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Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

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SteveGrabowski said:
The implosion used to put pressure on a sub-critical spherical plutonium/uranium core to squeeze it into a slightly smaller sphere to become super-critical isn't exactly an easy thing, and is the classified part of our nuclear warhead design. Iran would need to engineer and test that to get it right and without that they don't have a nuke.
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Huh?
en.wikipedia.org

Gun-type fission weapon - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Gun-type fission weapons are trivial to manufacture for any organization that can enrich uranium.
 
[DHT]Osiris said:
Who cares? You only need enough to halt military action against you.
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You think a couple of low yield nukes is going to stop the US or Israel? Shoot those pieces of crap at Tel Aviv and every city in your nation is going to be flattened by Minutemen III. Now if you can credibly show you have the ability to hit Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, etc with a bunch of H-bombs with yields in the range of hundreds of kilotons congrats, no one's gonna make a move on you just like no one does Kim Jong Un.

Maybe you can make an h-bomb with a gun-type trigger but I don't think one has ever been made. And even if you can you're talking the difference between having two nukes in your arsenal vs say twenty because of how inefficient the gun type is.
 
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BBC: "The benchmark oil price has dipped after US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran will end "very soon""

Presumably like covid did, Iran will disappear very soon, like a miracle?
 
SteveGrabowski said:
You think a couple of low yield nukes is going to stop the US or Israel? Shoot those pieces of crap at Tel Aviv and every city in your nation is going to be flattened by Minutemen III. Now if you can credibly show you have the ability to hit Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, etc with a bunch of H-bombs with yields in the range of hundreds of kilotons congrats, no one's gonna make a move on you just like no one does Kim Jong Un.

Maybe you can make an h-bomb with a gun-type trigger but I don't think one has ever been made. And even if you can you're talking the difference between having two nukes in your arsenal vs say twenty because of how inefficient the gun type is.
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I wouldn't care about the Tonnage of the Nuke vapourizing me.
 
SteveGrabowski said:
You think a couple of low yield nukes is going to stop the US or Israel? Shoot those pieces of crap at Tel Aviv and every city in your nation is going to be flattened by Minutemen III. Now if you can credibly show you have the ability to hit Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, etc with a bunch of H-bombs with yields in the range of hundreds of kilotons congrats, no one's gonna make a move on you just like no one does Kim Jong Un.

Maybe you can make an h-bomb with a gun-type trigger but I don't think one has ever been made. And even if you can you're talking the difference between having two nukes in your arsenal vs say twenty because of how inefficient the gun type is.
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'A couple of low yield nukes' is exactly what protects most countries. The modern era, full of insane despots notwithstanding, we've got almost a century without major world powers entering each others borders precisely because of 'a couple low yield nukes'.

As stated though, that may not be enough anymore.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/2031292740416200983

In answer to the question what the situation is in Israel: the level of damage is not remotely close to what Israel is doing in Iran and in Lebanon. The issue is that the Israeli government heavily censors any news regarding casualties and deaths, as well as actual missile hits.

We also get regular lies about the number of missiles/launchers Iran and Hizballah have and about Israeli "success" in taking such launchers out of action. Over the past few days missiles and rockets have hit Israel with regularity that is being officially denied. Alarms have sounded in the midst of rockets hitting. Advance warnings are often given without alarms sounding, placing responsibility for sheltering on citizens' shoulders. Information about hits is disseminated through unofficial channels. There are clearly hits on any number of "strategic" sites. We get no official information.

Tel Aviv has not been destroyed. Israel is destroying Tehran and Esfahan and Beirut. But Israel is deeply rattled and effectively paralyzed. People sit in cafes and rush to shelters or they are holed up at home. There is a pretense that everything is just on the verge of "normalization" and those pesky Iranians and Lebanese drag us into the "abyss". Those unfortunate enough not to shelter (there is no systemic policy of barring Non-Jews. Israel is heavily segregated) are at real risk of death. The number of salvos has dropped but remains stable.

Always important to say: what Israelis are incurring is not in the same universe as what Israelis are inflicting. Israel is committing crimes against humanity in Palestine, Lebanon and Iran. My point is to demonstrate that Israel is significantly less mighty than it would like the world to believe. That doesn't change the fact that most Israeli Jews support this criminal behavior.
 
KMFJD said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2031292740416200983

In answer to the question what the situation is in Israel: the level of damage is not remotely close to what Israel is doing in Iran and in Lebanon. The issue is that the Israeli government heavily censors any news regarding casualties and deaths, as well as actual missile hits.

