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Interesting note on polls

IHateMyJob2004

IHateMyJob2004

Lifer
From the "News from the Votemaster" section.

Turns out that only landlines are used for polling. What does this mean? That those swing states might not be swing states, but Kerry states. Why?

The future belongs to the young. And maybe the election, too. Gallup did a survey among first time voters and determined that they prefer Kerry to Bush by a huge margin, 50% to 35%. First time voters are primarily in the 18-29 year age range. This is the same population that may have been undersampled in the polls because many of them have only a cell phone and no landline.
Click to expand...

There is a second study on the page that is pointed out htat backs this.
 
This has been discussed before, but right now no one can say for sure how much, if any, this will play. We'll have to wait until AFTER the election to know for sure.
 
Originally posted by: Darkhawk28
This has been discussed before, but right now no one can say for sure how much, if any, this will play. We'll have to wait until AFTER the election to know for sure.
Click to expand...

Oh.... sorry for there possible repost. Never noticed the threads in the past though.

Yup. I agree it's probably jsut a sit and wait scenerio at this point. If people arn't decided yet, I'd be shocked.
 
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Originally posted by: Darkhawk28
This has been discussed before, but right now no one can say for sure how much, if any, this will play. We'll have to wait until AFTER the election to know for sure.
Click to expand...

Oh.... sorry for there possible repost. Never noticed the threads in the past though.

Yup. I agree it's probably jsut a sit and wait scenerio at this point. If people arn't decided yet, I'd be shocked.
Click to expand...

I don't think there's ever been a thread specifically for this subject (although I may be wrong), so I don't think this is a repost, per se.
 
There are plenty of undecideds out there because there are plenty of people who have NO CLUE about the election. Many people wait until the weekend before the election to pay attention. And, people who say they are for the incumbent will often tell a poller his name because they often don't know or don't remember the challenger's name. In my interviews with voters, I'd say about 1% are as well versed in the issues as your average P & N poster. Scary! One woman told me she wasn't voting for Kerry because he supported Gay Marriage. One guy told me he wasn't voting for Bush because he supported Gay Marriage!!!! Just strike up a conversation with almost anyone and you will find that most people vote based upon a fuzzy IMPRESSION, not upon the facts. They don't really care enough to find out. It's intellectual heavy lifting for many of them.

Democracy-IT AIN'T PRETTY! (But, whatcha' got better?)

-Robert
 
Originally posted by: chess9
There are plenty of undecideds out there because there are plenty of people who have NO CLUE about the election. Many people wait until the weekend before the election to pay attention. And, people who say they are for the incumbent will often tell a poller his name because they often don't know or don't remember the challenger's name. In my interviews with voters, I'd say about 1% are as well versed in the issues as your average P & N poster. Scary! One woman told me she wasn't voting for Kerry because he supported Gay Marriage. One guy told me he wasn't voting for Bush because he supported Gay Marriage!!!! Just strike up a conversation with almost anyone and you will find that most people vote based upon a fuzzy IMPRESSION, not upon the facts. They don't really care enough to find out. It's intellectual heavy lifting for many of them.

Democracy-IT AIN'T PRETTY! (But, whatcha' got better?)

-Robert
Click to expand...

I know atleast one co-worker that has said this indirectly. At the same time I also figured out that my suspicions of his sexual orientation were correct. There is a large community out htere that WILL vote against Bush.

I am aware of pros from both sides. I'm basically voting based on the "lesser of to evils" in my mind. To bad the media is theater and not media. Man, John Stewart nailed it right on the head. It's theater. Even my 70 year old mom agreed (shockingly).
 
this site is getting pretty stupid yesterday Michigan was pretty stong kerry now its swung too a dead heat in 1 day.
 
Originally posted by: Falloutboy
this site is getting pretty stupid yesterday Michigan was pretty stong kerry now its swung too a dead heat in 1 day.
Click to expand...
The site has a terrible set of rules for averaging polls.. it could be more informative than it is.. but sadly it's awful.

It does seem to show Bush solidifying his support in stronghold states, with Kerry having better luck in some of the battleground areas. Meaning Kerry is pretty vulnerable when so many of his 'predicted' votes are in states with margins of 3%ish.
 
I dunno, people are fickle creatures. I bet if Bush walked into a press conference in the Rose Garden carrying a silver platter, lifted the lid to reveal bin Laden's head, he'd win in a landslide just because everyone would change their minds in a heartbeat. It'd be like John Kerry posessed the whole country and we all suddenly flip-flopped!

Jason

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Yup. I agree it's probably jsut a sit and wait scenerio at this point. If people arn't decided yet, I'd be shocked.
Click to expand...

 
dma:

I think you've played one too many video games....
No one here is going to change their vote, so why do you think anyone else would?
How old are you?

-Robert
 
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