Is it even possible for Hillary to win a debate?

[Skyclad1uhm1]

I'm not a US citizen and I therefor don't get to vote anyway. But I see the coming US elections as a 'best of two evils', and I'm afraid that the worst one will get picked.

Today will be the first debate if I'm not mistaken (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...hat-time-is-the-presidential-debate/90829720/), and I was wondering whether it's even possible for Hillary to win.

No one expects Trump to say anything that makes sense, they expect him to be blunt and make unfounded remarks. His followers more than anyone. So if he doesn't attack Hillary but sticks to the topics (and, although that's very unlikely, maybe even makes sense) he'll gain respect from others for not just being an orange buffoon.

If he insults Hillary and she lets it go he might get some boos, but his followers want him to attack her and everyone else expects it. However, this might hurt her as she might appear weak, especially if she can't overwhelmingly win the debate in another way.

If Trump attacks her and she attacks back she'll lose respect from people as it means he can get her to drop down to his level.

If Trump doesn't attack and she decides to hit first all he has to do is play the victim and she loses face too.

So what's left? She'd have to win on knowledge, insight and standpoints. But she can't 'win' on topics such as terrorism, illegal immigration or gun control (first two she'll go for humane solutions which Trump will make look weak, last one people aren't likely to switch stance on based on what a candidate says). She might be able to 'win' topics such as healthcare, employment or foreign knowledge, but I doubt she can win overwhelmingly enough on the first two to win over a lot of people, and the last one pretty much no one among Republicans care about, and very few among Democrats.

 

[Jaskalas]

The name of the game is voter turnout.

Clinton needs to promise the moon to say vote for her.
Trump will claim the same position, lots of promises.
Clinton will call his bluff that he has no way to do this.
He's unqualified, she's unqualified, he's evil, she's attacked rape victims... etc
No, don't do that. Don't stoop to his level.

Staying focused and on message for the handouts, the bright future, what she'll do... that's the winning ticket.
Scruff him off as a gnat, treat him as unimportant to both her, and the future of the American people.
He's a nobody who can do nothing for nobody.

Yeah, diminishing him by ignoring him is the best bet.

 

[MongGrel]

T-Minus 18 hours.

If Hillary can not stomp Trump to the curb so badly he never wants to get on a debating stage with her ever again, I'll be a bit surprised myself.

 

[ivwshane]

If people need to see this debate to decide whether or not they should vote for either candidate then they probably shouldn't be voting.

This debate will be pointless.






*I've been wrong about every debate so far so...

 

[UglyCasanova]

Aside from an infamous October Suprise, the election is already over. I don't know who's won it, but no one is changing their vote based on the debates. If you were voting for Clinton before you still will come November 8th, same with Trump. People say all sorts of things, but honestly I don't think there are really "undecided" voters out there. The only truly undecideds are those votes going to Gary Johnson, and that's just a matter of they are undecided whether or not bothering to cast a symbolic vote for the Libertarian Party (not the candidate) or not.

As was mentioned above, voter turnout is everything. They aren't trying to convince people to come to their side, they are just trying to motivate people to show up in the first place. The primaries were where it was really up in the air (for Republicans at least). Now it's just a question of which voting base actually turns out.

So to answer your question, no I don't guess she can but that doesn't matter.

 

[Skyclad1uhm1]

If people need to see this debate to decide whether or not they should vote for either candidate then they probably shouldn't be voting.

This debate will be pointless.






*I've been wrong about every debate so far so...

To be honest I think the debates can hurt her more than it can hurt him. After all, when it comes to his followers the worst he can do is agree with her. If he keeps impersonating Mussolini he might not gain votes but he won't lose em either. There's many more things that can go wrong for Hillary than for Trump.

 

[HamburgerBoy]

If people need to see this debate to decide whether or not they should vote for either candidate then they probably shouldn't be voting.

This debate will be pointless.

*I've been wrong about every debate so far so...

Agree with the first sentence, but unfortunately I don't think it will work that way. There will probably be enough "independents" paying more attention to the mannerisms/appearance of either candidate to tip things one direction or the other.

