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Iraq Conflict Has Killed A Million Iraqis

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Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: chucky2
I feel just fine, and I live in the real world. It's not US/British forces fault if they go over there for the greater good - despite what the overall US cost/benefit scheme might or might not be - and the Iraqi's cannot use this golden opportunity (one that throughout history is seldom seen) to rebuild this country, and instead just kill each other over BS.
There was no "greater good" to be had by going into Iraq. The myth that removing Saddam would lead to a free and prosperous Middle East has been disproved week after week, month after month, year after...you guessed it...year.

Look, I realize your BDS is as high as Harvey's, and as such you are so invested in failure to maintain your mental state, that you can think of absolutely no positive reasons for actually going into Iraq. I realize in the age of I want it now and why has it taken over 2 minutes for my latte to be made, it's hard to understand that changing the course of an entire nation with different peoples in it is going to take longer than you have patience for. Iraq isn't McDonald's or Starbucks, nothing over there is going to be instant. It's a long term committment that we'll be making for the long-term results (hint: Think in 30- 50 years we'll be seeing the positive results).

The men and women there are there for honorable intentions, not to steal the land and rape the women.
You should just cut out the "greater good" and "honorable intentions" horse shit at your earliest convenience. Soldiers are trained to be tools of the military, not Statesmen. Their intentions are whatever we order them to do, and we ordered them to invade and ruin a nation.

Well, unless you can produce some linkage where soldiers are going on the record as saying they're getting orders from on high to kill, maim, rape, and steal from Iraqi's, then maybe you should cut out you own horse sh1t huh? I like how your attitude is totally negative..."ruin" a nation. In 10 years when it's one of the most prosperous nations in the ME, are you going to call it ruined then? I'm sure you won't, as you know you bear no responsibility for you comments, you can just spout off at the mouth because it suits you. How convenient...

Our only fault was having good intentions
See the above paragraph.

See the above paragraph.

...if Iraq is any lesson to the US, it's only one of two things: 1.) Find another source of energy, ditch any support of Israel
Agreed.

That's a positive sign at least...we'd have to chalk you up to a Macro type if you were going to start railing against that...

and tell Muslims across the world that if any of our people die in a Muslim terrorist act, we're going to nuke one of their population centers
I know you dream at night that you're Matthew Broderick in WarGames, but the reality is simply that the nuclear option is a relic of the Cold War, and nothing more. We use precision guided smart bombs now.

I don't dream at all. Unfortunately a smart bomb is not enough of a deterrant though...hey, USSR, we've got smart bombs! Hmmm...that doesn't seem to carry the weight of a somewhat larger bomb...

We need to stay the course in Iraq (as sh1tty as that proposition is) so - long term - we can start exerting real influence over there.
Personally, I could go either way on the issue. One part of me hopes that we smarten-up as a nation and pull out immediately. Another part knows that sometimes you have to hit bottom before you make a positive change for the future. So maybe America does need to stay in Iraq for a while before we lose enough wealth and lives to finally get the entire country behind a non-interventionist policy.

When we're free of foreign oil, then you'll get your wish. Until then, prepare for the US to be involved. It's the price the Fed. that you slam pays for keeping the gas in your car, the lights on in your town, and the economy that sustains you, going. When you move into the mountains and live off the land totally, then you can b1tch without being a hypocrite...until then, it's being done on your and 300M other peoples behalfs.

In the age of WMD
What WMDs? Didn't you hear the news?

What I hear is someone who can mouth off because he bears 0 responsibility for the welfare of his nation. Someone who can be such a know it all because he's not accountable for anything, so it doesn't really matter if action or inaction is taken to deal with long term problems. Someone who'll scream today about us being interventionist, and then tomorrow when something really bad happens going Why didn't the Fed. do something?! Why didn't it protect us?!.....when that "something" is being interventionist. The WMD thing is out of the bag....it will be only a matter of time before some nation gets hit with a real WMD. It's not a matter of if it's a matter of when. Given the effects of one, I'd rather have the gov. actually doing something rather than what you want, which is nothing (or next to nothing...which is basically the same thing).

You cannot have it both ways: You either deal with huge problems going on in the world (which requires sacrifice, monetairily and otherwise), or you sit with your head in the sand hoping nothing is going to happen. I understand it's much easier for you to stay buried, maybe the next POTUS will do that like our past ones...most likely you'll get your wish so cheer up!!!

Chuck
 
Originally posted by: chucky2

-cut-

Chuck

How can you say that positive results will come from our invasion in 30-50 years? There are so many influencing factors over what happens in a country that I just don't see how anyone could possibly point to an action 50 years prior and say 'that's why things are better today'... even a one as drastic as an invasion. I think this half a century later worldview is an attempt to evade responsibility for this catastrophe.
 
Originally posted by: Corn

Sarcasm noted......however just an observation as it relates to this news report and the topic in general. In order to kill the million or so people as reported in the OP, 8 of these attacks would have had to have happened each and every day.......or 550 people shot. This report is bullshit.

