it's pretty simple, there have always been professional home flippers that know how to buy good properties, rehab them and sell at a profit. the last few years it's been the dot com all over again just this time in RE
A lot of so called investors bought up a lot of real estate in NOVA and other parts of the country. Many times the pros were selling to the amateurs. they used the ultra-low creative financing to pay 1% or so until they sell. Now they are all selling. NOVA inventories have quadrupled in the last year and sales are down.
Virginia MLS
The lack of inventory has pushed prices up because you still had people who want to buy a real home compete for property. Now the Donald Trump wanna bees will foreclose since they can't sell what they bought. And since a lot of them used their existing home equity for this madness, they will lose their homes as well.
Now for part 2, how do people afford the crazy prices? In the last few years over 30% of all new mortgages have been adjustable rate, interest only or Option ARM. If you ask a couple making $100,000 how they can afford their $500,000 mortgage and they say their payments are only $1000 a month, they are in for a big shock soon.
Many people bid up prices and took out ARM's since that is the only way they can afford their dream home. A lot of people had the idea of living in a nice home for a few years and when they can't afford it they sell and buy something they can afford. It's like a game of musical chairs, someone is always left standing. This year $300 BILLION worth of loans will adjust. Next year is $1.5 TRILLION and 2008 is also around $1 TRILLION and then it drops off. Current rates are around 5.5% plus 1% or 2% premium. If rates stay the same, then a lot of people's mortgages will go up to 8% or 9% per year in interest. On a $400,000 mortgage you are talking around $3000 a month plus taxes and insurance. And then you need cars, gas and food. $3500 a month home payment translates to a couple making $100,000 per year. Of course the national average and median is a lot less.
This year it's the investors selling in bubble markets. Next year when they foreclose and banks try to sell the extra inventory you will have the stupid people trying to sell and suddenly their equity will vanish. As they can't sell they will foreclose and this will add even more inventory to the 2008 people and so one.
A lot of investors have plans to rent out if they can't sell. Again, it's going to be too much competition. And to top it off, many markets will have huge numbers of new contstruction come online in the next 2 years.