Iran deal reached

[norseamd]

The nuclear negotiations with the Iranians has finally concluded with a deal. The lifting of sanctions will start in early 2016 in exchange for limited nuclear programs and access for inspections. In addition there is a ban on weapons sales to Iran for 5 more years and a ban on transfer or sale of missiles and missile technology to Iran for 8 more years from this year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/14/us-iran-nuclear-idUSKCN0PM0CE20150714

http://qz.com/452949/after-two-years-of-talks-an-iran-deal-has-been-sealed/

 

[Aristotelian]

And Netanyahu already has a Twitter account going, bashing this deal in Farsi?

On the sanctions relief, I'm wondering why it's being staggered out so slowly. The elements from the Joint Plan of Action are minimal (at best) and there's a lot of money at stake in the oil/gas/transport sectors up for grabs.

 

[sportage]

Well its either this deal, or Iran with a bomb.
And if as John McCain thinks, we can just bomb bomb bomb Iran willy nilly, you can say a big goodbye to the existence of Israel.
It's interesting Netanyahu believes no deal will save their ass.
In all reality, just the opposite is true.
But Netanyahu will never realize that until its much too late.
I think Netanyahu actually hoped for no deal simply because he can then drag the US into the conflict between Iran and Israel once that day comes when Iran indeed builds a bomb.
And put our very existence in jeopardy defending Israel from obliteration.

 

[ivwshane]

I eagerly await congresses attempt to fuck this deal up.

 

[spacejamz]

Wonder what the vegas odds are on Iran keeping their end of the deal?

 

[cabri]

Wonder what the vegas odds are on Iran keeping their end of the deal?

Iran has to deliver documentation to the IAEA in September and December.Link

Such will be the first step toward accountability.

It was nice to see the arms restrictions in place for 5 years.

Now, I need to read the details (devil) as to the inspections; that was a main sticking point.

 

[sm625]

On the sanctions relief, I'm wondering why it's being staggered out so slowly.

To save US tight oil producers?

 

[Jaskalas]

Well its either this deal, or Iran with a bomb.

Many feel that this "deal" means Iran with a bomb.

 

[Murloc]

apparently they gave in to the request of having international inspectors also on their military sites.

The other point of contention was the UN ban on weapons.
The compromise is to allow sale of dual use products soon, and according to OP it will be 5 years for actual weapons and 8 for ballistic missiles.

I think it's okay for them because their industry and economy need this the most.

Weapons and stuff - they're already making their own so maybe a further 5 years ban will be even useful for their defense industry, considering that all the high-tech dual use stuff will be available.
This will simply prevent immediate weapon sales from Russia and China subsequently going straight to the Popular Mobilization Forces. There is a huge grey/black market anyway, no need for new weapons to arm militias.

Ballistic missiles: necessary only if they want to destroy Saudi Arabia or Israel within the next 8 years. It isn't the case, otherwise they wouldn't have looked for a compromise.

I eagerly await congresses attempt to fuck this deal up.

I've read that the bill actually allows congress to cancel the removal of US sanctions, foreign policy stays with the president, and the UN sanctions will be lifted regardless.
So all they would accomplish is that in 5 years iranians will be buying European or Chinese weapons.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Now, I need to read the details (devil) as to the inspections; that was a main sticking point.

It seems BHO and kerry caved on the "anytime/anywhere" inspections. So this "deal" is a pretty worthless one IMO.

 

[boomerang]

Many feel that this "deal" means Iran with a bomb.

That's a given. What's important is that they won't have one on Obama's watch.

 

[Aristotelian]

That's a given. What's important is that they won't have one on Obama's watch.

A breakout capacity is given, once a nuclear program is in place. But having a weapon is not a given.

On Iran keeping their end of the bargain - they stand to gain a huge amount of money if they do so. The EU sanctions against Iran on gas trade alone threatened a 1.5bn-2bn PER DAY gas export, let alone the oil trade - and to the previous poster who referred to US oil trade, the fact of the matter is that Greece's transport industry was hammered by EU sanctions against Iranian oil (transport, import, export, etc.) which had a rippling effect on their economy (unfortunately not represented in the press, much).