To be honest I think the debates can hurt her more than it can hurt him. After all, when it comes to his followers the worst he can do is agree with her. If he keeps impersonating Mussolini he might not gain votes but he won't lose em either. There's many more things that can go wrong for Hillary than for Trump.

I think Trump is the one with the most to lose. Clinton just needs to be forceful and healthy, and not hesitate to answer questions with reasonable depth (something she could more or less do with Sanders). Trump has to remain confident, but he also has to look composed to play up the "MSM is rigged against me" factor, brush up and not dodge everything like he did during the primaries, and figure out remotely convincing ways of getting around inevitable questions on his flip-flops. Trump's loyalists mean nothing; he could literally start talking about his dick on stage like he did a few months back, and they would cheer.

 

[compuwiz1]

Aside from an infamous October Suprise, the election is already over. I don't know who's won it, but no one is changing their vote based on the debates. If you were voting for Clinton before you still will come November 8th, same with Trump. People say all sorts of things, but honestly I don't think there are really "undecided" voters out there. The only truly undecideds are those votes going to Gary Johnson, and that's just a matter of they are undecided whether or not bothering to cast a symbolic vote for the Libertarian Party (not the candidate) or not.

As was mentioned above, voter turnout is everything. They aren't trying to convince people to come to their side, they are just trying to motivate people to show up in the first place. The primaries were where it was really up in the air (for Republicans at least). Now it's just a question of which voting base actually turns out.

So to answer your question, no I don't guess she can but that doesn't matter.

Yep, I agree. Voter turnout is the key. I think both sides will probably go away feeling like their candidate won, unless something weird happens. If Hill freezes up and BSODs or Trump does, that might change some minds, but other than that, most people know who they're voting for. I remember Rubio locking up. It can happen.

 

[MongGrel]

I'm guessing voter turnout is go to be pretty, um, YUGGGGE in this election.

 

[UglyCasanova]

I'm guessing voter turnout is go to be pretty, um, YUGGGGE in this election.

I think the opposite. Neither candidate is particularly liked and this election sadly really has boiled down to voting against the other candidate, so there's not going to be the draw felt for voters to turn up like there was with Obama in '08. I wouldn't be surprised if 2016 had record low turnout for both parties.

 

[tracerbullet]

"independents"

I find it difficult that there is such a thing right now. Feels to me like anyone claiming to have not made up their mind actually already has but won't admit to it.

 

[TeeJay1952]

If HRC talks to us instead of at us all will be well.

 

[vi edit]

Aside from an infamous October Suprise, the election is already over. I don't know who's won it, but no one is changing their vote based on the debates. If you were voting for Clinton before you still will come November 8th, same with Trump. People say all sorts of things, but honestly I don't think there are really "undecided" voters out there. The only truly undecideds are those votes going to Gary Johnson, and that's just a matter of they are undecided whether or not bothering to cast a symbolic vote for the Libertarian Party (not the candidate) or not.

As was mentioned above, voter turnout is everything. They aren't trying to convince people to come to their side, they are just trying to motivate people to show up in the first place. The primaries were where it was really up in the air (for Republicans at least). Now it's just a question of which voting base actually turns out.

So to answer your question, no I don't guess she can but that doesn't matter.

I'm not so sure about that. Trump is gaining and many states that Hillary had strong or modest leads in August are now tied or in Trumps favor. He picked up momentum and right now actually could run away with the win. I'm not sure if it's anything he said, what he didn't say, or what Hillary did or didn't do. She took a big hit with the 9/11 event that she needs to come out and recover from. There's some very wobbly voters out there that could prove to be very crucial. She definitely has the most to lose in the debate. The bar is set so miserably low for Trump that all he has to do is stand there for 90 minutes and remain moderately lucid and his voter base is going to remain what it is. Hillary has to walk an incredibly difficult line that is virtually impossible for her "win" the debates. She's treated with such a strong double standard that anything she does is met with over the top vitriol vs. Trump. He's teflon. She's glue. She has to somehow show strength while remaining compassionate and has to provide a plan for policy without sounding like a lecture. And even then, this cycle has been about punching each other with personal jabs and nothing on policy. So I have no idea what the polling base boosting Trump as of late wants in a candidate.

