Interesting.... A believable doomsday theory?

[GrumpyMan]

All these kind of articles seem to come out when the oil companies raise their prices and need to justify it.

 

[Fritzo]

I read an article on fuel cell technology last week and firmly beleive that this is the way we will be going for power. All houses and buildings will generate their own power, dramatically lessening the need for fossil fuels. Also, cars with this method of power will be available within the next 10 years. If the US went even 50% to fuel cells, the middle east would become a 3rd world disaster area as they depend on oil sales for income. They would have little influence, no money coming in, and become really hungry. Wars would no doubt then errupt....so it's a lose/lose senario

 

[hg321]

Originally posted by: GrumpyMan
All these kind of articles seem to come out when the oil companies raise their prices and need to justify it.

amazing isn't it.

 

[So]

Originally posted by: Fritzo
I read an article on fuel cell technology last week and firmly beleive that this is the way we will be going for power. All houses and buildings will generate their own power, dramatically lessening the need for fossil fuels. Also, cars with this method of power will be available within the next 10 years. If the US went even 50% to fuel cells, the middle east would become a 3rd world disaster area as they depend on oil sales for income. They would have little influence, no money coming in, and become really hungry. Wars would no doubt then errupt....so it's a lose/lose senario

Agreed. I think part of this turmoil is that people in the middle east, at least subconsciously, realize that sooner, rather than later, their source of income will dry up. They realize that much like spain during the sixteenth century (thanks to American colonies), they have squandered their gold and that when the oil dries up, so will the money. Just like last time, almost every dollar we spend there comes back here or goes to europe and asia...i.e. where the actual production is. They have failed to invest their found money, and much like a janitor that wins the lotto, a fool and his money is soon parted.

 

[MrDudeMan]

Originally posted by: So

Originally posted by: Fritzo
I read an article on fuel cell technology last week and firmly beleive that this is the way we will be going for power. All houses and buildings will generate their own power, dramatically lessening the need for fossil fuels. Also, cars with this method of power will be available within the next 10 years. If the US went even 50% to fuel cells, the middle east would become a 3rd world disaster area as they depend on oil sales for income. They would have little influence, no money coming in, and become really hungry. Wars would no doubt then errupt....so it's a lose/lose senario

Agreed. I think part of this turmoil is that people in the middle east, at least subconsciously, realize that sooner, rather than later, their source of income will dry up. They realize that much like spain during the sixteenth century (thanks to American colonies), they have squandered their gold and that when the oil dries up, so will the money. Just like last time, almost every dollar we spend there comes back here or goes to europe and asia...i.e. where the actual production is. They have failed to invest their found money, and much like a janitor that wins the lotto, a fool and his money is soon parted.

i was with you the whole time, until this part. im not sure how you can make that connection since not every janitor would blow all the money. the guys that blow all the money are the athletes, not the workers.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: So

Originally posted by: Skoorb
A lot of people are under the silly cry wolf assumption that just because some predictors have been wrong in the past they are doomed to be wrong for eternity, and in fact we'll never run out of oil.

I never said anything of the sort.

I will though....

Actually, I would be VERY SHOCKED if all oil runs out in my lifetime (and I plan on living a good long while) but I am confidant that the oil supply will drop off drastically in the next 50 years, maybe even less than thirty, but I am sure that as this happens, the natural laws of economics will take care of things and the western, energy wasting, capitalist lifestyle will go on, with even more energy to play with than before.

I don't think you really understand, but I sure do hope you're right.

To those comparing it to the oil crisis of the 70s, it is apples to oranges. As the page says, the oil crisis of the 70s was political, this is geological.


For our sake, I really do hope we find some gigantic oil reserve somewhere. The article says that of the 120 largest reserves that produce 50% of our oil, 14 produce 20%. The average age of those 14 wells is some 43 years.

Think about it.

Am glad this thread got more attention. Have stuff to do, be back later.

 

[DrPizza]

No one's considered just going to methane yet? There's enough methane hydrate deposits to supply several generations worth of energy needs. Methane hydrate was only discovered in the past couple decades and little research has been done on it. Right now, there's no practical way to extract it, but it's only a matter of time and research before they come up with an efficient method. The amount of hydrate is estimated to be more than twice all of the world's conventional gas, oil, and coal reserves put together.

 

[alkemyst]

Originally posted by: DrPizza
No one's considered just going to methane yet? There's enough methane hydrate deposits to supply several generations worth of energy needs. Methane hydrate was only discovered in the past couple decades and little research has been done on it. Right now, there's no practical way to extract it, but it's only a matter of time and research before they come up with an efficient method. The amount of hydrate is estimated to be more than twice all of the world's conventional gas, oil, and coal reserves put together.