Looks to me like Corn gets the ball going with this post. I'm reading it as * In order for this number to be true, 550 people would have to of died PER DAY

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken

The only methodology I've seen that is verified is the complete and seemingly eager willingness of the anti-war crowd to glom onto whatever inflated numbers they think they can get away with to use as anti-war propaganda. The simple truth of the matter is that for the estimate of 1 million Iraqis dead to be true there would need to be nearly 550 Iraqis being killed EVERY SINGLE DAY since the invasion began. There is absolutely nothing to substantiate that level of Iraqis being killed and the lame speculation of 'Well, maybe they missed counting some?' doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Sure maybe they're missing one, or two, or even ten a day. But not acounting for two or four hundred every day? Sorry, but somebody would surely notice if the numbers were THAT far off.

If you want respectable methodology then look at the report by the NEJM that I posted previously.

Yep, looks like Chicken is buying it , no?

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Originally posted by: JohnOfSheffield
TastesLikeChicken, why don't you go sit on an egg instead of thinking up stupid shit like that? I mean, anyone with ANY form of intelligence can see through that bullshit, i am sure you can too and just posted it as a lie, or am i thinking too highly of you?
Right. It's bullshit because you can easily show that an average of 550 Iraqis die every day. Got any proof or are you, as per your usual in here, just blowing smoke?

Oooooh, change that to AVERAGE of 550 per day

Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken

Claiming that most of the deaths happened at the beginning does nothing to change the fact that, according to the ORB claim, an average of 550 Iraqis would have to have died EVERY day. That's not an oversimplification, that's a perspective.


lol who knows



 
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Sorry for not initially stating the obvious -- that it was an AVERAGE per day -- so that the dumb people could figure it out more easily.

:roll:

So your argument is that a total of 1,000,000 people could not of died in over 4 years, because an AVERAGE of 550 people could not of died PER day....?
I'm not making the connection with the 550 number and this total. Why is it involved in this thread ?
 
Originally posted by: Orignal Earl
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Sorry for not initially stating the obvious -- that it was an AVERAGE per day -- so that the dumb people could figure it out more easily.

:roll:

So your argument is that a total of 1,000,000 people could not of died in over 4 years, because an AVERAGE of 550 people could not of died PER day....?
I'm not making the connection with the 550 number and this total. Why is it involved in this thread ?
It's to provide some perspective on the number of one million in order to point out how completely ridiculous it is. If you want, look at it as a monthly average instead - Nearly 17,000 Iraqis, on average, would have to die per month when the most valid estimates indicate that number to be closer to 2500. Now I could understand if that 2500 number was of by 50% or even 100%. No doubt deaths go unreported. But you're talking about a factor of nearly 7. For every 1 death that gets reported, 7 do not? Unlikely. If so, then somone needs to prove that first.
 
Originally posted by: MahmudAhmadinejad

It's to provide some perspective on the number of six million in order to point out how completely ridiculous it is. If you want, look at it as a monthly average instead - Nearly 102300 Jews, on average, would have to die per month when the most valid estimates indicate that number to be closer to 10,000. Now I could understand if that 10000 number was of by 50% or even 100%. No doubt deaths go unreported. But you're talking about a factor of nearly 10. For every 1 death that gets reported, 10 do not? Unlikely. If so, then somone needs to prove that first.

Just a little perspective
 
No TLC, you have to disprove the methodology to discredit the results. We have one study that counts actual found Iraqi dead bodies evidently killed violently. And that figure comes in at 151,000 and represents a floor value. But because many Iraqi families do not report their dead for fear that they will be added to the insurgent be killed lists, we now wonder what that ratio is between reported and non reported. Or never found of either category for that matter.

But we can do the math, take 1,000,000 and divide by 151,000 and we get 6.62. Now you can speculate until you are blue in the face that the value ought to be 3 or 30 or 1.33, but until you have a methodology to arrive at the actual number, you are simply not credible in any way.

And now we have two studies based on proven statistical methodologies, one estimated the toll a few years ago at 650,000, and other more recent one at one million today. Two different studies by two different authors that yield highly similar results. In science its called replication, and in science your reasoning would be called crapola.

But if you have some CREDIBLE reasons to say this type of a methodology overestimates actually killed, we are willing to listen. But if its based on only your gut feeling, you have no credibility.
 
Originally posted by: Orignal Earl
Originally posted by: MahmudAhmadinejad

It's to provide some perspective on the number of six million in order to point out how completely ridiculous it is. If you want, look at it as a monthly average instead - Nearly 102300 Jews, on average, would have to die per month when the most valid estimates indicate that number to be closer to 10,000. Now I could understand if that 10000 number was of by 50% or even 100%. No doubt deaths go unreported. But you're talking about a factor of nearly 10. For every 1 death that gets reported, 10 do not? Unlikely. If so, then somone needs to prove that first.

Just a little perspective
Bravo! :thumbsup:
 
Well in terms of actual proven Statistics, Baghdad has gone from a majority Sunni city pre-invasion to a majority Shia city today. Its a demographic change that only numbers
in the million sized hunks could explain. 151,000 is a drop in that bucket.