We also get regular lies about the number of missiles/launchers Iran and Hizballah have and about Israeli "success" in taking such launchers out of action. Over the past few days missiles and rockets have hit Israel with regularity that is being officially denied. Alarms have sounded in the midst of rockets hitting. Advance warnings are often given without alarms sounding, placing responsibility for sheltering on citizens' shoulders. Information about hits is disseminated through unofficial channels. There are clearly hits on any number of "strategic" sites. We get no official information.

Tel Aviv has not been destroyed. Israel is destroying Tehran and Esfahan and Beirut. But Israel is deeply rattled and effectively paralyzed. People sit in cafes and rush to shelters or they are holed up at home. There is a pretense that everything is just on the verge of "normalization" and those pesky Iranians and Lebanese drag us into the "abyss". Those unfortunate enough not to shelter (there is no systemic policy of barring Non-Jews. Israel is heavily segregated) are at real risk of death. The number of salvos has dropped but remains stable.

Always important to say: what Israelis are incurring is not in the same universe as what Israelis are inflicting. Israel is committing crimes against humanity in Palestine, Lebanon and Iran. My point is to demonstrate that Israel is significantly less mighty than it would like the world to believe. That doesn't change the fact that most Israeli Jews support this criminal behavior.
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Shelters and safe rooms.

Gotta make small sacrifices so that Bibbi can have his legacy.

Unfortunately, land grabs are what created this mess and Bibbi is going all out now that Trump and Christo-crazy-shits run the US.

Let the next generation deal with it.

Little bit of Lebanon. Little bit of Syria. Little vit of Jordan. Erase the Palestinian issue (always interesting when somenof my peeps claim "there is no such thing as Palestinians...something something they are Egyptian and its all Egypts fault for not taking them. That territory belongs to us because its in the bible")
 
pauldun170 said:
Shelters and safe rooms.

Gotta make small sacrifices so that Bibbi can have his legacy.

Unfortunately, land grabs are what created this mess and Bibbi is going all out now that Trump and Christo-crazy-shits run the US.

Let the next generation deal with it.

Little bit of Lebanon. Little bit of Syria. Little vit of Jordan. Erase the Palestinian issue (always interesting when somenof my peeps claim "there is no such thing as Palestinians...something something they are Egyptian and its all Egypts fault for not taking them. That territory belongs to us because its in the bible")
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but they need those pieces of land for defensive purposes ! they always need a bit more...even the 1948 borders where insanely unequal
 
sandorski said:
I wouldn't care about the Tonnage of the Nuke vapourizing me.
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Really? You wouldn't care about the difference between these two scenarios?

15kt.jpg

210kt.jpg

That orange area is where you'd get third degree burns. The inner gray ring is where your house is destroyed by the blast wave. Top is a 15kt nuke like used on Hiroshima, bottom is 210kt H-bomb like North Korea has developed.
 
[DHT]Osiris said:
Who cares? You only need enough to halt military action against you.
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You also need to figure out a delivery system. It is one thing to develop a nuke, it is another to figure out the delivery system and then fit that "physics package" within the capability of the delivery system. The easiest way is to develop a system that can be dropped like a bomb, IE like how Little Boy and Fat Man where deployed. I don't see a Iranian bomber getting very far.
 
Brovane said:
You also need to figure out a delivery system. It is one thing to develop a nuke, it is another to figure out the delivery system and then fit that "physics package" within the capability of the delivery system. The easiest way is to develop a system that can be dropped like a bomb, IE like how Little Boy and Fat Man where deployed. I don't see a Iranian bomber getting very far.
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Far easier to just use a shipping container.
 
Brovane said:
You also need to figure out a delivery system. It is one thing to develop a nuke, it is another to figure out the delivery system and then fit that "physics package" within the capability of the delivery system. The easiest way is to develop a system that can be dropped like a bomb, IE like how Little Boy and Fat Man where deployed. I don't see a Iranian bomber getting very far.
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In the case of Israel you also need enough MRBMs to dry up their interceptor stocks and achieve penetration with the weapon.
 
[DHT]Osiris said:
Far easier to just use a shipping container.
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Groundburst is a waste of your nuclear material. Airburst does way more damage because you don't have the ground damping your blast wave as much and because the blast wave and its reflection off the ground constructively interfere if burst at the right altitude for a given yield.
 
SteveGrabowski said:
Groundburst is a waste of your nuclear material. Airburst does way way more damage because you don't have the ground damping your blast wave and because the blast wave and its reflection off the ground constructively interfere if burst at the right altitude for a given yield.
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Again, Iran doesn't need to be concerned with efficiency or even scale of destruction. The best version of a nuclear weapon is one you test once and make aware to your enemies you have more of. The second best version is anything that detonates in a city, regardless of size or capability. The message of a nuke is far, far more important than the nuke itself.

One detonation from a shipping container in a port anywhere in the world would shut down global shipping for a month or more.
 
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