Is COVID19 a hoax?

[Greenman]

Was never a hoax, but also not something to irrationally fear.

The panic reaction is over the top. Lets all stand in long lines to enter a crowded store and buy toilet paper we don't need. That's how you beat a virus.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

Was never a hoax, but also not something to irrationally fear.

It's not irrational to fear this. We as a country are woefully unprepared for this. I read an article in a local paper that the DFW hospitals have like 800 ICU beds available for about 3 million people in the metro area. That's not including the nearby rural areas which have zero beds and would have to transported to the bigger hospitals. So if we have an major outbreak it would be bad. Death panels and what not. That's pretty fucking scary to me.

 

[HomerJS]

Was never a hoax, but also not something to irrationally fear.

Depends on how you define "irrational" Being highly asymptomatically contagious with a mortality rate up to 40x the flu is at least a reason to fear it.

A lot of people think it is either a hoax or completely overblown despite the warnings from science. Wonder where they got that notion??

 

[Greenman]

Depends on how you define "irrational" Being highly asymptomatically contagious with a mortality rate up to 40x the flu is at least a reason to fear it.

A lot of people think it is either a hoax or completely overblown despite the warnings from science. Wonder where they got that notion??

40 times the mortality rate of the flu? Citation please.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

This is so safe we can send kids out without a second thought

 

[abj13]

40 times the mortality rate of the flu? Citation please.

It is generally accepted that the mortality rate of influenza is approximately 0.1%, including per Anthony Fauci. Of course, this can change depending on the year, flu strain etc, as the 2009 outbreak had fewer deaths. So far with COVID-19, the mortality rates have ranged anywhere from 1-10%, depending on what country you choose to compare, see here, here, and here. Some of the early WHO estimates placed the mortality rate around 3.4%, which if you do the math, is ~34x more deadly than influenza. In the US, the range is between 1.8-3.4%

 

[Starbuck1975]

It's not irrational to fear this. We as a country are woefully unprepared for this. I read an article in a local paper that the DFW hospitals have like 800 ICU beds available for about 3 million people in the metro area. That's not including the nearby rural areas which have zero beds and would have to transported to the bigger hospitals. So if we have an major outbreak it would be bad. Death panels and what not. That's pretty fucking scary to me.

This is a blow to American and western exceptionalism, and the dogmatic belief that government or science can save us, much as people thought religion would before.

It’s a pandemic. The investments in medical capacity needed to have been made years ago to have mitigated this broadside.

 

[jayzds]

It is generally accepted that the mortality rate of influenza is approximately 0.1%, including per Anthony Fauci. Of course, this can change depending on the year, flu strain etc, as the 2009 outbreak had fewer deaths. So far with COVID-19, the mortality rates have ranged anywhere from 1-10%, depending on what country you choose to compare, see here, here, and here. Some of the early WHO estimates placed the mortality rate around 3.4%, which if you do the math, is ~34x more deadly than influenza. In the US, the range is between 1.8-3.4%

'
While I agree it is more deadly...but the number of cases is not correct. There are way more cases not reported, and they are not counted because no test was done. So the real % will be less but, at the same time people still will fear it, because of the unknown. There are so many cases where people don't get shit for symptoms, and many severe ones, along with people dying as well.

 

[HomerJS]

40 times the mortality rate of the flu? Citation please.

Flu statistics

The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu.

www.livescience.com

If you check the current Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map the current mortality rate is almost 5%. Its actually greater then 40x as of today.

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[Mai72]

This is God's wrath. Look at those clouds! God is mad at us!!

 

[Mai72]

'
While I agree it is more deadly...but the number of cases is not correct. There are way more cases not reported, and they are not counted because no test was done. So the real % will be less but, at the same time people still will fear it, because of the unknown. There are so many cases where people don't get shit for symptoms, and many severe ones, along with people dying as well.

Ture. I coughed in the supermarket I was in and people were looking at me like I was the grim reaper.

I have allergies, and it's allergy season. I understand though. People are on edge. They don't know what to expect. It's the great unknown.

 

[abj13]

'
While I agree it is more deadly...but the number of cases is not correct. There are way more cases not reported, and they are not counted because no test was done. So the real % will be less but, at the same time people still will fear it, because of the unknown. There are so many cases where people don't get shit for symptoms, and many severe ones, along with people dying as well.

