interesting florida election stats

[charrison]

florida voter fraud

 

[Russ]

That's a "Right Wing Rag" site. It must be a lie.

Russ, NCNE

 

[DefRef]

I only skimmed through it,but it looks like more evidence of Democratic fraud. What else can you expect from this gang? Too bad that the article is sooooooooooo loooooooooooooong, it's too much to read on a screen. They should've broken it into multiple pages or something.

Also, prepare to be flamed out of existence for daring to use a right-wing source.

 

[ride525]

WARNING -- THIS MAY BE CONSIDERED MY FIRST PRO BUSH POST.....

I tried reading it and a LOT of it doesn't make sense to me, partially because it is poorly written and partially, because his assumptions seem invalid.

BUT.....and this is a big BUT for you BUSH fans, don't go away yet, I'm about to AGREE with some of this article........I think the article alleges 15,000 double punched BUSH + GORE.

I've looked at the Palm Beach ballot online and I think it's pretty easy to vote for BUSH. And I've posted before that there is some confusion when you try to vote for GORE, since GORE is listed second on the left, but you have to push the third hole. So, I'd allege that GORE and BUCHANAN could get mixed up.

However, GORE is the first hole, and BUSH is the third hole. It's hard for me to see if very many of those should get mixed up and double punched. Maybe a few, by some random means but not 15,000 for gosh sakes! And besides that, voters searching for BUSH aren't going to get near GORE's punch hole, and vice versa.

IF, there REALLY are 15,000 GORE + BUSH double punches this WOULD BE quite a story!

I'd like to know the following:

1. Were there really 15,000 GORE + BUSH double punches in Palm Beach?
2. What is the rate of double punches in Palm Beach vs. the rest of Florida

If any of this is true, this is a HUGE story. But the Republicans must know this, stats like this are available, and I'm sure there are a lot of Republicans looking at this much closer than I, and this SHOULD have been spun by the Republicans.....

It's hard for me to believe, at this point, that this info is true. Otherwise, it would have been pointed out by the Republicans. I'm going to look for some confirmation of the data.

 

[poop]

I love his math: 'bush + gore'

I hope we never see what that equals. *shudder*

But really, what kind of statistics is this guy using? I am confused. a 750 vote gain for Gore less than a %0.08 deviation. I don't know how much stats you guys have had, but a %0.08 deviation is not a whole lot. The chances of that kind of change seem much greater than 1/149,000,000.

I DO think it is fishy that Gore gained so many in one county, but Mr. Cook is throwing around some VERY serious allegations. I need proof to be moved in either direction on this issue. All I hear are accusations from one side against the other.

 

[Michael]

I doubt the reasoning behind the article becuase of a few reason:

1) If he was really doing a statistical analysis, he would've listed out the math. He explains none of the math (what passes as explnations are very hard to follow and I work with numbers all day)

2) This would have been all over the media by now as the Republicans want to attack PBC. Of course, it would force a recount if massive fraud was found, it is one of the criteria for a recount.

Michael

 

[Format C:]

My God! Somebody come up with some explanations as to why this CAN'T be true. There has to be a way to disprove it. If this has even a remote possibility of truth then I'm ashamed to be an American.

 

[ride525]

Format C:

My final take on this is that the data that is prestented just can't be true....otherwise some Republicans would have seen it already and have done the same analysis I did...

But, if someone can find a more reliable source that says there were 15,000 Gore + Bush double punches I'll follow up personally somehow.
Even though I've been supporting most of Gore's position on this.

 

[FlashG]

Fuzzy math.

One thing I learned in my MBA Stat class. You can prove anything you want to prove using (weighted) Statistics.

 

[charrison]

As they say, lies, damn lies and statistics, but it does appear something is
fishy here

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

This is interesting reading, but the source is, to me, somewhat questionable, as are the sinister interpretations he gives to otherwise-ambiguous data. Here is an interesting article from a reputable source about another county (Duval) in which double-punched ballots apparently hurt Gore, with explanation that makes some sense; he makes an allusion to the county in his article.

 

[Russ]

<< The sky is falling.. The sky is falling >>



Yep, Red, it fell on the democrats heads in court this morning.

As I told Ride in an eMail, it's an interesting argument, but to believe it, I'd need proof. It would NOT surprise me to find that it happened. A couple of people could do it in a few hours, BUT, because of the security surrounding vote tabulations, it would also require the participation of a supervisor as this would be the only way to set it up so there were no prying eyes.