Science is about testable hypothesizes, not gut feelings.
 
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: chucky2

-cut-

Chuck

How can you say that positive results will come from our invasion in 30-50 years? There are so many influencing factors over what happens in a country that I just don't see how anyone could possibly point to an action 50 years prior and say 'that's why things are better today'... even a one as drastic as an invasion. I think this half a century later worldview is an attempt to evade responsibility for this catastrophe.

60+ years ago we defeated a nation that we hated so badly we created such a racist mindset in ourselves to defeat them, it exists in generations today that were not even alive then - Now Japan is one of our closest allies. 50+ years ago we lost almost 37,000 of our own pushing back N. Korean's, which would have been a total route had China not gotten involved. Look what the cost to the Korean's and N. Korean's has been for us not winning that war. Compare S. Korea to N. Korea and tell me it wouldn't have been worth winning that war. Today S. Korea is a valued trading partner, N. Korea sits in the sh1tter.

Nothing hard on such a national scale is easy or quick. The fr3@king civil rights movemenet here in the US - which never should have had to happen in the first place - took years to make real progress, and that was buy US citizens.

You're talking about basically winning the hearts and minds of whole peoples in the ME, while simultaneously protecting them from each other because they're venting decades of repressed frustration...which means in that whole F'd up mix, you're going to kill/mistreat thousands of the same people you are trying to win over, just in the act of trying to protect them. Making progress like that is hard. It's not going to take days, months, 2 years, 5 years like jpeyton and everyone in the What do you mean it's not ready, I just ordered it 2 minutes ago mindset wants.

Everyone keeps repeating, It's a F'up, It's a catastrophe, It's a <whatever> to themselves...to the point that no matter what the success, it doesn't matter, because they've already formed the opinion it's a disaster. Iraq is not a disaster. It will be a disaster if we abandon what we started. Not because of the wasted lives or money, but because when people are looking for a rock of support and you tell them you'll be there for them, and then up and pull out and leave them to POS's, you set the expectation for everyone else around the world that you aren't going to stick to what you started.

This defeatist attitude coupled with the spoiled If it doesn't poof! appear before my eyes immediately attitude more and more Americans are getting is more dangerous long term than any Osama/Saddam/whatever could hope to produce. America is about dreaming big and making it happen, not being whiny little b1tches and declaring defeat...gezus...

Chuck
 
Originally posted by: chucky2
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: chucky2

-cut-

Chuck

How can you say that positive results will come from our invasion in 30-50 years? There are so many influencing factors over what happens in a country that I just don't see how anyone could possibly point to an action 50 years prior and say 'that's why things are better today'... even a one as drastic as an invasion. I think this half a century later worldview is an attempt to evade responsibility for this catastrophe.

60+ years ago we defeated a nation that we hated so badly we created such a racist mindset in ourselves to defeat them, it exists in generations today that were not even alive then - Now Japan is one of our closest allies. 50+ years ago we lost almost 37,000 of our own pushing back N. Korean's, which would have been a total route had China not gotten involved. Look what the cost to the Korean's and N. Korean's has been for us not winning that war. Compare S. Korea to N. Korea and tell me it wouldn't have been worth winning that war. Today S. Korea is a valued trading partner, N. Korea sits in the sh1tter.

Nothing hard on such a national scale is easy or quick. The fr3@king civil rights movemenet here in the US - which never should have had to happen in the first place - took years to make real progress, and that was buy US citizens.

You're talking about basically winning the hearts and minds of whole peoples in the ME, while simultaneously protecting them from each other because they're venting decades of repressed frustration...which means in that whole F'd up mix, you're going to kill/mistreat thousands of the same people you are trying to win over, just in the act of trying to protect them. Making progress like that is hard. It's not going to take days, months, 2 years, 5 years like jpeyton and everyone in the What do you mean it's not ready, I just ordered it 2 minutes ago mindset wants.

Everyone keeps repeating, It's a F'up, It's a catastrophe, It's a <whatever> to themselves...to the point that no matter what the success, it doesn't matter, because they've already formed the opinion it's a disaster. Iraq is not a disaster. It will be a disaster if we abandon what we started. Not because of the wasted lives or money, but because when people are looking for a rock of support and you tell them you'll be there for them, and then up and pull out and leave them to POS's, you set the expectation for everyone else around the world that you aren't going to stick to what you started.

This defeatist attitude coupled with the spoiled If it doesn't poof! appear before my eyes immediately attitude more and more Americans are getting is more dangerous long term than any Osama/Saddam/whatever could hope to produce. America is about dreaming big and making it happen, not being whiny little b1tches and declaring defeat...gezus...

Chuck

So how many years will change the fact we attacked an innocent people doing no harm? I hope things do go well, and the leaders who decided we needed to kill those people should enjoy the success from a jail cell. That's my problem with this whole thing. Focus on the future and ignore the murder.
 