In theory anyway There are a lot of methods not brought up.

Fact is without oil I am sure we will see a 'hiccup' on our technological path....but seriously in the whole scheme of things we lasted longer in time without it than with it.

Å

 

[RaiderJ]

Originally posted by: farmercal
...
Regardless, we will run out of oil in my lifetime. I am 22.
...

Umm.... no. According to various studies, our oil reserves were supposed to be depleted already. This oil schtick has been around forever.

Some of you people are such suckers for the media.

 

[Valhalla1]

damn.. I'm packing my bags to live in some cabin in the mountains off the power grid and start stockpiling weapons

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: RaiderJ

Originally posted by: farmercal
...
Regardless, we will run out of oil in my lifetime. I am 22.
...

Umm.... no. According to various studies, our oil reserves were supposed to be depleted already. This oil schtick has been around forever.

Some of you people are such suckers for the media.

Say what? What studies are those? You mean studies done before we had the technology to accurately measure the ammount of oil left in the ground? Ok, in that case, you're right.

Sorry, but you are wrong. Even the most optimistic studies, the ones that assume we will find an oil supply equal to the supply found in the Middle East, give us 40 years.

It's simple math.

...the great majority of these studies reflect a consensus among oil experts that EUR oil reserves lie within the range of 1,800 to 2,200 billion (109) barrels...

As of the end of 1999, the world had consumed about 857 billion barrels of these ultimately recoverable reserves.

Given these estimates of recoverable oil, and plausible assumptions of moderate growth in demand (about 2 percent per year), we can use a simple model to calculate when world oil production might begin to decline, driven by resource constraints.

At the low end, for EUR oil equal to 1,800 billion barrels, peaking could occur as early as 2007;


at the high end (2,200 billion barrels), peaking could occur around 2013. (An implausibly high 2,600 billion barrels for EUR oil would postpone peaking only another six years -- to 2019.)

I sure do hope I'm around in 2020. Some believe we have peaked as of 2000.

If oil demand were held constant at today's level -- through some such measure as a carbon tax or a cap on carbon releases -- the time of decline could be delayed by decades.

This is what I mean by we need to do something, and fast. Unless we do do something, and are proactive about it, we are going to end up in a bind.


Do you not understand? Oil production is not going up, it is going down. That is why many believe we have already peaked.

I hate to be an alarmist, and I am not really, but there are no studies that say my generation will be dead before we run out of oil. It is a certainty, barring some major changes in the way the world uses oil.

And like I said, it isn't going to be like a faucet shutting off, that is unrealistic. However, it will result in it being considerably more expensive than it is now. And that means everything that requires energy to be moved or produced will also be more expensive. It's a slippery slope.

You're a fool if you don't at least acknowledge that we must do something about it and quickly. Did you even read the site(s) or the posts in this thread?

 

[So]

Originally posted by: MrDudeMan

Originally posted by: So

Originally posted by: Fritzo
I read an article on fuel cell technology last week and firmly beleive that this is the way we will be going for power. All houses and buildings will generate their own power, dramatically lessening the need for fossil fuels. Also, cars with this method of power will be available within the next 10 years. If the US went even 50% to fuel cells, the middle east would become a 3rd world disaster area as they depend on oil sales for income. They would have little influence, no money coming in, and become really hungry. Wars would no doubt then errupt....so it's a lose/lose senario

Agreed. I think part of this turmoil is that people in the middle east, at least subconsciously, realize that sooner, rather than later, their source of income will dry up. They realize that much like spain during the sixteenth century (thanks to American colonies), they have squandered their gold and that when the oil dries up, so will the money. Just like last time, almost every dollar we spend there comes back here or goes to europe and asia...i.e. where the actual production is. They have failed to invest their found money, and much like a janitor that wins the lotto, a fool and his money is soon parted.

i was with you the whole time, until this part. im not sure how you can make that connection since not every janitor would blow all the money. the guys that blow all the money are the athletes, not the workers.

I know, I know, I just thought it was a funny phrase. It really is a logical fallacy, as clearly not every lotto winner will blow it all, etc...

Please dirsregard everything after 'found money'

 

[RaiderJ]

It's simple math.

And of course our "math" now is perfect, just as it was 30 years ago.

It's all just hype. Oil production will probably decrease over the next couple decades, but we'll have another source of power by then. Oil is hardly the scarcity that everyone would like you to believe.

The price of energy will ALWAYS increase, and we always need MORE energy. This hasn't ever changed.

