The only real damage was from Iraqi air strikes, which are no longer a factor.

We also currently have these sitting in the gulf: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Fifth_Fleet#Composition

That's 2 carrier battle groups and assorted support craft. The Iranian Navy could not contend with that. It would be Odyssey Dawn Iranian edition after we wiped out their fleet in the opening week. We also have NATO patrolling the straights of Hormuz to boot.

 

[irishScott]

Are you on crack?

The economy of the US and most of Western countries are on shaky ground, due to the current Greece financial problem.

Going to war with Iran would wreak havoc on everyone, because the Persian Gulf is no longer secure and the US must deploy more war ships in the region to protect oil tankers. Even with war ships protection the Persian Gulf may be too insecure for commercial traffic.

Here is a history lesson for you.

The Iran/Iraq War drove oil to higher price than what we have seen in the recent crest, interest rate went out of control, and unemployment in many part of the Western world were in the double digit.

That said, the saber rattling could be Netanyuhu attention diversion for the East Jerusalem plan to build 2000 new housing units for Israelis.

Israel poses a much greater threat to its neighbours than the other way around [GALLO/GETTY]

Here's a logic lesson for you: We don't need to occupy Iran Iraq-style. I'm talking about keeping the Persian Gulf open. Iran could not close it against the 2 carrier battle groups we have sitting in it right now. Period.

 

[Orignal Earl]

From your own link:


The only real damage was from Iraqi air strikes, which are no longer a factor.

We also currently have these sitting in the gulf: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Fifth_Fleet#Composition

That's 2 carrier battle groups and assorted support craft. The Iranian Navy could not contend with that. It would be Odyssey Dawn Iranian edition after we wiped out their fleet in the opening week. We also have NATO patrolling the straights of Hormuz.

Your talking like NATO is all going to tow the US Israel line.
I wouldn't count your chickens before they hatch

 

[irishScott]

Your talking like NATO is all going to tow the US Israel line.
I wouldn't count your chickens before they hatch

Forget about Israel for a second. We're talking about closing the Persian gulf. That affects any nation that does commerce there. In any case, NATO assistance would be a bonus. All evidence shows we could keep it open ourselves with the forces currently deployed there.

 

[Orignal Earl]

Here's a logic lesson for you: We don't need to occupy Iran Iraq-style. I'm talking about keeping the Persian Gulf open. Iran could not close it against the 2 carrier battle groups we have sitting in it right now. Period.

oh
You don't want to figure in every other thing that is going to happen around that.
Yes the US Navy can beat the Iranian Navy

 

[Nebor]

That's 2 carrier battle groups and assorted support craft. The Iranian Navy could not contend with that. It would be Odyssey Dawn Iranian edition after we wiped out their fleet in the opening week. We also have NATO patrolling the straights of Hormuz to boot.

Yup. And this time, they would be attacking actual US flagged ships (and others,) committing acts of war against the US. We wouldn't write it off as the collateral damage worth sustaining to remain outside of a regional conflict. We would kick the shit out of Iran so badly they'd wish it was just the Israelis bombing them.

People seem to think Iran is some sort of badass regional superpower... But they couldn't defeat Iraq in the 1980s. We defeated Iraq in less than 2 weeks. Twice. And we've only gotten better since then.

 

[Nebor]

oh
You don't want to figure in every other thing that is going to happen around that.
k nvm

If the United States were in the business of seriously calculating and considering third order effects, we wouldn't be engaged in a global war on terror right now.

 

[Orignal Earl]

If the United States were in the business of seriously calculating and considering third order effects, we wouldn't be engaged in a global war on terror right now.

 

[irishScott]

oh
You don't want to figure in every other thing that is going to happen around that.
k nvm

I was challenging Lemon Law's oft-repeated assertion that Iran could close down the gulf with shoulder-mounted rockets on the straights of Hormuz.

Now if Israel did pull a preemptive stike on Iran yes it would be a shitstorm, but there wouldn't be much Iran could do about it. They could invade Iraq I guess, but to what end? The Iraqis certainly don't like them enough to welcome them (understatement) and it wouldn't get them to Israel.