Originally posted by: chucky2
It's a long term committment that we'll be making for the long-term results (hint: Think in 30- 50 years we'll be seeing the positive results).
At $275 million a day, it's a long term commitment this country can't afford, and we are already seeing the results of our lax fiscal policies here at home with the stock market and housing crash. You can't print money out of thin-air without a consequence. 30-50 years at $275 million a day is over $3 trillion of this country's wealth (plus the billions in interest per day to finance it) down the drain. The question is, why are you so eager to ship the wealth of America to Iraq with no return to show for it?

Well, unless you can produce some linkage where soldiers are going on the record as saying they're getting orders from on high to kill, maim, rape, and steal from Iraqi's, then maybe you should cut out you own horse sh1t huh?
They are ordered to shoot as ordered, not think and act independently. Our soldiers aren't mercenaries; they are tools. Like a rifle, or a tank. You give them orders and they carry them out.

I like how your attitude is totally negative..."ruin" a nation. In 10 years when it's one of the most prosperous nations in the ME, are you going to call it ruined then?
Which one is it? 10 years? 30-50 years? Are we turning the corner in Iraq? If you knew anything about the situation in Iraq, there is no way it will be more prosperous than nations like Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait in 10 years.

That's a positive sign at least...we'd have to chalk you up to a Macro type if you were going to start railing against that...
It's hilarious that you are non-interventionist when it comes to becoming free of foreign oil, and eliminating our support for Israel, yet you support a war in Iraq that is the single most interventionist action our country has committed since Vietnam.

I don't dream at all. Unfortunately a smart bomb is not enough of a deterrant though...hey, USSR, we've got smart bombs! Hmmm...that doesn't seem to carry the weight of a somewhat larger bomb...
The USSR is a relic of the Cold War too. And what does Russia have to do with Muslim terrorists. I think it's time for you to regroup here.

When we're free of foreign oil, then you'll get your wish. Until then, prepare for the US to be involved. It's the price the Fed. that you slam pays for keeping the gas in your car, the lights on in your town, and the economy that sustains you, going. When you move into the mountains and live off the land totally, then you can b1tch without being a hypocrite...until then, it's being done on your and 300M other peoples behalfs.
The foreigners will still sell us their oil without war. Did we have to invade China for them to sell their manufacturing base to us? Did we invade Canada to get their oil?

Someone who'll scream today about us being interventionist, and then tomorrow when something really bad happens going Why didn't the Fed. do something?!
Actually, for the record, I don't support any of the Fed's latest actions. Our irresponsible fiscal policies created a boom, and a bust is inevitable; the Fed is only delaying (and probably worsening) it.

The WMD thing is out of the bag....it will be only a matter of time before some nation gets hit with a real WMD. It's not a matter of if it's a matter of when. Given the effects of one, I'd rather have the gov. actually doing something rather than what you want, which is nothing (or next to nothing...which is basically the same thing).
I agree fully. How as Iraq, or the other actions of our current administration, reduced the existence of WMDs or global terrorism?

Answer: it hasn't. The National Intelligence Estimate has already told us on several occasions that global terrorism has increased since our invasion of Iraq. Iraq didn't have WMDs. Our own government agencies are telling us Iran isn't building a nuclear bomb. al-Qaeda is group with no national government, no army, no navy, no tanks and no precision guided missiles. Forgive me if I don't think a multi-trillion dollar military operation and occupation is the best solution to the threat.
 
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: chucky2
It's a long term committment that we'll be making for the long-term results (hint: Think in 30- 50 years we'll be seeing the positive results).
At $275 million a day, it's a long term commitment this country can't afford, and we are already seeing the results of our lax fiscal policies here at home with the stock market and housing crash. You can't print money out of thin-air without a consequence. 30-50 years at $275 million a day is over $3 trillion of this country's wealth (plus the billions in interest per day to finance it) down the drain. The question is, why are you so eager to ship the wealth of America to Iraq with no return to show for it?

So it's $3T of our own wealth invested largely back into our own economy largely employing our own people. Got it, Thanks. For that we eventually get cheaper oil (or oil that hasn't risen in price as much as it would have), preferential treatment (China and the rest of the developing countries need for the same oil we want/need isn't decreasing...it's increasing, fast), and what will hopefully be a Muslim ally in the ME - and not one where the Royal's take the money, F their people over, and we take the blame for the corruption (which to a certain exent we share some of the blame).

Well, unless you can produce some linkage where soldiers are going on the record as saying they're getting orders from on high to kill, maim, rape, and steal from Iraqi's, then maybe you should cut out you own horse sh1t huh?
They are ordered to shoot as ordered, not think and act independently. Our soldiers aren't mercenaries; they are tools. Like a rifle, or a tank. You give them orders and they carry them out.

So, you have no proof. So this was a total manufacture from you to implicate our soldiers doing things they're not doing. Got it.