 

[John Connor]

Every time I have played someone pulled that ace out. Those damn dirty aces.

 

[cliftonite]

I'm not so sure about that. Trump is gaining and many states that Hillary had strong or modest leads in August are now tied or in Trumps favor. He picked up momentum and right now actually could run away with the win. I'm not sure if it's anything he said, what he didn't say, or what Hillary did or didn't do. She took a big hit with the 9/11 event that she needs to come out and recover from. There's some very wobbly voters out there that could prove to be very crucial. She definitely has the most to lose in the debate. The bar is set so miserably low for Trump that all he has to do is stand there for 90 minutes and remain moderately lucid and his voter base is going to remain what it is. Hillary has to walk an incredibly difficult line that is virtually impossible for her "win" the debates. She's treated with such a strong double standard that anything she does is met with over the top vitriol vs. Trump. He's teflon. She's glue. She has to somehow show strength while remaining compassionate and has to provide a plan for policy without sounding like a lecture. And even then, this cycle has been about punching each other with personal jabs and nothing on policy. So I have no idea what the polling base boosting Trump as of late wants in a candidate.

Agree. At this point, I think Trump has too much momentum to lose.

 

[PokerGuy]

Unless illary has another seizure or spews out even more lies than is customary to the point where they can't be buried, Trumpies will come away thinking they won, illary supporters and the media will come away thinking they won, and everyone else realizes we've already lost

 

[thraashman]

Remember in the 2012 debates, Romney came out and told lie after lie and Obama didn't call him on it and was widely considered to have lost the debate. At the second debate Obama didn't let Romney slide on his lies and Obama won the debate. Multiple independent news organizations just today came out having analyzed statements by both showing that not only does Trump lie more, but egregiously more than Hillary. So Hillary needs to be ready to not let him get away with the remarkable amount of bullshit we all know he's going to spew. Sure, it won't sway the far righties since we all know facts and reality are anathema to them, but there's bound to be some people still on the fence that won't like the incredible, remarkable, shockingly large amount of ridiculous lies that Trump says.

 

[vi edit]

Agree. At this point, I think Trump has too much momentum to lose.

Some of the latest polls coming out are heavily based on "landline" polling. I think there's a definite bias to the results. I don't know a single person with a landline any more. My parents are 65 and have ditched theirs. My grandparents are in their 80's and have switched over to cell phones. I think there's definite underrepresented demographic or three in some of the recent data. That's where I reserve some hope. In those underrepresented demographics that hopefully show up come election day. When you look at focused demographics Hillary has a 20+ point lead in women, still leads Donald in the under 30 group, has 90% of the black vote and arguably has a large lead with Hispanics and Muslims (although Muslims are a small overall percentage of the US). She also has the college educated white voters. Trump has also been polling bad Catholics who represent a vastly large voting block of people. Are there really *THAT* many uneducated, white people to swing the polls like they are?

I'm having trouble doing the math.

 

[PokerGuy]

Remember in the 2012 debates, Romney came out and told lie after lie and Obama didn't call him on it and was widely considered to have lost the debate. At the second debate Obama didn't let Romney slide on his lies and Obama won the debate. Multiple independent news organizations just today came out having analyzed statements by both showing that not only does Trump lie more, but egregiously more than Hillary. So Hillary needs to be ready to not let him get away with the remarkable amount of bullshit we all know he's going to spew. Sure, it won't sway the far righties since we all know facts and reality are anathema to them, but there's bound to be some people still on the fence that won't like the incredible, remarkable, shockingly large amount of ridiculous lies that Trump says.

haha, yes, because the public has soooooo much trust in the media these days to tell us who's lying.

Gallup: public trust in media at all time low

Any psychologist can tell you, elections have a whole lot less to do with issues and policies than they do with how the people look and are perceived. I even remember some study where people could tell with incredible accuracy which candidate was going to win an election without knowing anything about them or their positions. Just by looking at pictures of the two candidates, people could correctly say who won that particular election like 75% of the time without knowing anything about the people.