On my view, it's unfortunate that a lot of political rhetoric gets in the way of seeing the truth: the sanctions against Iran are the most comprehensive ever drafted, and were designed (eventually) to collapse their economy. Regardless of political rhetoric, the average citizen in Iran should be extremely happy that: a) they'll get a nuclear program; b) eventually sanctions will be unraveled; and c) this will come at the cost of 'losing face' insofar as inspectors will have x and y access and reports will have to be done, blah blah.

Win-win, for EU-USA-Iran, if Iran lives up to their end of the bargain, which I think they will.

 

[fskimospy]

I for one am excited to see various conservative politicians and outlets that haven't even read the deal fall over each other in their race to denounce it as the second coming of Neville Chamberlain.

 

[boomerang]

Win-win, for EU-USA-Iran, if Iran lives up to their end of the bargain, which I think they will.

Oh yes. Historically, they've been a very trustworthy bunch.

Oh, and there's this. http://www.state.gov/j/ct/list/c14151.htm

 

[Jhhnn]

It seems BHO and kerry caved on the "anytime/anywhere" inspections. So this "deal" is a pretty worthless one IMO.

Your whining about it is pretty worthless. No weapons grade materials, no bombs. It's tough to hide an enrichment facility, even tougher to hide production of HEU after the fact.

Right wing demagoguery requires enemies, however, so the purveyors of it will be a bit bereft.

 

[Jhhnn]

That's a given. What's important is that they won't have one on Obama's watch.

How would they do that in either case, given constant monitoring of their production facilities by the IAEA?

Would you say mothballing much of their production capacity & downblending current stocks of LEU would help or hinder bomb making capabilities?

Would you say backing away from our forced regime change stance gives them more reasons to make bombs, or fewer?

Fear mongering will only carry the Right just so far, and it's not far enough this time. It's been degrading to observe how that's been used to manipulate my fellow citizens of the greatest nation ever created like frightened children.

Kiss Bibi for all of us, OK?

 

[Aristotelian]

Oh yes. Historically, they've been a very trustworthy bunch.

Oh, and there's this. http://www.state.gov/j/ct/list/c14151.htm

Oh, the emoticons have already come out. How enlightening.

I've worked on sanctions and security policy for many years (fyi - and this is unofficial commentary) so linking me to the State Department website doesn't really show anything to me except for the fact that you're being rather one-sided, with your scrutiny applying only to Iran.

Where are the Executive Orders and designations regarding Israel's continual violation of international law? Ever heard of the MEPP? Israel's government never sponsored terrorism? Here's my answer to my own question: LOL!

In short, rational self-interest trumps all. The final unraveling of economic sanctions against Iran will increase Iranian government revenue generation (who own many of the oil/gas interests) by billion+ USD per DAY. And if they are smart enough to use this to rebuild Iran's economy, they can become a regional powerhouse, especially diversifying their energy supply away from fossil fuels and using nuclear power instead.

Better quality of life for their citizens, more investment in their universities, more openness from foreign diplomats - heck, they could even start their own positive Iranian propaganda campaigns as the Israelis do about themselves.

 

[Meghan54]

Many feel that this "deal" means Iran with a bomb.

Like Israel already has and refuses to admit?

 

[Jhhnn]

In short, rational self-interest trumps all.

This time, anyway. That wasn't true when the Neocons were in charge.

 

[sportage]

Well...
On Fox, seems everyone HATES the deal.
No surprise.
So, here we go again....
A black man, once again, being all uppity and daring to run the country.
And John Boehner lining up the bobbleheads, the usual suspects, against the deal before reading it. And thats giving them a lot of credit that they can read in the first place.

Iran already has enough material to make several atomic bombs right now, today.
And the Soviet Union would be more than happy to ensure Iran also gain the capability to deliver nuclear weapons.

Again, Netanyahu has one goal, that is to derail any deal because he wants the US to bear the full burden, and the heavy cost, for defending Israel.
Netanyahu would love to see America get into a bombing war against Iran, regardless the risk of involving the Soviets, with costing America trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives. While Netanyahu sits there.
And if that eventually empowered Iran with the help of the Soviets to deliver a nuclear weapon into the United States, so be it appears to be Netanyahu's opinion.