I like how your attitude is totally negative..."ruin" a nation. In 10 years when it's one of the most prosperous nations in the ME, are you going to call it ruined then?
Which one is it? 10 years? 30-50 years? Are we turning the corner in Iraq? If you knew anything about the situation in Iraq, there is no way it will be more prosperous than nations like Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait in 10 years.

I'd say 10 years or less (as long as stability stays at or above current levels) for marked improvemnt and 30-50 years before the country is a total ME powerhouse and true US ally. Will it be more prosperous than SA or Iran? SA would be tough to compete with, but Iran is basically doing everything it can do for the world community not to trust it, so that wouldn't surprise me. Maybe if the entrenched Leadership (both religious and political) in Iran gets overthrown or just plain ignored Iran will succeed...otherwise I think they're going to be on a long rocky road...

That's a positive sign at least...we'd have to chalk you up to a Macro type if you were going to start railing against that...
It's hilarious that you are non-interventionist when it comes to becoming free of foreign oil, and eliminating our support for Israel, yet you support a war in Iraq that is the single most interventionist action our country has committed since Vietnam.

Ummm, being free of foreign oil isn't interventionist or non-interventionist, it's called being energy independent. They are two different things...you know that right??? As far as Israel, IMHO they don't deserve our support simply because the creation of that state was a F up from the get go, and from the start, the Israeli's started F'ing over the Palestinians...and still do to this day. Yes the Palestinians respond in kind, but, what does anyone expect? Just on Israel's actions alone I don't support us supporting them. We should go hands off - no preferential treatment, no UN resolution blocking unless it's a clear gang up on Israel type resolution - and let them and the Palestinians fight it out. Whowever is left standing, That's the winner.

I don't dream at all. Unfortunately a smart bomb is not enough of a deterrant though...hey, USSR, we've got smart bombs! Hmmm...that doesn't seem to carry the weight of a somewhat larger bomb...
The USSR is a relic of the Cold War too. And what does Russia have to do with Muslim terrorists. I think it's time for you to regroup here.

You are not getting it. If you want to go hands off and trust that the other party is going to leave you alone, you better make them aware that when you go hands off, there's one big MF'ing stick if they decide to test the waters. That way they make d@mn sure to police their own.

When we're free of foreign oil, then you'll get your wish. Until then, prepare for the US to be involved. It's the price the Fed. that you slam pays for keeping the gas in your car, the lights on in your town, and the economy that sustains you, going. When you move into the mountains and live off the land totally, then you can b1tch without being a hypocrite...until then, it's being done on your and 300M other peoples behalfs.
The foreigners will still sell us their oil without war. Did we have to invade China for them to sell their manufacturing base to us? Did we invade Canada to get their oil?

Yes, but will they do so so cheaply? And at the volumes we need? And in the time we need it? And at a level of service we can depend on? And etc.? The Chinese don't sell us sh1t because we didn't invade them, they sell us sh1t because we're consumers and because they have the capacity to produce it and because it drivers their economy. When Chinese wages rise - and they will rise eventually (driving up costs to us) - and if, ever, their capacity cannot keep up with worldwide demand, then maybe your example here will make sense. Until then it's apples to oranges. Canada is our next door neighbor...I doubt we'd ever invade them. Now you've gone to apples and bowling balls...

Someone who'll scream today about us being interventionist, and then tomorrow when something really bad happens going Why didn't the Fed. do something?!
Actually, for the record, I don't support any of the Fed's latest actions. Our irresponsible fiscal policies created a boom, and a bust is inevitable; the Fed is only delaying (and probably worsening) it.

I'm not talking about internal economic boom or bust...

The WMD thing is out of the bag....it will be only a matter of time before some nation gets hit with a real WMD. It's not a matter of if it's a matter of when. Given the effects of one, I'd rather have the gov. actually doing something rather than what you want, which is nothing (or next to nothing...which is basically the same thing).
I agree fully. How as Iraq, or the other actions of our current administration, reduced the existence of WMDs or global terrorism?

Answer: it hasn't. The National Intelligence Estimate has already told us on several occasions that global terrorism has increased since our invasion of Iraq. Iraq didn't have WMDs. Our own government agencies are telling us Iran isn't building a nuclear bomb. al-Qaeda is group with no national government, no army, no navy, no tanks and no precision guided missiles. Forgive me if I don't think a multi-trillion dollar military operation and occupation is the best solution to the threat.

Surprisingly, I'm going to agree with you somewhat here. Other than killing lots of terrorist types, recruitment is up because of our policies. Other than taking out Saddam, who was basically untrustable and would have eventually aquired a WMD type weapon, nothing has changed.

However, that's all short term. For sure the WoT is taking the fight to the terrorists instead of letting them always come to us. For sure the WoT is sending messages to Leadership in the worlds countries that something will be done about these nutjobs, and that the US expects their help (it's interventionist, but hey, if they need some prodding, so be it).

Our own government agencies are telling us they don't think Iran is building a nuke, but they don't know. And of course Iran continues to enrich, even when Russia can supply them with whatever they need? Why is that again???

