Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: Craig234
Why are you still posting to me on this? The error was close to 20% not because the polling was nearly 20% off, but because the estimate of who would vote was far off.
Now you are just asking me to repeat myself, saying AGAIN that the poll can be perfectly accurate, and is still vulnerable to other factors from changing opinions to who will vote.
The point you made that was wrong is that the other poll's sample size was too small.
Zogby would have been off nearly 20% if he had sampled 4,000, 40,000 or 400,000.
& what about all the other polls?
You think this is the first time they have been wrong?
No, and I never said that.
Let's be clear: the topic of the discussion is your wrong claim that a sample size of 4,000 is too small to be accurate about the region of 6 nations and 80M people.
You refuse to deal with the error, and are now trying to pretend that the topic of the discussion is something I never said, that 'all polls, including election predictions, are right'.
What I have defended is the accuracy of the statistical formula involved in calculating the estimated error. I have described the caveats, such as how the statistical formula is based on an idea that real polling cannot meet, for completely random sampling, when in fact there are slight errors. I discussed how a larger error, such as the one you raised for an election, has issues that the original poll you attacked doesn't have, such as predicting who will vote - the source of the large error.
If you lack the intellectual integrity to say anything other than a dishonest attempt to pretend we were discussing another topic, you won't get away with it here in this thread.
Perhaps you *meant* to say that you think polls can be inaccurate, based on Zogby's error, leading you to conclude the ME poll is wrong, too.
If that's the case, you can have an adult, rational discussion where you are informed why those are two very different polls. You need to show an interest in the truth, not defending.
Recognize that your belief about the sampling size is wrong, and that if you can't be bothered to learn the facts, you shouldn't say what they are. I'm not attacking you for being wrong; we're all lacking knowledge about many things, and the sampling size suspicions are very common, as not many people have studied the statistical theory behind them. But the issue is when you obstinately, even obnoxiously, could care less to get the actual facts and keep bleating the same falsehoods when given the facts.
Now are you done wasting my time (and yours and the readers') by repeating the same errors, as if you think saying them enough will let you get them to become true?