You can find studies by professionals to prove/disprove anything. The links/sites/posts are just that.

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: RaiderJ

It's simple math.

And of course our "math" now is perfect, just as it was 30 years ago.

It's all just hype. Oil production will probably decrease over the next couple decades, but we'll have another source of power by then. Oil is hardly the scarcity that everyone would like you to believe.

The price of energy will ALWAYS increase, and we always need MORE energy. This hasn't ever changed.

You can find studies by professionals to prove/disprove anything. The links/sites/posts are just that.

Shrug. We clearly were not out of oil 30 years ago, and anybody saying that we were was uneducated.

It is because of people like you that we will run into problems. The first step is realizing that we are running out before it is too late. Like I said, it seems to be human nature to ignore problems until they are so pressing that you cannot ignore them anymore.

It is easy to ignore right now. What about when gasoline is 3 or 4$ a gallon? It won't be so hard to ignore then.

I still stand by my prediction, we will see the virtual demise of the sub-20MPG automobile within the next 20 years.

 

[MournSanity]

This is a REPOST. Sorry, but somebody had to say it.

 

[RaiderJ]

Originally posted by: Eli

Originally posted by: RaiderJ

It's simple math.

And of course our "math" now is perfect, just as it was 30 years ago.

It's all just hype. Oil production will probably decrease over the next couple decades, but we'll have another source of power by then. Oil is hardly the scarcity that everyone would like you to believe.

The price of energy will ALWAYS increase, and we always need MORE energy. This hasn't ever changed.

You can find studies by professionals to prove/disprove anything. The links/sites/posts are just that.

Shrug. We clearly were not out of oil 30 years ago, and anybody saying that we were was uneducated.

It is because of people like you that we will run into problems. The first step is realizing that we are running out before it is too late. Like I said, it seems to be human nature to ignore problems until they are so pressing that you cannot ignore them anymore.

It is easy to ignore right now. What about when gasoline is 3 or 4$ a gallon? It won't be so hard to ignore then.

I still stand by my prediction, we will see the virtual demise of the sub-20MPG automobile within the next 20 years.

They did not say we were out of oil, they said we WOULD BE out of oil about this time 30 years ago.... just like people today say now we will be out 30 years from today. See any connections there? Those "professionals" back then were just as right as the "professionals" are today.

The cost of gasoline is largely due to TAXES and POLITICS. The actual cost of oil isn't reflected as much at the pump as you might think. Plus, gasoline is already that much in some places. Been to Canada? It's priced by the liter and comes to something around $3-4 a gallon.

We probably will see the demise of sub-20MPG vehicles. New forms of energy will hopefully make vehicles much more economical and efficient.

You put too much responsibility in the hands of the average consumer (people like me I suppose?). You want a good look into the future? Watch what the military does. They are far more long-sighted that any average consumer. See what technologies/energies they invest their time and energy into.

Edit: Guess how much Red Bull costs per gallon! It makes gas seem WAY cheap.

 

[Joemonkey]

oil prices are rising simply because the oil producers are scared alternative fuels will take off within the next 10 years.

they're getting their money while the demand for oil is there

btw, any of you grammatically/spelling impaired people can use the above sentence as necessary

 

[Eli]

Originally posted by: RaiderJ

They did not say we were out of oil, they said we WOULD BE out of oil about this time 30 years ago.... just like people today say now we will be out 30 years from today. See any connections there? Those "professionals" back then were just as right as the "professionals" are today.

The cost of gasoline is largely due to TAXES and POLITICS. The actual cost of oil isn't reflected as much at the pump as you might think. Plus, gasoline is already that much in some places. Been to Canada? It's priced by the liter and comes to something around $3-4 a gallon.

We probably will see the demise of sub-20MPG vehicles. New forms of energy will hopefully make vehicles much more economical and efficient.

You put too much responsibility in the hands of the average consumer (people like me I suppose?). You want a good look into the future? Watch what the military does. They are far more long-sighted that any average consumer. See what technologies/energies they invest their time and energy into.

Edit: Guess how much Red Bull costs per gallon! It makes gas seem WAY cheap.

I do understand what you're saying. And yes, I've realized that Coca Cola is more expensive than gasoline for a long time.

Yep, I know that gasoline is 4-5$ a gallon in Canada and Europe. That is what I'm saying. People would die if it were that much here.

They were saying that we would be out of oil soon when they first discovered they could power engines and automobiles with it. But back then they had absolutely no clue as to how much was in the ground.

You do have to pay some attention to it, because there are some pretty credible sources saying "uh oh".