Agreed on the underestimate of the number of cases out there, as the denominator is likely an underestimate. On the flip-side, this would mean the R value for SARS-CoV-2 is even higher in comparison to influenza. In addition to COVID-19 having a higher mortality rate, the hospitalization rate is around 20% and places further stress on the system. This differs in comparison to influenza where the rate is around ~1%. So I think its safe to say that SARS-CoV-2 is more contagious, causes more severe disease requiring hospitalization, and causes more deaths compared to influenza. Exactly how much more depends on the number of assumptions one wants to enter into the COVID-19 data.

 

[ch33zw1z]

Ture. I coughed in the supermarket I was in and people were looking at me like I was the grim reaper.

I have allergies, and it's allergy season. I understand though. People are on edge. They don't know what to expect. It's the great unknown.

there's also more than one strain

Chinese scientists identify two strains of the coronavirus, indicating it's already mutated at least once

Researchers in China have found that two different types of the new coronavirus could be causing infections worldwide.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Mai72]

there's also more than one strain

Chinese scientists identify two strains of the coronavirus, indicating it's already mutated at least once

Researchers in China have found that two different types of the new coronavirus could be causing infections worldwide.

www.cnbc.com

Damn. That could be bad news.

 

[pmv]

I think it's impossible to say with any confidence at the moment what the 'mortality rate' of Covid19 is. Seem to be far too many unknowns, and far too much massively incomplete or even deliberately mis-reported (I'm looking at you, China) data, so you can't just work it out from numbers of reported cases.

Nonetheless, the evidence does seem to be there, even if you ignore the denominator of 'number of cases', just from the sheer number of admissions to intensive-care units, and the deaths.

I think it's a bit like comparing crime stats, where, while it's complicated across-the-board, murder is the least-tricky one to define and count. In the same spirit, deaths are an easier thing to count with some confidence. And just looking at how the deaths are stacking up, in the US as everywhere else, I think it is pretty obviously going to kill more people than do most (post-1918) flu outbreaks.

 

[abj13]

there's also more than one strain

Chinese scientists identify two strains of the coronavirus, indicating it's already mutated at least once

Researchers in China have found that two different types of the new coronavirus could be causing infections worldwide.

www.cnbc.com

That publication is very dubious at best. Other scientists have already called for retraction of that publication, so I wouldn't put much weight into it at this point.

 

[ch33zw1z]

Damn. That could be bad news.

The really bad news is how daft Americans are. We will be our own undoing in this situation. Personally, all my friends, family, co-workers here in Western MA and CT are pretty much taking it seriously....but I've heard people off handly call this a "liberal" problem or a "city" problem, like it changes the virus potency or decision to infect somehow.

'It is ungodly': students react to Liberty University reopening

 

[ch33zw1z]

That publication is very dubious at best. Other scientists have already called for retraction of that publication, so I wouldn't put much weight into it at this point.

Good to know. There were other articles, but that's the only one that I could quickly locate. Maybe the others were already retracted.

 

[ch33zw1z]

Or this guy: https://a.msn.com/r/2/BB121KXb?m=en-us&referrerID=InAppShare

GG DeSantis, you show the world what "Florida Man" means to you.

 

[Greenman]

Flu statistics

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu.

www.livescience.com

If you check the current Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map the current mortality rate is almost 5%. Its actually greater then 40x as of today.

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Thank you.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

It's a hoax because you are all figments of a super-advanced simulation. Everyone else is an NPC

Get out of my mind, good sir.The best post I saw recently, was that something is wrong with the simulation, so they have us all home, to save processing power and memory while they troubleshoot it.

 

[Vic]

Visited a few right wing sites this am, and all the comments there are still saying that this is all an overblown media hoax.

 

[hal2kilo]

Depends on how you define "irrational" Being highly asymptomatically contagious with a mortality rate up to 40x the flu is at least a reason to fear it.

A lot of people think it is either a hoax or completely overblown despite the warnings from science. Wonder where they got that notion??

If you are in the over 60 group, it's a Fn frightening reality. And being younger has no guarantees.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

40 times the mortality rate of the flu? Citation please.

You can look up CDC numbers for the 2017-18 flu season. 61.2k died out of about 43 million which is 1/10th, but of the true rate is closer to 3% then that's a whole lot more.

 

[IronWing]

DEATH is a hoax.
We don’t die, we go to the parallel universe.
The downside, Trump is president there too. A real pisser....

Parallel universe this, parallel universe that! I want to try a perpendicular universe. If the shit goes sideways, we're still okay.