Naturally, Netanyahu wants the Untied States to bear the full burden and would be tickled pink if that involved a full blown war between America and Iran.
Netanyahu made it quite clear where he's coming from.
He wants to drag us into a war with Iran.
And add the Soviet Union into the mix, we're no longer talking drones and conventual weapons, were now talking Rapture time full blown nuclear war.
Or, maybe that is where the republicans are coming from?
They want the Rapture? Hmmmmm

 

[Jhhnn]

Well...
On Fox, seems everyone HATES the deal.
No surprise.
So, here we go again....
A black man, once again, being all uppity and daring to run the country.
And John Boehner lining up the bobbleheads, the usual suspects, against the deal before reading it. And thats giving them a lot of credit that they can read in the first place.

Iran already has enough material to make several atomic bombs right now, today.
And the Soviet Union would be more than happy to ensure Iran also gain the capability to deliver nuclear weapons.

Again, Netanyahu has one goal, that is to derail any deal because he wants the US to bear the full burden, and the heavy cost, for defending Israel.
Netanyahu would love to see America get into a bombing war against Iran, regardless the risk of involving the Soviets, with costing America trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives. While Netanyahu sits there.
And if that eventually empowered Iran with the help of the Soviets to deliver a nuclear weapon into the United States, so be it appears to be Netanyahu's opinion.

Naturally, Netanyahu wants the Untied States to bear the full burden and would be tickled pink if that involved a full blown war between America and Iran.
Netanyahu made it quite clear where he's coming from.
He wants to drag us into a war with Iran.
And add the Soviet Union into the mix, we're no longer talking drones and conventual weapons, were now talking Rapture time full blown nuclear war.
Or, maybe that is where the republicans are coming from?
They want the Rapture? Hmmmmm

Kee-rist. Just stop with the speculative fear mongering, OK?

You could have written the script for Benghazi! with your talent.

 

[Meghan54]

Oh yes. Historically, they've been a very trustworthy bunch.

Oh, and there's this. http://www.state.gov/j/ct/list/c14151.htm

I do understand the trepidation we, in this country, have with the "deal" brokered with Iran.

But, as far as Iran being "trustworthy", guess that puts us as being completely untrustworthy, at least in Iran's view, since the U.S. and the UK fomented an overthrow of Iran's democratically and duly elected government in the 1950's.....all over oil.

Yeah, we're so very trustworthy........

 

[Blackjack200]

Fantastic news. Could lead to reduced isolation. Long road from here, but this was the hardest step. Best part is that it keeps us out of war.

 

[Jaskalas]

14 days prior notice for inspection.
Do nuclear watchdogs think that's credible?

I really am just picturing them being lead around on a leash with zero authority and no real access. I am extremely skeptical after North Korea, Iran's buddy. They might as well be using the same playbook to achieve the same goal.

And it's going to work because we are more afraid of stopping nuclear proliferation - than we are of nuclear proliferation.

The American playbook seems to be to greenlight Iran's nuclear weapons program and trying to appease them beforehand. Make them happy, make them less hostile. Lift sanctions, restore their economy. Give them wealth and power... and when the inevitable nuclear weapons are finally revealed - maybe they won't be so nutter crazy against us, or hell bent on using them in a suicide pact for their 12th Imam.

Maybe we'll bribe them out of being martyrs... it's only nuclear war hanging in the balance. No big deal...

 

[VRAMdemon]

Its wonderful watching Bill "I have been wrong about everything" Kristol head explode. It's very hard for some to come to terms with the idea that the US "cannot bludgeon Iran into submission" -- that any military action or even increased sanctions is likely to increase Iran's resolve to acquire a nuclear weapon rather than the opposite. Lifting of sanctions and some economic recovery in Iran, chances are that it will strengthen the position of the pro-western part of society. It's very encouraging to see an administration realizing that we need to talk to our adversaries, rather than declare them to be part of some "axis of evil" nonsense.