I had to go feed the grandmonsters ahh but, now I've a chance to respond.
First: I don't have a link to my opinion. I looked but no one reported anyone who feels exactly like me... so sans the link I'll opine.
Second: You are among the few whose opinion ought to be held in the highest of esteem. If someone points to your prognostication and smirks, if wrong, at some later date they should be rendered mute and moot.
I view all the goings on from my bias which is; what would I do in the same or similar situation. I fear I'd do exactly as you propose they would do. Why not? They can secure help in the establishment of the reactor facilities to obviate potential melt down scenerios. They can secure their sovereigness through seemingly rational relations with the US and the UN. They are aligned through religious ties (I believe) to all the "stans" of the former Soviet Union who, as I recall, had some issue with Russia and had some nuke stuff lost in their terroritory. They have some internal issues to deal with that must be deUSafied before they can propose some "in your face" attitude with the UN/US. Once this internal issue is sorted out they can be as moderate as they wish while intensifying their security issues. They seem not disposed to the invasion of another nation but, with India/Pakistan and Kashmire always on the burner they must feel some of these issues may result in the need to defend against a area wide war. So, In conclusion, Iran should and probably will adopt a wait and see for public consumption while attaining mainly defensive nuke munitions.