It's funny how you point out AQ is a group that has no borders. Just how then do you expect to counter that threat?? What leverage do you propose to exert over world Leaders in these countries/provinces/territories to convince them to use their resources to partner with you instead of AQ? Or at minimum at least not be ambivelent towards AQ? What's your long term plan for countering AQ if you don't want us to be interventionists, and you want us to go hands off on Israel (who like it or not, you know gives us primo intelligence)? How, short of complete energy indepenedence from ME oil and controlling each and every one of the people who enter the US, plus screening all materials that enter the US, do you plan on negating AQ money (which, comes from somewhere) and dedication?

I guess what it boils down to jpeyton is that there's all these huge issues, and what you want POTUS to do is basically to do nothing. Now, that is one way to hopefully not have another 9/11, and maybe it would work. Given the dedication of AQ (and, people willing to blow themselves up is as dedicated as it gets), Taliban, etc. types...I think that's basically the one way that guarantees failure.

Chuck
 
Originally posted by: chucky2
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: chucky2

-cut-

Chuck

How can you say that positive results will come from our invasion in 30-50 years? There are so many influencing factors over what happens in a country that I just don't see how anyone could possibly point to an action 50 years prior and say 'that's why things are better today'... even a one as drastic as an invasion. I think this half a century later worldview is an attempt to evade responsibility for this catastrophe.

60+ years ago we defeated a nation that we hated so badly we created such a racist mindset in ourselves to defeat them, it exists in generations today that were not even alive then - Now Japan is one of our closest allies. 50+ years ago we lost almost 37,000 of our own pushing back N. Korean's, which would have been a total route had China not gotten involved. Look what the cost to the Korean's and N. Korean's has been for us not winning that war. Compare S. Korea to N. Korea and tell me it wouldn't have been worth winning that war. Today S. Korea is a valued trading partner, N. Korea sits in the sh1tter.

Nothing hard on such a national scale is easy or quick. The fr3@king civil rights movemenet here in the US - which never should have had to happen in the first place - took years to make real progress, and that was buy US citizens.

You're talking about basically winning the hearts and minds of whole peoples in the ME, while simultaneously protecting them from each other because they're venting decades of repressed frustration...which means in that whole F'd up mix, you're going to kill/mistreat thousands of the same people you are trying to win over, just in the act of trying to protect them. Making progress like that is hard. It's not going to take days, months, 2 years, 5 years like jpeyton and everyone in the What do you mean it's not ready, I just ordered it 2 minutes ago mindset wants.

Everyone keeps repeating, It's a F'up, It's a catastrophe, It's a <whatever> to themselves...to the point that no matter what the success, it doesn't matter, because they've already formed the opinion it's a disaster. Iraq is not a disaster. It will be a disaster if we abandon what we started. Not because of the wasted lives or money, but because when people are looking for a rock of support and you tell them you'll be there for them, and then up and pull out and leave them to POS's, you set the expectation for everyone else around the world that you aren't going to stick to what you started.

This defeatist attitude coupled with the spoiled If it doesn't poof! appear before my eyes immediately attitude more and more Americans are getting is more dangerous long term than any Osama/Saddam/whatever could hope to produce. America is about dreaming big and making it happen, not being whiny little b1tches and declaring defeat...gezus...

Chuck

And look what happened with French occupations of Vietnam, look at what happened with Soviet invasions of Afghanistan, the French in Algeria, look at what happened to Niceragua and Panama after we attacked/invaded them... Iran after we overthrew their government, and so on and so forth. Sometimes military adventures turn out well, frequently they do not. To say that Iraq will see positive results in 30-50 years is not really based on anything. It is just as likely (if not moreso considering the region) that Iraq will be even more of a catastrophe 30-50 years from now. There are so many variables in between then and now that it is utterly impossible to make the sort of prediction that you did... and exceedingly foolish to base a foreign policy on "jesus I hope things are okay three decades from now".

I won't even both with the 'rah rah' America parts.
 
Oh, and this is for chucky and everyone else that says we either invaded to 'take over' Iraq's oil, or who thinks that we're going to somehow get 'cheap' oil if/when Iraq ever stops burning. OIL IS A GLOBAL COMMODITY.

As far as the future prosperity of Iraq goes, this is exceedingly unlikely. A vast amount of the country's professionals, businessmen, and educated people have fled in the massive refugee crisis that has been going on since the invasion. They don't appear interested in coming back. This will be a staggering blow to the long term economy of Iraq and their ability to regain their economic footing. Simply put, a lot of the peple with the education and money to rebuild the place have long since left. This just adds to the catastrophe.
 
Originally posted by: eskimospy
As far as the future prosperity of Iraq goes, this is exceedingly unlikely. A vast amount of the country's professionals, businessmen, and educated people have fled in the massive refugee crisis that has been going on since the invasion.
So true; a majority of the millions who left Iraq after the invasion where at the top of their society, and had the means to make such a move.

Imagine if a large portion of the doctors, engineers, scientists, lawyers, and businessmen left America tomorrow? How prosperous would we be?
 