Russ, NCNE

 

[ride525]

Thanks Russ,

I haven't looked at the email yet, but will in a minute. EDIT: tried to answer, but for some reason failed to send. Email wasn't very different from post below, anyway.

If ANYBODY can find a reliable source on the statistics of the of the 20,000 ballots that were rejected in Palm Beach, I'd like to see.

If anything approaching 15,000 were GORE + BUSH double punches I WILL follow-up. And it won't just be on this thread, it will be much, much farther.

 

[Format C:]

Red, I've had enough of the personal attacks. I know that you can't help but stir $hit because thats what dung beetles live for. Just go stir it in somebody else's back yard now because you aren't welcome in mine any more. You think you're going to keep stirring until you get somebody else banned don't you? That'd really make you cream wouldn't it big man? Anybody with half a brain can see that thats the only thing that gives your petty little life meaning. Why don't you take a break and go do what you really do best of all. Roll up another fat one, grab another bottle, tune out and contemplate the mysteries of the universe, you stupid jackass.

 

[cxim]

there were 29,709 ballots rejected in PB county

counts in PB county

The only breakdown was that given by the canvassing board from the sample ( 1%) manual recount. I do not recall the numbers. that also was not a random represenative sample, but one from precincts picked by democrats.

one can not draw any valid conclusions at this point.

 

[ride525]

Cxim,

Thanks....I also found that, last night....

I'd like to know the breakdown of ALL the rejected ballots in Palm Beach.

Is it true that 15,000 were double punched for Gore + Bush? There is NO way that could have happened by chance, not with the way the ballot is set up.

But, again, I'd guess that the site pointed to at the top of the thread has bogus info. Otherwise others could have done the same analysis I did and came to the same conclusion.

If I find out differently I WILL follow up.....

 

[ride525]

Red,

I don't know if I want to get involved, but he did say &quot;If&quot;, which may indicate that he doesn't believe, but just &quot;if&quot; it was found to be true he'd be upset.

If I find that there are 15,000 punches for Gore + Bush, I&quot;m going to be UPSET too. REALLY REALLY upset.

I just haven't found any statistics one way or the other regarding the 20,000 Palm Beach rejected ballots.

 

[Pennstate]

Hey Format c:, I heard from from my pyschic hotline friends that you have 2 noses. I am sure it's true. Don't shoot the messanger.🙂

 

[ride525]

<< What is actually silly is taking what is said in these threads seriously. >>



So, are you calling me silly?

😉 😉 😉 😉

 

[I'm Typing]

I took more than a few classes in statistics in college and while I cannot claim to have the mathematical acumen of this gentleman, I would like to respectfully point out a few things:

1) Nowhere in his analysis does he take into consideration the &quot;butterfly ballot&quot; effect. As a statistician, he should KNOW that the only way to compare &quot;apples to apples&quot; is to go to other areas of the country that use the same kind of ballot, with the same hole pattern.

2) The way the article is worded, the person seems to be assuming vote fraud, and then trying to find ways to justify the opinion, not the other way around. I have heard nowhere the exact composition of the &quot;double punched&quot; ballots i.e.; for whom these ballots were for...and as someone who works in Palm Beach County and listened on the radio to this whole mess unfold, I know for a FACT that some of the things this guy said are dead wrong:

ONLY Palm Beach County Florida voters seem incapable of understanding and using this style of ballot.

This is incorrect, since the entire state was not using these ballots. Since the entire state was not using these ballots, it is statistically IMPOSSIBLE to link what happens in Palm Beach to the other counties in the state.

Also, I know that there Bush people were here as quickly as the Gore people, for reasons which nobody outside the state seems to know...these problems were being brought to light starting about 7:30 on ELECTION DAY, not the NEXT day. Thousands of people might have felt they screwed up because of the reports on the TV and radio that started shortly after the polls opened; to accuse Gore's people of &quot;calling residents to ask them if they were unsure of the vote&quot; is dumb because people were calling radio talk programs and saying the same thing before the vote was finished that day.

3) This individual mixes and matches his numbers:
He uses figures from the last election vs this one without showing a causal relationship
He then highlights an &quot;apples vs. oranges&quot; argument between vote problems in Florida and in Illinois as supporting his argument, when in fact it refutes it.

One can only conclude that the man has utilized flawed statistical analysis at best and an axe to grind at worst.

Finally, I am sorry to say that just because this guy might be a statistician in construction projects, that does not mean a damn thing when we are talking about voter irregularities...as he proved by using &quot;fuzzy math!&quot;