As much as we don't want to admit it, people are generally driven far more by their base instincts and judgements than by some higher order evaluation.

 

[theeedude]

haha, yes, because the public has soooooo much trust in the media these days to tell us who's lying.

Gallup: public trust in media at all time low

Any psychologist can tell you, elections have a whole lot less to do with issues and policies than they do with how the people look and are perceived. I even remember some study where people could tell with incredible accuracy which candidate was going to win an election without knowing anything about them or their positions. Just by looking at pictures of the two candidates, people could correctly say who won that particular election like 75% of the time without knowing anything about the people.

As much as we don't want to admit it, people are generally driven far more by their base instincts and judgements than by some higher order evaluation.

This is why these folks keep getting screwed every which way for the last 35 years, and keep telling us all about it while nothing changes. Why bother passing policies to help them if they are going to vote for the guy they want to have a beer with anyways?

 

[PokerGuy]

This is why these folks keep getting screwed every which way for the last 35 years, and keep telling us all about it while nothing changes. Why bother passing policies to help them if they are going to vote for the guy they want to have a beer with anyways?

That's the thing, people think they want a candidate based on his/her stances on issues, their policies and how they might help them, fix the economy, etc etc, but in reality for the most part they are acting on much baser judgements of how competent someone appears/looks/acts. It's not that they say one thing and do another (consciously), it's that they don't even know how big of a role how "competent" someone looks plays in their own decision making. I guess an example of how humans are often very unaware of our own failures and limitations, which is not always a bad thing.

 

[theeedude]

That's the thing, people think they want a candidate based on his/her stances on issues, their policies and how they might help them, fix the economy, etc etc, but in reality for the most part they are acting on much baser judgements of how competent someone appears/looks/acts. It's not that they say one thing and do another (consciously), it's that they don't even know how big of a role how "competent" someone looks plays in their own decision making. I guess an example of how humans are often very unaware of our own failures and limitations, which is not always a bad thing.

It is what it is, but if you don't use your brain and vote on instinct, then don't be surprised if someone exploits that and screws you over for 35 years to the point where you lost your middle class status, and your group's life expectancy is declining like you are living in a failed state.
As coastal liberal elites, even though we vote against Republicans, we at least get a bunch of tax cuts when they win, especially those of us in high brackets with a lot of capital gains as part of our compensation.
Plus we get to buy up assets on the cheap when Republicans crash the economy with their failed policies.
But working class folks? Yikes. They only get screwed, and they keep singing up for more.

 

[Roflmouth]

Some of the latest polls coming out are heavily based on "landline" polling.

No they're not. But keep holding out hope

 

[zinfamous]

That's the thing, people think they want a candidate based on his/her stances on issues, their policies and how they might help them, fix the economy, etc etc, but in reality for the most part they are acting on much baser judgements of how competent someone appears/looks/acts. It's not that they say one thing and do another (consciously), it's that they don't even know how big of a role how "competent" someone looks plays in their own decision making. I guess an example of how humans are often very unaware of our own failures and limitations, which is not always a bad thing.

seems like this is the first year that republicans really don't care about "flip flopping" and have spent no small amount of energy explaining around how lying really isn't all that important, anyway.

It's fascinating.

 

[0roo0roo]

whats left? "free speech zones"
for Jill Stein protestors, covered by periscope
https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/780541734627540992

Debates like the rest are only ever political theater, which is what Trump has flipped the script on

real issues, remain things mostly covered in the alternative outlets
Julian Assange - Confidential everyone in positions of government .
Julian Assange
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9bVG_0iT3M

If its a matter of mannerisms....
Hillary Clinton: "WHY AM I NOT 50 POINTS AHEAD?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYlDUSEadpY

She can't win on knowledge or experience. She's the one who hired an IT guy so ridiculous he asked how to change an email address on reddit for a "vip". The only experience she has is how to rig and corrupt systems, even the fbi so immunity is handed out like candy so she can't be prosecuted, and she can't talk about that.

Don't pretend to be more rational than you are...

"hope and change"....

"hope and change"....

Milo live debate warmup stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERZzsDbaM5I