Originally posted by: eskimospy

And look what happened with French occupations of Vietnam, look at what happened with Soviet invasions of Afghanistan, the French in Algeria, look at what happened to Niceragua and Panama after we attacked/invaded them... Iran after we overthrew their government, and so on and so forth. Sometimes military adventures turn out well, frequently they do not. To say that Iraq will see positive results in 30-50 years is not really based on anything. It is just as likely (if not moreso considering the region) that Iraq will be even more of a catastrophe 30-50 years from now. There are so many variables in between then and now that it is utterly impossible to make the sort of prediction that you did... and exceedingly foolish to base a foreign policy on "jesus I hope things are okay three decades from now".

I won't even both with the 'rah rah' America parts.

And yet the difference between Iraq and all those other countries is we're atcually there to do good so the people there can prosper and live by their own decisions - none of what you just described is that case.

There are tons of variables in between, it's not going to be easy, we're not going to be able to go to the underpaid illegal immigrant behind the counter and have him make our fast food meal for us in record time for nothing. It's going to be us making the long term committment, and us helping to foot the bill.

Montetarily will we come out ahead (even with discounted oil)? Maybe, Maybe not...I doubt it. What's it worth to you to prevent another 9/11 though? Another two 9/11's? Is it worth maybe something much worse not happening?

Look into your crystal ball and give me guarantees (the same ones you expect from Bush&co) that your course of action - doing nothing - is long term going to be the safest bet for the US from not only a security standpoint but also an economic one (like, when our economy keeps tanking and these other developing nations - which show no trend of slowing down anytime soon - start getting more and more oil that we need, thereby driving our prices up and up).

Again, there's these huge problems just floating around out there (many of them, and they're all interrelated), to which the other sides answer is: Don't do anything, be non-interventionist. That's super, all well and good. How though then do you get other countries to quash AQ? Taliban? Other nutjobs? We're Billions into Musharraf and still AQ/Taliban are enjoying safehaven in his country. Clearly money isn't the issue with them, so what's their incentive to anger their anti-US brainwashed population to go after AQ/Taliban, and also to stamp out radical Islamist schools/centers? You don't expect to just defeat AQ/Taliban and then leave right? I mean, you have to know that you must change the ME perception of the US at such a level the brainwashing that goes on is quashed.

So, what's the plan?

Chuck
 
Originally posted by: Orignal Earl
Originally posted by: MahmudAhmadinejad

It's to provide some perspective on the number of six million in order to point out how completely ridiculous it is. If you want, look at it as a monthly average instead - Nearly 102300 Jews, on average, would have to die per month when the most valid estimates indicate that number to be closer to 10,000. Now I could understand if that 10000 number was of by 50% or even 100%. No doubt deaths go unreported. But you're talking about a factor of nearly 10. For every 1 death that gets reported, 10 do not? Unlikely. If so, then somone needs to prove that first.

Just a little perspective
I'll take that evasionary red herring of a post to mean that you can't actually counter my statement.
 
Originally posted by: Lemon law
No TLC, you have to disprove the methodology to discredit the results. We have one study that counts actual found Iraqi dead bodies evidently killed violently. And that figure comes in at 151,000 and represents a floor value. But because many Iraqi families do not report their dead for fear that they will be added to the insurgent be killed lists, we now wonder what that ratio is between reported and non reported. Or never found of either category for that matter.

But we can do the math, take 1,000,000 and divide by 151,000 and we get 6.62. Now you can speculate until you are blue in the face that the value ought to be 3 or 30 or 1.33, but until you have a methodology to arrive at the actual number, you are simply not credible in any way.

And now we have two studies based on proven statistical methodologies, one estimated the toll a few years ago at 650,000, and other more recent one at one million today. Two different studies by two different authors that yield highly similar results. In science its called replication, and in science your reasoning would be called crapola.

But if you have some CREDIBLE reasons to say this type of a methodology overestimates actually killed, we are willing to listen. But if its based on only your gut feeling, you have no credibility.
I don't have to disprove anything (Remember the oft used "Can't disprove a negative."). If you believe the million number it's up to you to provide proof because they aren't hard numbers and they aren't a body count. They are ultimately nothing more than estimates.
 
The TLC delusion is-------I don't have to disprove anything (Remember the oft used "Can't disprove a negative."). If you believe the million number it's up to you to provide proof because they aren't hard numbers and they aren't a body count. They are ultimately nothing more than estimates.

Excuse me, TLC, but we have a highly credible organization, The lancet, who says the number is 1,000,000 and they publish their scientific methodologies. VS the highly dubious TLC who has nothing scientific in his corner.

You may be correct that its an estimate, but unless you can disprove that lancet is way off, you are blowing smoke and saying nothing. The burden of proof and the science is on you because they have given a number and a method you simply DO NOT WANT TO BELIEVE.

They have the science and you have NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
 
Originally posted by: chucky2
And yet the difference between Iraq and all those other countries is we're atcually there to do good so the people there can prosper and live by their own decisions - none of what you just described is that case.
We clearly disagree on what is in the best interests of the Iraqis, so I won't bother addressing the "good intentions" issue anymore.

Montetarily will we come out ahead (even with discounted oil)? Maybe, Maybe not...I doubt it. What's it worth to you to prevent another 9/11 though? Another two 9/11's? Is it worth maybe something much worse not happening?
Pre-invasion, it was estimated we would spend $50 billion on Iraq. Fast forward to 2008, and conservative estimates put the total closer to $1 trillion, and that's not including a 10-50 year occupation. Then you have to factor in interest on a loan of that magnitude. Then factor in the opportunity cost that has been lost because we didn't spend that money domestically and squandered it overseas. Tangible societal benefits, like a better educated working class, a healthier populace, and a controlled-growth economy would have put many times more wealth into America's pockets than the quarterly-earnings statements of government contractors. Improving society brings more than just immediate benefits; it brings bigger gains down the road. But we need to start domestically first.

Lastly, the price of oil has gone up dramatically since we invaded Iraq. Markets like predictability, and Saddam was predictable...he wanted to remain king of his castle. Wars are unpredictable. The rising cost of oil directly attributed to our war in Iraq has added hundreds of billions to the cost on our society.

How though then do you get other countries to quash AQ?
Afghanistan, pre-March-2003, was a great example of how to quash AQ. Unfortunately, post-March-2003 to now has erased those gains.
 
Originally posted by: Lemon law
The TLC delusion is-------I don't have to disprove anything (Remember the oft used "Can't disprove a negative."). If you believe the million number it's up to you to provide proof because they aren't hard numbers and they aren't a body count. They are ultimately nothing more than estimates.

Excuse me, TLC, but we have a highly credible organization, The lancet, who says the number is 1,000,000 and they publish their scientific methodologies. VS the highly dubious TLC who has nothing scientific in his corner.

You may be correct that its an estimate, but unless you can disprove that lancet is way off, you are blowing smoke and saying nothing. The burden of proof and the science is on you because they have given a number and a method you simply DO NOT WANT TO BELIEVE.

They have the science and you have NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
I have the WHO study published in the New England Journal of Medicine. They have double the sampling of your study too.

MY STUDY KICKS THE CRAP OUT OF YOUR STUDY BECAUSE IT'S TWICE AS BIG AND IT HAS MORE CACHE.

So there.
 
Originally posted by: JohnOfSheffield
Originally posted by: Corn
Originally posted by: Craig234
Originally posted by: Corn
Originally posted by: sirjonk
Chalk up another 64 Iraqis dead, dozens wounded, many of whom may die from their injuries. I wish US soldiers would stop suicide bombing the civilian populace.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...re_mi_ea/iraq_violence

Sarcasm noted......however just an observation as it relates to this news report and the topic in general. In order to kill the million or so people as reported in the OP, 8 of these attacks would have had to have happened each and every day.......or 550 people shot. This report is bullshit.

No, just as a plane crash in the US that kills 100 gets far more press than the greater number of casualties that day on our highways, you don't hear the ongoing violence.

Can you actually disprove any of the methodology or facts of the study and show it's wrong? No, you don't seem able to.

A poll of 2400 people hardly constitutes proof of a million deaths. Did the pollsters verify the people supposedly killed had infact been killed? Or were they just taking the respondents at their word? An average of 550 people killed per day every day since the initial invasion would yield a much higher result on Iraqbodycount, but its not even close. If you take the face value of this so-called evidence without a critical eye it simply reinforces my already low opinion of your intellectual honesty or curiosity. It is ludicrous to assume the overwhelming majority of Iraqi deaths (90% plus) aren't being recorded or reported--which is what you would have to believe to discount the results at iraqbodycount and believe this ridiculous poll.


Corn, Iraq was a failure as an operation, ANYONE involved with any sense of honor will tell you that, it's a failure right now and it will always be a failure since the sought after WMD's which IS STILL the reason for the war will never be found, mostly since they were never there.

Bush the elder didn't go into Iraq, sanctions followed, bombings, inspections, when it was thought safe an invasion.

There you have it.

You may not like it and you may want to believe the 45 minute threat still, or the mushroom clouds but the truth is that we KNEW beyond a doubt that they had no resistance to an invasion and THAT is why Iraq was invaded, what was not calculated in was the free will of the people. Something GW and his followers don't give a shit about.

If you think this was really about GW percieving Iraq as a theat (or Blair, getting all horny about imperialism) then you will really have to work with your perception skills.

Now that we fucked it up, and yah, i say WE, the UK is as responsible, we need to fucking fix it, we don't, or at least i don't, want it to become Afghanistan v2 where terrorists can grow strong, i got kids, they shouldn't have to deal with our/my mistakes.

I am trying to understand why you replied as you did to my post. Believe me I appreciate the sentiment noted in your first and last sentences, but what does the rest of your reply have to do with what I said to Craig234? Let us not derail the conversation away from the OP's topic, please.
 
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